Autumn

[summer blizzard]

2006 raises the peril of what can happen to cold pooling, because it actually got the -15C isotherm on the 19th August, only behind this year since 1997, however for some reason, it was rather slow to develop the -20C isotherm, and indeed 2005 is actually the front runner for -20C since 1997.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2006 raises the peril of what can happen to cold pooling, because it actually got the -15C isotherm on the 19th August, only behind this year since 1997, however for some reason, it was rather slow to develop the -20C isotherm, and indeed 2005 is actually the front runner for -20C since 1997.

The 12z GFS hints at the -20C isotherm occurring over Greenland at both t162 and t186 (28th & 29th Aug). I imagine was that to occur, it would be record early once again, at least compared to recent times?

[Geordiesnow]

Tuesday night into Wednesday could see our fist widespread minimum temperatures for a while, all will depend how quick the high ridges in after the NW'ly flow and how much cloudcover there is but one too look out for i guess. Could be one of the first "chilly mornings" of the late summer/early Autumn period.

[summer blizzard]

The 12z GFS hints at the -20C isotherm occurring over Greenland at both t162 and t186 (28th & 29th Aug). I imagine was that to occur, it would be record early once again, at least compared to recent times?

Indeed it would, by around 20 days and accelerating against previous years. I can see the -15C isotherm but not the -20C, can you pint it out.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Indeed it would, by around 20 days and accelerating against previous years. I can see the -15C isotherm but not the -20C, can you pint it out.

Both in eastern Greenland in the middle of the -15C areas. They're not numbered as -20C but there is a small dashed line shape to show where it should be. It's barely there on t162, but tis visible enough at t186.

Ah sure I'll post up the images and put a red box around the areas in question!

[summer blizzard]

Both in eastern Greenland in the middle of the -15C areas. They're not numbered as -20C but there is a small dashed line shape to show where it should be. It's barely there on t162, but tis visible enough at t186.

Ah sure I'll post up the images and put a red box around the areas in question!

Thanks, lets hope that it makes it to 0 hours.

[damianslaw]

Further to my post a few days back - would be interested to see members monthly forecasts/predictions for the coming autumn. Many members seem to be forgetting autumn is around the corner and are more interested in the winter it seems...

I suspect come Sept this thread will be much more active as the school holidays are out the way and people are more focussed on autumn. Still it would be good to see some more predictions before actual autumn begins. I am still going for a rather cool September despite hints of high pressure kicking the month off with a continental influence even if this occurs watch the nightime mins drop markedly..

[frostyjoe]

Both in eastern Greenland in the middle of the -15C areas. They're not numbered as -20C but there is a small dashed line shape to show where it should be. It's barely there on t162, but tis visible enough at t186.

Ah sure I'll post up the images and put a red box around the areas in question!

Does it come out too 120 hours now?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Does it come out too 120 hours now?

Yep. Down to just t120 now. Though it is quite fleeting and just a small area once again.

[frostyjoe]

Yep. Down to just t120 now. Though it is quite fleeting and just a small area once again.

Aw well at least if it does come it'll be record again, though it says it'll rise to 5 850pha, will that really happen?? Or has that just been happening in fi?

[Gavin P]

Further to my post a few days back - would be interested to see members monthly forecasts/predictions for the coming autumn.

Roughly, unsettled September. Possibly the wettest since 2000. October high and low pressure alternating, very average month. November, possibly cold, frosty and dry.

Edited August 22, 2010 by Gavin P

[Cheshire Freeze]

Roughly, unsettled September. Possibly the wettest since 2000. October high and low pressure alternating, very average month. November, possibly cold, frosty and dry.

I'd pretty much agree with that Gavin

[BornFromTheVoid]

The -20C isotherm occurring a few times on the 12z. It's creeping ever closer too, now at just t111.

[Ben_Cambs]

I forsee a wetter than average Autumn with pretty much average temperatures. My forecast summary:

September: Generally cool and wet, possibly one or two quite deep Atlantic Lows, a dull month for all

October: A more settled month with above average sunshine levels, slightly above average temperatures but with some very cool nightime minima

November: A mixed month of milder spells and cooler spells, possibly one cold shot that may bring the first low level snowfall to many areas of the country in the second half of November, milder in the first half IMO, blocking more prominent in the second half of December.

