Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Better model output tonight.

First phase: http://cirrus.netwea.../66/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png plenty of convective shower potential.

-8 rule:

Phase 2: http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/102/h500slp.png

Drier interlude for central areas, north and east taking a bit of a pummeling from more organised snow http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/99/ukprec.png

-8 rule void due to northeasterly rather than easterly flow.

Third phase: http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/120/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/120/h850t850eu.png

Easterly flow with much colder uppers approaching bringing most likely a snowfest across eastern Britain http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/120/ukprec.png

Remember the convection underestimation!

Phase 4: more disagreement. Potential for a more stable, but still very cold, weak northerly, with the high close by http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/12/147/h500slp.png

Possibility also of the easterly returning a few days later http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100205/06/150/h500slp.png

Or, even better, the easterly might just continue with potential for troughs and other features in a slightly slacker flow http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?05-17

Not looking too bad at all!

LS

[Guest]

I read the sun today if that helps.

I was in the model thread a minute ago and there was a poster whinging about getting posts deleted. Probably not the best way to get any future borderline posts kept in. That place is just the pits at the moment. Full of a lot of people trying to prove who has the sharpest elbows. I think that used to be me.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think that's un-called for Mondy. I'm on no 'crusade', I like cold snowy weather like most people on here, and as I've said on the relevant thread, would dearly like to be wrong about AGW. If you're going to give me abuse for my views on another thread, at least justify why, on the relevant thread! It's that kind of baseless comment that makes me sick and feel less inclined to contribute to what's otherwise a great forum for Scottish weather watching.

Back on topic, it feels less cold in Edinburgh today, and definitely looks promising for something wintry next week, though I do wonder if it'll be a case of the high pressure being a little too close by, leading to quiet frosts?

Shugg - I missed the 23rd Dec Edinburgh event as I was up north for Christmas - pity as that sounded amazing. 6" in central Edinburgh? Nuts!

sss

Fair post, I think keeping this thread as nice a place as possible and not neccesarily avoiding but certainly not having too heated arguments on the AGW issue is advisable.

[Snowplough33]

Better model output tonight.

First phase: http://cirrus.netwea.../66/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png plenty of convective shower potential.

-8 rule:

Phase 2: http://cirrus.netwea...102/h500slp.png

Drier interlude for central areas, north and east taking a bit of a pummeling from more organised snow http://cirrus.netwea...2/99/ukprec.png

-8 rule void due to northeasterly rather than easterly flow.

Third phase: http://cirrus.netwea...120/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Easterly flow with much colder uppers approaching bringing most likely a snowfest across eastern Britain http://cirrus.netwea.../120/ukprec.png

Remember the convection underestimation!

Phase 4: more disagreement. Potential for a more stable, but still very cold, weak northerly, with the high close by http://cirrus.netwea...147/h500slp.png

Possibility also of the easterly returning a few days later http://cirrus.netwea...150/h500slp.png

Or, even better, the easterly might just continue with potential for troughs and other features in a slightly slacker flow http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

Not looking too bad at all!

LS

Thanks LS. Looking better I feel than this mornings offering. Need to bank some sleep in the next night or two......lots to look forward to next week and no excuses this time for missing "unforecast night time snow events" - UNTSE

[Joe Bloggs]

Better model output tonight.

First phase: http://cirrus.netwea.../66/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png plenty of convective shower potential.

-8 rule:

Phase 2: http://cirrus.netwea...102/h500slp.png

Drier interlude for central areas, north and east taking a bit of a pummeling from more organised snow http://cirrus.netwea...2/99/ukprec.png

-8 rule void due to northeasterly rather than easterly flow.

Third phase: http://cirrus.netwea...120/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Easterly flow with much colder uppers approaching bringing most likely a snowfest across eastern Britain http://cirrus.netwea.../120/ukprec.png

Remember the convection underestimation!

Phase 4: more disagreement. Potential for a more stable, but still very cold, weak northerly, with the high close by http://cirrus.netwea...147/h500slp.png

Possibility also of the easterly returning a few days later http://cirrus.netwea...150/h500slp.png

Or, even better, the easterly might just continue with potential for troughs and other features in a slightly slacker flow http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-17

Not looking too bad at all!

LS

Can I just say I absolutely love reading your analyses.

Fingers crossed for Edinburgh next week... looking good tonight after a high pressure blip earlier at 00z. Hopefully ECM will look better too.

