Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Crepuscular Ray

Nasa Warns Solar Flares From 'huge Space Storm' Will Cause Devastation

Recommended Posts

Hmmm:

From NASA: they appear to think that things are about to kick off:

http://science.nasa....010/04jun_swef/

ive read some rubbish in mt time but this beats the lot no offence watch and see would be my answer we are in a minimum and this is is likely to continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ive read some rubbish in mt time but this beats the lot no offence watch and see would be my answer we are in a minimum and this is is likely to continue.

I agree with what you say in the respect that i too believe we are entering a period of very low solar activity, but can not call the statement they made rubbish - yet!!

In my humble opinion we still know so little about our nearest star that i do not think anyone can make anymore than a guess at its next move, and that includes NASA.

I could say we are definitely going to see a very shallow maximum and then follows a deep minimum again. That could end up being true, and its what i forecast with the limited data i have seen, but its limited and so at best its a guess. There are many experts making assuptions about a strong maximum and they give credible data to back up the data and reasons. Problem is these experts all ready predicted a high max and when it would start and peak. When it did not happen they moved the goal posts.

So my honest opinion is that no one really knows whats next, surprising how little we understand in the big scheme of things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with what you say in the respect that i too believe we are entering a period of very low solar activity, but can not call the statement they made rubbish - yet!!

In my humble opinion we still know so little about our nearest star that i do not think anyone can make anymore than a guess at its next move, and that includes NASA.

I could say we are definitely going to see a very shallow maximum and then follows a deep minimum again. That could end up being true, and its what i forecast with the limited data i have seen, but its limited and so at best its a guess. There are many experts making assuptions about a strong maximum and they give credible data to back up the data and reasons. Problem is these experts all ready predicted a high max and when it would start and peak. When it did not happen they moved the goal posts.

So my honest opinion is that no one really knows whats next, surprising how little we understand in the big scheme of things.

Nicely put, I think I agree with everything you say there.

In the NASA release, did anyone else notice the words 'Surprise attack'? Does NASA think the sun is a thinking entity and is planning to hit us with a CME? I may be putting thoughts into his head, but that may be one of the reasons, along with the general alarmist tone that BB was alluding to

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nicely put, I think I agree with everything you say there.

In the NASA release, did anyone else notice the words 'Surprise attack'? Does NASA think the sun is a thinking entity and is planning to hit us with a CME? I may be putting thoughts into his head, but that may be one of the reasons, along with the general alarmist tone that BB was alluding to

i agree NNW i think for alot of reading on this subject although we are in a deep minimum a rather nasty CME is very possible indeed.

as for activity as such i dont see much more than what we have been used to in the last few years lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i agree NNW i think for alot of reading on this subject although we are in a deep minimum a rather nasty CME is very possible indeed.

as for activity as such i dont see much more than what we have been used to in the last few years lol.

A CME is a threat most times as I understand it, however it seems that when the sun is quiet, there is something of a buildup of tension, the way I picture it is like after drinking a Coke, sometimes you just need a big burp, which may be hours after you've drunk it, it's just a good way of embarrassing yourself, ( although the sun would just embarrass our technology)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't we get this warning as we were dropping into solar min? (before we knew how long and low the sun would go!)

It's not that we haven't faced big storms before it's just that our electric dependence has grown greater so if it gets impacted we're stuffed!!!

Could you imagine the chaos if we burned out transformers all across the sun facing side of the planet? They had enough of a job sorting the Canadian incident out in the late 80's!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't we get this warning as we were dropping into solar min? (before we knew how long and low the sun would go!)

It's not that we haven't faced big storms before it's just that our electric dependence has grown greater so if it gets impacted we're stuffed!!!

Could you imagine the chaos if we burned out transformers all across the sun facing side of the planet? They had enough of a job sorting the Canadian incident out in the late 80's!!

One as to laugh, is this the same NASA that made those incorrect claims ( again ) about cycle 24!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One as to laugh, is this the same NASA that made those incorrect claims ( again ) about cycle 24!

Well ,it seems, they're not moving the goalpost's on this one (LOL)!

I'm sure we're both fully aware of the dangers of a CME of the 'correct polarity' smashing into our grid system/satelites etc. and ,as we become ever more reliant on them, the 'danger' of disruption increases.

I'm not sure whether a 'Canadian stylee' blackout is imminent but it is surely more possible now we have more stuff to 'fry' than it was when we were not an 'electrical' society.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well ,it seems, they're not moving the goalpost's on this one (LOL)!

I'm sure we're both fully aware of the dangers of a CME of the 'correct polarity' smashing into our grid system/satelites etc. and ,as we become ever more reliant on them, the 'danger' of disruption increases.

I'm not sure whether a 'Canadian stylee' blackout is imminent but it is surely more possible now we have more stuff to 'fry' than it was when we were not an 'electrical' society.

Hi GW,

I think that those who have done any research could only agree with your comment above. The interesting thing is that they are waving a repeat of 1859 at us, with the assumption that it's more likely due to SC24 being a weak cycle. SC10 was the cycle that included the 1859 storms ( there were 2 within days), but it seems that it's a 1 in 500 years event, although with any statistical assumption, it could happen tomorrow.

Apparently one of the reasons the great solar storm was so powerful was that another CME had "cleared" space of other matter only a short time earlier ( the source is wikipedia, so I cannot testify to it's veracity). If it is a one in five hundred year event, I hope they'll have some good hardening in place by the time we get there, otherwise, I imagine the dependence on electrical "stuff" by that time will be absolute

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well ,it seems, they're not moving the goalpost's on this one (LOL)!

