Atlantic Tropical Wave/disturbance Thread 2010

[Cookie]

another wave

[PersianPaladin]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html

[Iceberg]

I quite like the look of this wave, still very disorganised, but might get enough northwards to become something, shear and moisture look decent as well.

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE

IS BEGINNING TO TRAIL A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE

ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W."

[Iceberg]

The below wave is looking good. SST's are very high and shear low, visual sat does show some good circulation and there is plenty of water available.

It just needs to get some persistant precip going and tighten up and close the circulation off.

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 6N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.

CLOUD MOVEMENT OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE

AXIS NORTH OF 9N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W."

[pyrotech]

The below wave is looking good. SST's are very high and shear low, visual sat does show some good circulation and there is plenty of water available.

It just needs to get some persistant precip going and tighten up and close the circulation off.

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 6N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.

CLOUD MOVEMENT OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE

AXIS NORTH OF 9N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W."

Yes i agree that conditions are perfect for that wave to become something of interest, Also the tropical wave now leaving the African coast looks potent and again conditions perfect and forecast to remain so for next five days.

Thinking Alex may make an appearance sometime this week!!!

[Iceberg]

This area seems to have been updated to a yellow watch, so invest status should be very soon.

Far to early to say what to make of it, track seems to keep it in the south of the Caribbean

[summer blizzard]

The below wave is looking good. SST's are very high and shear low, visual sat does show some good circulation and there is plenty of water available.

It just needs to get some persistant precip going and tighten up and close the circulation off.

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 6N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.

CLOUD MOVEMENT OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE

AXIS NORTH OF 9N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W."

Surface analysis shows that the wave is now detached from the ITCZ which means it is holding its own and steering currents should draw it northwestward slightly, shear should reach its maximum in 24-48 hour, so any development will occur in the 72-120 hour timeperiod.

[Cookie]

This area seems to have been updated to a yellow watch, so invest status should be very soon.

Far to early to say what to make of it, track seems to keep it in the south of the Caribbean

Its been give a 0% chance of development at the moment so wouldn't hold you're breath just yet.

[pyrotech]

Its been give a 0% chance of development at the moment so wouldn't hold you're breath just yet.

You are correct, but its of it making tropical storm strength in next 48 hours, not that i will not become tropical storm .

So its something that can develop if it takes the right track, and if it takes the right track it is very unlikely to become tropical storm strength in that time frame.

Something to watch.

[Iceberg]

It's been upped to a 10% chance, this is likely to be a slow burner, but under SST's of 30C this could certaintly develop IMO.

Steering currents are generally weak, so slow moving when it goes into the Caribbean proper, maybe heading for Cancun or so before entering the GOM, but this could be 7 to 10 days down the line.

[Rob]

Certainately keeping an eye on this one, just incase something happens!

[kold weather]

Not expecting much over the next 48hrs but as the wave gets into the W.Caribbean I'd certainly keep an eye on it. It'll probably have a 24hrs window to develop in the Caribbean. Shear is forecast to drop away according to the models from what is a very unhealthy 30-40kts down to about 5-10kts. It seems pretty likely this wave will end hitting Central America, probably S.Yucatan/Belieze region. This does mean it will probably get out into the BoC with favourable conditions aloft, so once again its going to have another short window to develop, probably 24-36hrs.

If we didn't have a fairly decent upper high forming to the N/NE of the system then it'd probably have a little more time and the odds of development would increase quite a lot. As it is I think the chances between 48-72hrs and also in the BoC are probably about 30-40% at the moment. A similar system from 2005 would be Bret 2005 which formed in late June in the BoC before making landfall on the same day.

[Iceberg]

This wave is not in good form this morning, a Bit of convection to keep the mid/low circulation going would have been nice.

Still worth watching but not too much atm.

[pyrotech]

Things are improving again to become favourable for tropical storm formation. There continues to be good tropical waves in and just North of the ITCZ. wind shear is liable to drop off further in that area accross the Atlantic as far as the East African Coast. These waves are unlikely to become tropical storms here at this time of year. If they move North they have potential to become something worth naming if they get into the Carribean sea area and the Gulf of Mexico. This is where storms in June and July historically form, the formation zone expanding Eastwards as the months move onwards until almost the whole area accross to African coast becomes potent towards end of July.

So we are needing to see a tropical wave move Northwards into the Gulf/ Carribean sea area and maintain potency with convection and rotation starting early in its progression. The other direction to look is from the Parcific where a storm can form as it reaches the same area from that direction.

Not sure how the oil spill will effect convection in the North of the area, or the effects a trop storm would have on the spill, I.E aid dispersal or just wash it up as an environmental disaster zone.