[Guest]

Fair post, I think keeping this thread as nice a place as possible and not neccesarily avoiding but certainly not having too heated arguments on the AGW issue is advisable.

I love the irony of "heated" arguments and AGW issues...

Nice summary above LS

As I said last time round I fully expect at least some snow, even this far west, from this upcoming cold spell. I don't think anyone can complain too much at the potential, certainly after some of the horror show runs recently.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can I just say I absolutely love reading your analyses.

Fingers crossed for Edinburgh next week... looking good tonight after a high pressure blip earlier at 00z. Hopefully ECM will look better too.

Thanks.

Things have improved slightly this afternoon and I'm now feeling a little more reassured of at least some snow. The GEM has been modelling this completely differently though, with undercut lows and random shortwaves appearing out of nowhere to give frequent frontal snow http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-120.png

I queried this on the model thread and someone posted the verification stats showing the GEM top of the class for the first time ever! Of course these are from the last few days, so if what is shown doesn't come off its ratings will take a nosedive but perhaps there is more to it than I first thought. It isn't just one run either - all GEM runs since Wednesday have shown this, regardless of where the other models stuck the shortwave to our northeast. The GEM just disregards that aspect totally!

LS

edit: I am reliably informed on the newly cleaned out (perhaps a tad overcleaned?) model output discussion that the GEM is nonsense!

I love the irony of "heated" arguments and AGW issues...

Nice summary above LS

As I said last time round I fully expect at least some snow, even this far west, from this upcoming cold spell. I don't think anyone can complain too much at the potential, certainly after some of the horror show runs recently.

But just last week almost every run had uppers below -10 right across Scotland and a beasterly coming into play! How things change/change back again

edit: ensembles look stunning http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-84.png?12 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-120.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-138.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-90.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-132.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-180.png?12

Edited February 5, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

But just last week almost every run had uppers below -10 right across Scotland and a beasterly coming into play! How things change/change back again

True, it was even more of a nightmare since we had gone from Beasterly to Nothingerly in just a few days!

I don't know who it was in the model thread going on to you about GEM verification stats, but the opening gambit of "I was going to shoot you down in flames" just says it all about the attitude in there :haveaslapyabamsmilie:

[LomondSnowstorm]

True, it was even more of a nightmare since we had gone from Beasterly to Nothingerly in just a few days!

I don't know who it was in the model thread going on to you about GEM verification stats, but the opening gambit of "I was going to shoot you down in flames" just says it all about the attitude in there :haveaslapyabamsmilie:

I thought that was absolutely hilarious considering I had no real desire to see the GEM verify over the UKMO - the main difference is that the GEM is a bit riskier, with less blocking and less cold uppers! Even if I did want it to come off, my post had nothing to do with that, just that I thought it was interesting to see that! Anyway, we all know what happened to him....

[Guest]

I thought that was absolutely hilarious considering I had no real desire to see the GEM verify over the UKMO - the main difference is that the GEM is a bit riskier, with less blocking and less cold uppers! Even if I did want it to come off, my post had nothing to do with that, just that I thought it was interesting to see that! Anyway, we all know what happened to him....

Some people!

I just wish the weather would hurry up and change, this murk is doing my head in. I must be doing people's heads in with how much the murk is doing my head in, it's that bad.

The only happy news is that there is still some snow lurking about from the other day, although it is getting a bit lonely now

[JoeShmoe]

I couldnt give an a r s e about AGW so there

Looks good for next week - the further north the HP goes the better for us but suspect the inch of snow they may get in Londonium may make this headline news

I still have a nagging feeling the models arent done with this though and can see us ending up HP dominated

Edited February 5, 2010 by JoeShmoe

[Joe Bloggs]

I still have a nagging feeling the models arent done with this though and can see us ending up HP dominated

Blasphemy.

Hope you're wrong. You may well not be though!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I couldnt give an a r s e about AGW so there

Looks good for next week - the further north the HP goes the better for us but suspect the inch of snow they may get in Londonium may make this headline news

I still have a nagging feeling the models arent done with this though and can see us ending up HP dominated

The ECM 12Z should almost be conclusive in deciding for the next 96-120 hours, but after that, HP domination (good name for a rubbish band? Or perhaps sales of the sauce will just be generally on the rise!) is a possibility, at least for a time.

[Blizzardo]

Good GFS ensemble agreement tonight on extended cold/very cold period. If you remember back a week or so the mean was low but there was quite a big spread which is no longer the case.

