Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

reef

Model Output Discussion

Recommended Posts

A new thread for the discussion of the models.

The last one seemed to have quite a lot of bickering with quite a few of the comments bearing no actual relation to what the charts are showing. Perhaps if people actually posted a link to the charts they think are good/dreadful then others will take their opinions more seriously.

Thanks. :)

Old thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62599-model-output-discussion/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM sees the front later in the week stall out in the atlantic which would allow a proper pull of European air with the potential for some big thunderstorms!

In the meantime though it looks like other than Tuesday a pleasant week coming up with temperatures several degrees above average and plenty of sunshine around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z shows some decent weather temperatures around average for the time of year with a mix of dry weather in the middle and unsettled at the start and finish of the 180 hours. FI shows a much cooler unsettled pattern but not to be taken with any degree of seriousness.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z shows some decent weather temperatures around average for the time of year with a mix of dry weather in the middle and unsettled at the start and finish of the 180 hours. FI shows a much cooler unsettled pattern but not to be taken with any degree of seriousness.

1st June looks very anomalous then. Maxima of 8-10C being forecast in North Western areas. What?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z shows some decent weather temperatures around average for the time of year with a mix of dry weather in the middle and unsettled at the start and finish of the 180 hours. FI shows a much cooler unsettled pattern but not to be taken with any degree of seriousness.

Not really the first time it's shown cooler unsettled weather in FI. An indication of what to expect imho, it just seems to be trending towards cooler and wetter weather.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really the first time it's shown cooler unsettled weather in FI. An indication of what to expect imho, it just seems to be trending towards cooler and wetter weather.

True perhaps, and the GFS has been trending towards this but not all the models agree it seems, for example the GFS, JMA and GEM - certainly still open to debate in the long run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the last time, what is going to cause it to be 8C on 1st June all day? It looks like an error.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well a new day and the gfs and ecm return to the warmer theme of recent runs. :unknw: theres great potential for next weekend for some real heat and thunderstorms as atlantic troughs stall to our west, the gfs 00z suggests a split centre with one being further south, this would certainly pump up some hot continental air. i like the way that trough hangs about biscay area in deeper fi, if this became reality (and this has been shown before)we could be in for a real decent lasting thundery spell where we could get some humdingers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 00z shows next week becoming warmer right across the uk with low pressure becoming anchored to the west or northwest of the uk and high pressure to the east or southeast with winds mainly between sw'ly or s'ly, it does look fairly unsettled across nw britain in the week ahead although monday should be sunny with a ridge over the uk but that will soon push away east with low pressure moving towards nw scotland but pressure will rise from the south and most of england & wales, especially the southeast should do very well with high pressure becoming slow moving to the east, temps should rise well into the 70's eventually, FI shows a thundery breakdown with cyclonic but warmish/humid conditions followed by more anticyclonic conditions but no doubt the 6z will show something completely different. :unknw:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS brings back summer which is just creeping into the general reliable time frame. FI and into deep FI again goes back to previous wet summers with lows close or over the south of the UK. There can't be a repeat surely. ECM suggests a similar pattern as well and the agreement is pretty good for once.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS brings back summer which is just creeping into the general reliable time frame. FI and into deep FI again goes back to previous wet summers with lows close or over the south of the UK. There can't be a repeat surely. ECM suggests a similar pattern as well and the agreement is pretty good for once.

Agreed PIT but we have a spanner in the works in the shape of UKMO.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

If ukmo is correct it could be Wed and Thur settled before the Atlantic gets its foot in the door Thur night.

ECM also not as good as last night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Its all a bit uncertain at the moment but personally i cant see a sustained spell of weather.Mon wed and thur great,after that im leaning towards an unsettled spell.Hopefully the 12z runs will be an improvement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I usually find if two models show a similar change then the UKMO would be wrong. The UKMO has stuck to its guns before and failed this Spring. It was in a warm spell in earlier Spring I seem to recall.

Definitely err on the side of the GFS or ECM if they're both agreeing. It does not help, however, when things are subtly changing day to day.

The GFS ensembles for the 18z were not so pretty, so we need inter model agreement and intra model agreement.