But it is still important to monitor the waves coming from Africa, but this is not the area where it would be expected for the wave to become a storm at this time

[Gray-Wolf]

It's us eager beaver's wanting everything now Pyro!

By the time we hit late July if we don't have a steady train of 'possibilities' then we've all read the summer wrong!!!

Edited June 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[pyrotech]

It's us eager beaver's wanting everything now Pyro!

By the time we hit late July if we don't have a steady train of 'possibilities' then we've all read the summer wrong!!!

I fully agree, i was living in hope that Colin would be around during july as i am in Cuba for 2 weeks from 13th. So colin pyro and trop storm colin could meet up.

I regards to what i posted yesterday there is a invest area west of mexico which will probably cross over to the gulf and would have potential to develop there, so some hope there of tropical storm potential, which would put the forecasts back on track.

As you know so many factors need to be right but it has potential, currently 10% for Pacific coast but no forecast for when it crosses in to the gulf.

[pyrotech]

Things are improving again to become favourable for tropical storm formation. There continues to be good tropical waves in and just North of the ITCZ. wind shear is liable to drop off further in that area accross the Atlantic as far as the East African Coast. These waves are unlikely to become tropical storms here at this time of year. If they move North they have potential to become something worth naming if they get into the Carribean sea area and the Gulf of Mexico. This is where storms in June and July historically form, the formation zone expanding Eastwards as the months move onwards until almost the whole area accross to African coast becomes potent towards end of July.

So we are needing to see a tropical wave move Northwards into the Gulf/ Carribean sea area and maintain potency with convection and rotation starting early in its progression. The other direction to look is from the Parcific where a storm can form as it reaches the same area from that direction.

Not sure how the oil spill will effect convection in the North of the area, or the effects a trop storm would have on the spill, I.E aid dispersal or just wash it up as an environmental disaster zone.

But it is still important to monitor the waves coming from Africa, but this is not the area where it would be expected for the wave to become a storm at this time

I say that about the area of acivity and then what happens ????????????

ABNT20 KNHC 130521

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE

QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE

LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

At least they do say its rare in this area at this time of season but why did i say that, was always tempting fate.

anyway looking very interesting now for some tropical storm action.

[Gray-Wolf]

I hear that Pyro but maybe , with all the warnings about an active season ,we should expect the unexpected? In another 4 weeks we'll be looking for Cape Verde storms to be rolling off the African continent so maybe this is one of the first glimmers of that?

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM2N TO 11N MOVING WEST NEAR 7 KT.

WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE

REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG

CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N55W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH

AMERICA NEAR 5N59W MOVING WEST 13 KT. NO CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS

OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH

VALUES OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF 10N ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

Wave at 27W could be interesting down the line.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 02N32W MOVING W AT 10-15

KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES IN

AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN

26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS

FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

Wave at 30W shows cyclonic turing and strong convection, some models do velop tis, so one to keep an eye on.

[pyrotech]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 02N32W MOVING W AT 10-15

KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES IN

AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN

26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS

FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

Wave at 30W shows cyclonic turing and strong convection, some models do velop tis, so one to keep an eye on.

Yes that does look good, wind sheer is okay in that area, and really good low level convergence and high level divergence which will give cood convection. Conditions also seem to be improving for 92l with convergene now in that area too, still a fairly strong sheer but trending to lower to its South and West, but still too strong to its North. Convection in the area seems to be increasing again, but it has done so at this time of day before.

Depending on its track it still has potential over the next few days.

Really looking good at 36w and some models are showing a storm to appear over the next few days, as you said. ( see HWRF charts from http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/hurricane_tracking.htm )

There has been some potential early so it does look like a good start to the season but yes it could all turn out to be a damp squib.

I will be in Cuba in July and expect to meet Colin out there, so far its about right on track in conditions, but its a hope cast rather than forecast. Still think we will see first named storm in June.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 02N38W MOVING W AT 10-15

KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AND IT ALSO LIES IN AN

AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 25W-36W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS

AND LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANTICYCLONIC

CENTER NEAR 11N32W. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM

06N-10N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

Would be suprised if this does'nt become an invest soon.

[Cookie]

Big waves coming off Africa

[Paranoid]

I saw that picture before i realised what it was and thought armageddon was upon us . That wave looks pretty intense so i wouldn't be too suprised if that becomes a depression in a few days time once over open water.

[Somerset Squall]

Unless it decides to pull a 92L on us. 92L looked damn impressive out in the eastern Atlantic and it all went downhill from there.