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Paul Sherman

Chase 2010 - Day 41 Discussion

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Starting in Kansas City and another Risk today for some Supercells and Colorado Magic. 3,000jkg of Cape and some Veering of the levels so you never know in these Set-Ups. Temps will be nearing 100f today so Factor 50 needed. So will head west down the I-70 Towards Eastern Colorado today as we need to be over that way for Monday anyways.

Paul S & Tour 4

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SPC have put a 2% tornado risk in for colorado this afternoon so now are in chase mode towards the Colorado Kansas border on the I 70 should get there just after 1745 our time 2330 your time could get some Colorado magic today fingers crossed

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MD for Colorado, SE Wyoming, W NEB. Chance for isolated tornado over western NEB where wind shear is strongest:

post-1052-12758586979421_thumb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0248 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...SW NEB...CO FRONT RANGE INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061948Z - 062145Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH

A THREAT OF PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NEAR CYS SWD ALONG

THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE MID 50S

F...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE

ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING IS OCCURRING ON THE LARGE

SCALE...CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY

BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST CONDITIONAL

THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS OVER WY INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO WHERE

THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS EXIST. FARTHER S INTO SERN CO

AND NM...WEAK SHEAR EXISTS BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL

REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY KEEP STORMS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THEIR

INITIATION ZONES OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM. FARTHER N...MUCH FASTER

STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST LONGER TRACKED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR. AN

ISOLATED TORNADO THUS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT INTO WRN NEB WHERE

GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS NEAR A WARM FRONT...BUT

OVERALL...SURFACE T/TD SPREADS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN

MARGINAL AT BEST.

..JEWELL.. 06/06/2010

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Sadly, 7 deaths in Ohio today, as well as a nuclear power plant in northern Michigan losing a wall and the destruction of a fair few buildings in Streator, Ill.

Stay safe guys.

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Maybe the team will be able to reach this activity in n.e. Colorado near the Wyoming and Nebraska borders:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CYS&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks to me as though these storms will eventually reach Goodland KS before sunset, then the complex drifts further east into n KS and s NE, redevelops on Monday in the area around Russell KS to Salina KS and could become very severe there, because the super hot air mass over TX is going to ooze north tomorrow (today it's a more modified heat over KS and CO with highs 85-90 F).

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Here's the guidance for start of Monday's severe weather outbreak, the 24h 18z RGEM model ...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3293_100.gif

This shows the core of desert heat extending from today's location in central NM towards southeast Colorado. Could easily be 40 C in southwest KS tomorrow with the 594 dm thickness contour showing up over much of Colorado (582 dm is seriously hot, so 594 ... probably record breaking heat, look for 42 C in the TX panhandle and 38-41 C in eastern CO). Under that heat storm activity is likely to be pushed east of the moist tropical air mass which will move north through OK into s/c KS. Severe storms will probably be developing from about McCook NE southeast to Wichita KS with peak development somewhere near Russell to Hill City KS. These should be relatively slow movers as the frontal boundary will only edge slowly east, net motion may be southeast on cells. Best action should be around the 576 dm thickness contour running through KS.

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Sadly, 7 deaths in Ohio today, as well as a nuclear power plant in northern Michigan losing a wall and the destruction of a fair few buildings in Streator, Ill.

Stay safe guys.

yep another reminder that mother nature is in charge and should be shown respect at all times truly sad news about the deaths and lets hope no trouble happens with the nuclear plant

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Ian, where are you guys now? There was a tornado warning out for the part of Nebraska just across from the northeast corner of Colorado, that cell could be heading slowly for northwest KS.

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Ian, where are you guys now? There was a tornado warning out for the part of Nebraska just across from the northeast corner of Colorado, that cell could be heading slowly for northwest KS.

roger sorry for late responce we are about 10 miles east of oberlin Kansas when we get there we will head north to McCook we are looking at three meaty cells

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Well that turned out much better than I expected. Stopped at Hays (Ks) when we spotted an incredible Mothership anvil, I thought it was 100 Miles away, wrong it was 238 Miles away LOL. Good thing was we had North and West roads to intercept and the Supercell was heading South East at 40mph. Finally intercepted just South of Mccook (Ne)Just too late to see the Tornado at Imperial just West of Mccook, but certainly saw a rotating Wall Cloud from 35 miles away. Then checked into the hotel and chased 2 More Tornado warned cells that were moving down from the North Platte area, tagged along with an Aussie chaser called Daniel, we split onto 2 different Highways to get different perspectives on the 2 Cells, shot crazy Wall Clouds, Sunsets and Lightning, saw some very close ground hugging wall clouds but no Nados today.

Some really nice pictures though, Nebraska is starting to like me again it seems.

Paul S & Team

Will post some pics in the next few days

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Just as an aside, is this our chase-team rushing out of Fort Worth after the latest tornado last week?

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