My summary is basically a mixture of wet and sunny weather generally feeling slightly subtropical (and this may raise eyebrowse but is probably technically correct)

From my perspective its going to do wonders for the garden, and the bananas in particular!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Theres a light at the end of the tunnel!!!!!i don't think it looks as bad as what i thought it would be, warm up through the week with any rain on tuesday and that real is it and then a possible thundery and humid weekend. the gfs ensembles show a wet period in the middle, maybe they are heavy and thundery showers? and then it gets dryer through the ensembles. we could still grasp summer at the end of this, what some of us thought was the 4th year without a summer. we just need the warmth a bit more west so the low dont come too far east because the high pressure may wrap around the lows and make it hard for them to get away, which is always a bad thing but it can be quite thundery and humid depending on wind direxction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think stephen has it about right. the chopping and changing of the op runs does nothing to help us but the ens means have consistently shown pressure dropping to our sw and the likelihood of less settled weather with a southerly emphasis will be a stark change from the past few months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From my perspective its going to do wonders for the garden, and the bananas in particular!

We have palms in our garden and yes the potential warm/humid type of weather would be great, hopefully notable growth spurts, they are already growing a good 8 inches taller every year with plant food :unknw:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the GFS goes for the UKMO scenario in the 6z but later in the run. So some kind of breakdown is a good bet for the weekend, which if it transpires will bring a return to cooler temperatures, but a totally different feel obviously but thats FI practically.

Until then for most of the country looks a good spell of weather although I will hold that thought for western England and Wales for now because I think the models could well deteriorate conditions for these parts sonner than expected in subsequent model runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the last time, what is going to cause it to be 8C on 1st June all day? It looks like an error.

It's happened before. On the 2nd/3rd June 1998 and 3rd/4th June 2000, frontal rain stalled over northern England, and in both cases Cleadon in Tyne and Wear had maxima short of 10C while some parts of Cumbria reported maxima of just 7 or 8C. No chance of snowfall in that setup of course- humidity is typically near 100%.

I think what we're perhaps seeing in these model discussion threads is an over-simplistic perspective on what the models show- "high pressure -> settled -> dry and warm -> sunny, low pressure -> unsettled -> wet and cold -> cloudy". As a result, anything less than a big fat high covering the UK results in complete despair. It is easy to forget that, for example, mean sea-level pressure during June 2003 and July 1995 (not exactly regarded as washout months) was widely below normal, due to frequent cyclonic southerly/south-westerly types.

Which ties in nicely with the upcoming model output. Unsettled at times, quite possibly, but with an emphasis on southerlies it should be warm, the rain should often be short-lived and thundery, and sunshine amounts should be quite high especially in the east. On the GFS and ECMWF low pressure doesn't take hold until T+180 and we look like seeing 25C occur quite widely during the first week of June- not exceptional but certainly well above the long-term average which ranges from 16C in coastal parts of the north to 20C in London.

UKMO does take us into more of a "flat" south-westerly type by T+144, and should certainly not be ignored, but at present it is out on its own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember waking up on one June Sunday when i was about 14 (give or take a year) so about 20 years ago and there was snow on the ground, this was in the saddleworth area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To balance yesterday where i was told i was negative for posting Weather Online's poor forecast.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jun 2010 to Monday 28 Jun 2010:

The theme of sunshine and showers is likely to continue at first with perhaps a trend towards higher pressure giving drier and brighter conditions. Many areas should see a good deal of sunshine and warm to very warm temperatures. Southern and western parts may see more in the way of rainfall with the possibility of some thundery weather, whilst northern and eastern regions should remain drier.

Even though i am going to the south-west i would take that forecast now if offered it. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The meto 6-15 dayer talking of unsettled weather Fri and Sat in the west north west so i think its a case of the further south and east you are the likelihood of staying warm and mainly dry from Wed to sunday looks good.

For Ireland Western scotland and the western side of England and wales i wouldnt be suprised to see rain showers as we head towards the end of the working week,pretty much what the ukmo model is showing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't get access to the ECM charts :'( can someone post some of the more critical/interesting ones please :)

Note that GFS is now indicating a thundery plume arriving a week today (for now) but other than that am not sure. I think we can be fairly confident things will start warming up from around midweek onwards - YAY!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't get access to the ECM charts :'( can someone post some of the more critical/interesting ones please :)

Note that GFS is now indicating a thundery plume arriving a week today (for now) but other than that am not sure. I think we can be fairly confident things will start warming up from around midweek onwards - YAY!

Hi Harry. Yes indeed models are indicating a thundery plume and ECM brings the plume in late Thurs/Fri a little earlier than the gfs to the west at t120 and t168 shows thundery conditions for a good many.

post-6830-12752277210397_thumb.gif

post-6830-12752277616094_thumb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yep looking warm perhapes humid across all models now awsome stuff 28c by the end of the week could be on the cards.

humid 28c aswell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will wait and see before breaking out the deckchairs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...