I'm sure we're both fully aware of the dangers of a CME of the 'correct polarity' smashing into our grid system/satelites etc. and ,as we become ever more reliant on them, the 'danger' of disruption increases.

I'm not sure whether a 'Canadian stylee' blackout is imminent but it is surely more possible now we have more stuff to 'fry' than it was when we were not an 'electrical' society.

no they dont need to, they done that already.

but its known that low solar outputs kick out strong CME so its nothing really new.

im sorry i gotta laugh that is the biggest joke ive ever seen solar minimum around the last few years looks the most likely then cycle 25 well wait and see is my answer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

im sorry i gotta laugh that is the biggest joke ive ever seen solar minimum around the last few years looks the most likely then cycle 25 well wait and see is my answer.

Could you try rewriting that in something approximating English so that anyone might have a vague guess at what you're on about? (and yes, I'll report myself to the mods for sarcasm.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could you try rewriting that in something approximating English so that anyone might have a vague guess at what you're on about? (and yes, I'll report myself to the mods for sarcasm.)

Surely, it's not sarcasm if it's correct? :air_kiss:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an IT manager - is there any reliable (ie not the MSM) where one can periodically check on these things such that I can organise extensive downtime should the event occur?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah scare season time. Strange we've survived all this time despite these storms happening. There's something in the human spirit that loves a good scare story be it Global warming, Bird Flue, Swine Flu etc.

Rest easy folks unless you get hit by a bus we're still likely to be discussing this in years too come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah scare season time. Strange we've survived all this time despite these storms happening. There's something in the human spirit that loves a good scare story be it Global warming, Bird Flue, Swine Flu etc.

Rest easy folks unless you get hit by a bus we're still likely to be discussing this in years too come.

Except this is a real threat that has been recognised since before the Canadian meltdown? Since the canadian meltdown we have had 20 yrs more dependance on sat coms and electrically run 'support systems' (2 days without cashpoints would be fun ,no?) so we have to consider how we can protect ourselves from /deal with CME's which have the potential to generate surges on earth and blow circuits in space (a sat is no good if you can't re-adjust it's position/re-establish the correct orbit).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an IT manager - is there any reliable (ie not the MSM) where one can periodically check on these things such that I can organise extensive downtime should the event occur?

Hi VP,

My understanding is that we should get at least 24 hours warning, mainly because the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is composed of matter rather than light/UV. So we'll see something, how long it takes to get here is crucial, if it's fast moving, and I'd expect it to be, it would probably take just under a day. The most important part is the Polarity, if it's a Northerly, no real problem, but if it's tilted in a Southerly dipole, we could have problems

SpaceWeather.com is probably the fastest to report

Except this is a real threat that has been recognised since before the Canadian meltdown? Since the canadian meltdown we have had 20 yrs more dependance on sat coms and electrically run 'support systems' (2 days without cashpoints would be fun ,no?) so we have to consider how we can protect ourselves from /deal with CME's which have the potential to generate surges on earth and blow circuits in space (a sat is no good if you can't re-adjust it's position/re-establish the correct orbit).

I agree GW, but we've allowed ourselves to be lulled into a world that is "Just In Time", works fine until something goes wrong, then it becomes a "JTL" ( Just too Late ).

There is a huge amount of complacency due primarily to cost, if it's a one in five hundred year event (which the 1849 one supposedly was) let the better tech of 2100 cope with it, at that point we should only be half way to the next one occuring.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that it seems to hit America hardest. I presume this due to the length of cabling. Anyway by around 2015 we may thankful for the flare to give us some extra power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

This would truly be a nightmare if it occured as the doomists suggest.

However, whilst it is something to be aware of (and hopefully doesn't occur) it is worth bearing in mind that the usual doomists speak out and make things much worse than they are in reality. Whether that be areas of the press and media and/or also a few individuals on various internet forums who always love a good scare story and predict impending doom in various guises.

So best to keep some perspective over things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that it seems to hit America hardest. I presume this due to the length of cabling. Anyway by around 2015 we may thankful for the flare to give us some extra power.

Hi Pit,

Good introduction on how the Geomagnetic storm causes problems with Transformers here, OK, it's Wikipedia, but it's a start. And you are right, it's the length of the cabling creates larger induced currents

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we have to bare in mind that this is from the same people that have had to adjust their forecast several times in recent years. While the threat exists, there is no evidence to suggest they are going to be right. This is something that could happen anytime..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we have to bare in mind that this is from the same people that have had to adjust their forecast several times in recent years. While the threat exists, there is no evidence to suggest they are going to be right. This is something that could happen anytime..

Exactly, so before any either predictive or dismissive post can make any sense we need to know with a reasonable certainty:

1. What exactly the dangers are to human society

2. How likely this is to occur

Until there are answers to those two questions dismissive posts make even less sense than the warnings contained in the original article. There are many many examples of disasters which had previously been dismissed as 'never going to happen so don't worry' on the basis they had never happened previously...............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember after the manchester bombs ( where the emergency services herded everyone straight past the two main bombs [which were never detonated]) we were working with Greater manchester Traffic authority and did some work (unofficially) on how many junctions you'd need to block to gridlock Mcr. The answer was 5 back then. Imagine a London rushhour without traffic lights?

It's the silly things that most folk don't even consider that turn out to be highly impacting in most crisis, I mean no pumping stations (no 'leccy) and no traffic movement across the capital. No shops open to buy water and no cash point to grab money to buy fluids.

We're right to consider it as an eventuality even if it never happens. Why do folk take out insurance? cause it will happen or might happen?

Better to spend a few hours giving yourself an edge on the situation than sit on yer fat butt doing diddly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...