Edited August 23, 2010 by Ben_Cambs

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like Sunday night could be a cold one for those in Western areas, would not be surprised if rural parts of Northern Ireland and Wales record there first visable grass frost by Monday morning.

Monday night looks like a cold night(for the time of year!) so it will be interesting what temperature readings we record in the next couple of nights.

[frostyjoe]

Looks like Sunday night could be a cold one for those in Western areas, would not be surprised if rural parts of Northern Ireland and Wales record there first visable grass frost by Monday morning.

Monday night looks like a cold night(for the time of year!) so it will be interesting what temperature readings we record in the next couple of nights.

Aye with these low maxes its very possible, when you say visible do you mean like winter when everything is white? Would you not need minus for that, i'm down for 2c min and it usually beats that so you might be right but no doubt it'll be downgraded.. i had 2c the other night, no frost though, thats always why i've wondered why people have gotten a frost at that temperature!

[reef]

Aye with these low maxes its very possible, when you say visible do you mean like winter when everything is white? Would you not need minus for that, i'm down for 2c min and it usually beats that so you might be right but no doubt it'll be downgraded.. i had 2c the other night, no frost though, thats always why i've wondered why people have gotten a frost at that temperature!

It depends on quite a few factors really. A ground frost (grass frost is an unoffical term but means the same thing) is when the temperature 'on the grass' (or more accurately just above) falls below zero degrees celcius. The temperature of the air above it can be quite a few degrees above zero and vice-versa. A visible 'hoar frost' may not be present either as this requires air with high moisture which can condense as the temperature falls and then freeze.

A good page explaining is here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/basics_frost.shtml

[Gilly]

This has been a disappointing summer with only June being quite nice for us in the north of Scotland.

We are only at the end of August and already the met office forecast for Cairngorms National Park for Sunday is Bright or sunny intervals and a few showers, these falling as snow on summits where cold northerly gales expected.

Last year it was on the 2nd October we saw the first falls!

I am still hoping we will get an Indian summer.

[Northernlights]

This has been a disappointing summer with only June being quite nice for us in the north of Scotland.

We are only at the end of August and already the met office forecast for Cairngorms National Park for Sunday is Bright or sunny intervals and a few showers, these falling as snow on summits where cold northerly gales expected.

Last year it was on the 2nd October we saw the first falls!

I am still hoping we will get an Indian summer.

Yes autumn is really here currently -1.8c on Cairngorm, must be a dusting on the tops this morning and 8c at our level with a strong N wind and light showers off the Firth, even the sheep with their woolly coats are seeking shelter behind the dykes.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A real change in the air this morning. Chilly with dew everywhere; Bye Bye Summer !!!!

Lime tree in our garden looked especially yellow in the half-light. Won't be long til we're knee deep in leaves.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Won't be long til we're knee deep in leaves.

And then a few months later, knee deep in snow (i wish!)

[RichardR]

I think it will be a warm start to September, with a very cool second half. Then October will be very mild, dry and sunny, but followed by a wintery, cold, dryish November.

[ZONE 51]

(s/se uk-Warm september, maybe a thundery plume.

1st wk- warm and dry cold nights

2nd wk- warm in the south low pressure trying to hit sw england

3and4th-wk xhurricanes or lows bringing very wet mild weather and maybe gales. maybe southly tracking lows.

October stormy and thundery.

November colder with wet and windy ,i think a potent south storm likely this auturmn.

Dec-very cold ne'lys with snow.

Do i have to give my reasons?

Edited September 1, 2010 by nimbilus

[Essan]

Looking at the MetO experimental lrf data I would say that, were they still releasing public seasonal forecasts, the MetO would be going for likelihood of above average temperatures and average or below average rainfall for the period Sep-Nov. Obviously this does not exclude the possibility of some periods of below average temps pr above average rainfall!

[Cymro]

This is not a discussion for people to snap at eachothers ideas etc, we don't need any of that do we guys, but more a mild version of what was the winter thread. How about some of your ideas and projections for the future months on how the Autumn and beginning of Winter will pan out?

I don't know about you lot but this time of the year is always the best on Netweather, where the hype begins to build and the usage of the forum increases. So come on who's gonna be the first to suggest their foughts on the coming months?