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Somerset Squall

Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Phet

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The third tropical cyclone of the season, and May, has formed from invest 94A.

03A has an intensity of 35kts, and has already developed some strong banding features spiralling about the well defined LLC. Shear is currently at moderate levels and could hinder development for the next 24hrs. After this time, shear will ease, and coupled with sea temps in excess of 30C, 03A should intensify at least steadily.

03A is currently in the middle of the Arabian Sea, and is moving northwestwards. Models are in fair agreement on a recurve scenario sending 03A northeastwards towards northwestern India. This track will let 03A stay over water for at least a few days so intensities really need to be watched as where 03A is going will more than likely result in a landfall. It is a little early as yet to pinpoint exactly where.

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Yep 03A now at 35kts. I'll have to keep this post short as I'm sadly rather busy!

Simply put 03A is in very explosive environment right now. Its the type of set-up that could in theory yeild a system above 100kts quite easily and I think thats quite possible as well. The JWTC forecast takes it upto 90kts and I think that'll probably be on the low side given it probably has 96hrs or so to strengthen. As you say SS the shear has been driving in some more stable air from land to the north into the northern part of the system limiting strengthening, though there are signs thats starting to really reduce now as a burst of convection develops.

Just a word of note about the ECM 12z run, it showed a very powerful cyclone hitting the Indian coast, I'd guess it'd probably be of cat-4/5 type strength according to the ECM, and this solution cannot be ruled out given the time it has over some very favourable Oceanic Heat content and very good conditions aloft.

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Some models expect the storm will be approaching the coast of Oman on Thursday. After it will go to the West.

Probably will happen such as cyclone which occurred in 2007, where he was beaten coasts of Oman and Iran

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03A has strengthened overnight, with intensity now at 50kts. A central dense overcast feature has formed, with deep convective banding pulling into the LLC from the southwest. Shear has eased nicely over 03A, allowing quick development. Track forecasts from JTWC are the same, with current landfall predicted to be near Karachi, Pakistan, just prior to 96hrs time. Current development and the favourable conditions ahead suggest an intense storm as Kold has already described.

post-1820-127538492925_thumb.jpg

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thanks snow madien

na201003.gif

20100601.1500.meteo7.x.ir1km.03APHET.55kts-982mb-168N-622E.100pc.jpg

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Not all that surprising that Phet continues to get stronger. Not much really to add from my last post, any dry air that was entrailed into the systems west flank earlier today is now being mixed out and thus further strengthening should continue. I'd have thought anything from 100kts is very possible.

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Phet has rapidly intensified to 65kts, making the cyclone a cat 1 on the SS scale. Phet has an intense core with a firmly established central dense overcast. The eye is slowly beginning to emerge. Phet continues to exhibit strong convective bands further fuelling the CDO feature. The cyclone is in a very good position for continued rapid intensification. Oman need to really watch Phet too as the turn to the northeast is forecast to occur later than before which will mean Phet will get quite close to the coast here before accelerating northeastwards towards Karachi, Pakistan. This is really not looking good for northwestern India or Pakistan, JTWC now forecasting a peak of 105kts and Phet could easily get stronger than this IMO.

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Yesterday, here in Oman. Meteorological Oman launched yesterday a warning to residents of the east coast of Oman. That will be hit by heavy rain and winds of an active and high waves

Some Model of Weather canceled the specified path to Pakistan. He is now expected to hit the east coast of Oman in the coming hours, but I hope that does not happen like what happened on 6 \ 6 \ 2007. That day was tragic day for us here in Oman

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Still the cyclone is now moving towards the north-west , so still it is now moving towards to east coast of Oman .

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Phet has really powered up in the last 12-18hrs or so with the Sat.estimates now upto 115kts. It has a nice eye present with a superb looking southern side to the system. The northern side is starting to slightly lose its strength and getting flattened off with the system dragging most of its moisture from the SW. The northern side could start to drag in some drier air from Oman as the system gets closer to the system. This could prevent the amount of strengthening the JWTC are expecting (who gets this upto 140kts!!) but given the heat the system has to use and plus the superb upper conditions aloft strengthen right towards Oman...

As for track, looking likely the system will either scrape Oman or actually make landfall probably as a very powerful cyclone, thankfully the area is very sparse of people. After that the models still recurve the system ENE towards the NW Indian coastline but clearly strength will depend mainly on how far inland Phet goes. EVen then I wouldn't be surprised if the system has enough to restrengthen if it gets knocked down quite a lot.

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This is a warning issued on the Meteorology in Oman a few moments ago:

Twelve noon The latest satellite images and forecasts of the numerical to the presence of tropical cyclone (Phet) west of the Arabian Sea at latitude 18 degrees north and longitude 60.3 degrees east longitude, and avoids the Centre for Masirah Island 325 km while the nearest block to withdraw cumulus associated about 150 km, and estimated the speed of the wind around the center of the storm about 150 km / h, and was moving north-westerly direction at speeds of 10 km / h towards the coast of the eastern region during the next 24 hours, and still projections indicate a change movement center of the storm later towards the north-east Hindi toward the coast of Pakistan, is expected to extend cumulus clouds associated with Hurricane impact on the island of Masirah and Ras Markah and the eastern region exceptionally heavy rain and gale-force winds at the center of the storm passed near the coast of the eastern region on Thursday and Friday. And calls upon the Directorate brotherhood of fishermen and sea-goers not to the descent of the sea, especially on the coast of Oman on the Arabian Sea due to its proximity to the center of the storm and tidal surge of up to 8 meters in depth. This Directorate will issue official statements on the successive developments of the weather.

Civil Aviation Affairs Directorate of Meteorology and Air Navigation Service forecasts and monitoring a note.

Alandhir will be updated every 12 hours or upon the occurrence of any developments.

Warning translator from Arabic to English

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Another update to the expected path of cyclone Phet, will enter to Oman after that will come out of the capital Muscat heading to Pakistan.

people in Oman today is concerned about the return of the tragedy which occurred on 6 \ June \ 2007

post-10080-12754883363092_thumb.jpg

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This looks like it could reach cat 5 status

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Phet has certainly gone crazy today, intensity is now at 125kts which is mid range cat 4. JTWC keen on bringing Phet to legendary cat 5 status soon; the third globally for 2010 if this does occur. Track has changed significantly too, as the dangerous cyclone has refused to turn north and has instead remained on a northwest to north-northwest track, straight for Oman. Pakistan will likely still get a landfall from Phet later on but as a much weakened tropical storm as Oman's dry landmass takes a lot of power from the system. Of course, Oman have suddenly been put in the firing line of this intense cyclone which is not good news at all. It looks as if Phet will effect an area further south than Gonu in 2007, which hit a more populated area, but still not good news nonetheless.

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Not going to make Category-5 status, I'll stick my neck out on this one I think!

Its very likely peaked already. My last post suggested that sooner rather then later dry air was going to injested into this systems circulation and I think this is occuring right now, with the western side of the system being eroded as the circulation draws in essentially desert air which is very stable indeed. The fact its circulating right into the core and at the mid levels is never a good thing for TCs, its the same thing that has helped to weaken many big Gulf Of Mexico systems as they come into landfall.

The thing that will probably prevent rapid weakening is an impressive inflow channel with a huge convective tail but I think despite this you'll probably see weakening continue from here on. Actually If you look at that Sat.image above, you can see the systems circulation was very close to wrapping in the drier air then, since that image this has occured. This will do two things. Firstly it'll prevent the high winds reaching the surface quite so readily and also plays havoc with the systems structure/convective abilities. Make no doubt about it, this system was making a run on Cat-5, had it been another 300 miles west it would have made it as well I'm pretty sure.

I'd probably estimate something around 100-105kts at landfall, still a very significant cyclone and one that will bring ashore big winds and seas and with a good inflows probably a lot of heavy rain as well, something the area doesn't get too often I'd imagine!

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Old photo I know but photo of Phet earlier in all her beauty

phet_jun2.jpg

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After less than an hour, will draw the primitive associated with the cyclone to enter the east coast of Oman

there is thunderstorm is stationed on the northeastern coast of Oman

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In these moments, there are very heavy rain hit the island of Masirah in the east of Oman

Also have been rescued 16 passengers of an Egyptian ship that nearly sank in the Arabian Sea. They are now safe in Oman.

The situation is very serious in these moments east of Oman. I hope to pass these moments in the best

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Phet has inproved its structure again overnight and has held on a little better then I was expecting. Eyewall is still somewhat open on the northern side so I'd guess strength right now is probably between 105-110kts. Slow weakening should continue as the system draws nearer to Oman.

Now big uncertainties about the track, the models are shifting back eastwards and now only brush Oman before the system recurves to the NE towards India. How much weakening occurs will depend on exactly where and if it makes landfall in Oman.

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At this time, I think that cyclone is strengthening itself when it returned to the east slightly this afternoon. This resulted in a decline in the delay of the approaching cyclone to the Oman. After that, the cyclone returned again to the movement to the northwest and fought back helped to strengthen the itself, as now, the storm intensified the withdrawal of thunderstorms around itself. Thereafter, the rotate around itself.

I really take this cyclone, cyclone ambiguous, where no one knows the path and we see each update to change the track.

Of knowing that for 5 days and dry air is turned off for northern Oman, where there is humid air.

post-10080-12755856072874_thumb.jpg

To monitor places of lightning in this moment.

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stunning image of this system

ROPME_SeaArea.2010154.aqua.2km.jpg

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That is an amazing image Cookie!

Anyway system looks like its just about going to stay offland. The whole balance of the system doesn't look all that bad. I'd estimate the JWTC call of about 105kts right now is about right, though I'd go a little lower between 95-100kts because of an open northern eyewall. I have to admit my call of a landfall of 100-105kts is looking a good one :)

The latest JWTC forecast drives the system inland into Oman after previously recurving the system offshore. Its been a touch forecast on that front I have to admit with the upper trough not coming along quite quick enough to recurve the system early enough to prevent a landfall of Phet.

I've certainly been fooled a few times already by this system, still its a good warm-up for the Atlantic basin for me!

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