[NorthernRab]

I actually really want HP to dominate, think freezing fog and freezing temperatures is a great alternative to heavy snow, which as a country we really can't cope with at the moment.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I actually really want HP to dominate, think freezing fog and freezing temperatures is a great alternative to heavy snow, which as a country we really can't cope with at the moment.

Perhaps heavy snow here and freezing fog in Inverness? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Not out of the question at all.

[NorthernRab]

Perhaps heavy snow here and freezing fog in Inverness? http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

Not out of the question at all.

Certainly is possible aye, although I don't think very likely for long. Has there been a period of prolonged lowland snow when it's been mainly dry in the Highlands? This is for long term mind, I wouldn't mind a couple of days of heavy snow followed by HP and then a snow break down.

Inverness does seem to love its freezing fog like nowhere else though.

Edited February 5, 2010 by NorthernRab

[LomondSnowstorm]

Certainly is possible aye, although I don't think very likely for long. Has there been a period of prolonged lowland snow when it's been mainly dry in the Highlands? This is for long term mind, I wouldn't mind a couple of days of heavy snow followed by HP and then a snow break down.

Were '87 and '91 dry in the highlands? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910209.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif

I doubt it a bit, but then again how often do we really see prolonged snow in lowland Scotland lasting more than 72 hours? Even this year which was exceptional had a few days where little or occasionally no snow fell. I could see there being perhaps less snow and lighter snow further north than in central Scotland for maybe 3 or 4 days, perhaps longer depending on how things work out, but I doubt we'll see heavy snow without the highlands getting a bit!

[NorthernRab]

Were '87 and '91 dry in the highlands? http://www.wetterzen...00119910209.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119870113.gif

I doubt it a bit, but then again how often do we really see prolonged snow in lowland Scotland lasting more than 72 hours? Even this year which was exceptional had a few days where little or occasionally no snow fell. I could see there being perhaps less snow and lighter snow further north than in central Scotland for maybe 3 or 4 days, perhaps longer depending on how things work out, but I doubt we'll see heavy snow without the highlands getting a bit!

Couldn't tell you, I wasn't even 1 / wasn't born for those events!

[Guest]

Certainly is possible aye, although I don't think very likely for long. Has there been a period of prolonged lowland snow when it's been mainly dry in the Highlands? This is for long term mind, I wouldn't mind a couple of days of heavy snow followed by HP and then a snow break down.

Inverness does seem to love its freezing fog like nowhere else though.

At a guess I would say Feb 96 was possibly drier in the Highlands than here, it snowed for two days or so here and we ended up with over 2 feet of snow and I don't remember the Highlands getting much (certainly not central Highlands or Grampian anyway since it was a stalling front). I would doubt very much if the lowlands would ever get more snow for an extended period than the highlands, unless there were a series of stalling fronts from the SW and very cold stagnant air to the north (and when does that happen?? )

Inverness and Glasgow both like their freezing fog if the last cold spell was anything to go by, but even then Inverness edged it slightly I think (although I don't actually know ).

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmm, I don't like the ECM. ECM 96

by FI though: too much to worry about though, just potentially drier with less snow showers if the ECM verifies.

[Methuselah]

I actually really want HP to dominate, think freezing fog and freezing temperatures is a great alternative to heavy snow, which as a country we really can't cope with at the moment.

No Rab! Not more freezing fog!!! :) :cray:

:lol: :lol:

[blitzen]

Evening folks. more than happy with today's runs but the ECM HP still a bit too close for comfort. Mind you, can't complain - (but I will as sure as eggs is eggs!) : Actually some dream frames across the models and if precipitation pepped up a bit it will probably be a week to remember.

[Norrance]

Yes the ECM has the high rather near and rather slack also. Need it to stay North at least for a time. I don't mind the cold high as long as snow comes first.

PS Earlier in the thread. Jan 1987 had deep snow down most of Eastern Scotland and through the Central belt gap [eg 40 cms in Kinross / 30 cms widely through Angus, Fife and East Lothian and through to Glasgow but only a few cms in the Highlands where it was cold, clear and frosty.

Feb 1986 was another month when snow lay for a good while in the Eastern lowlands. Also Feb 1978 with a foot of snow in Dundee and Edinburgh when mostly dry further North, but in that year the Highlands had already had the great blizzard at the end of January..

[Cheggers]

What a filthy miserable night out there, 4C, rain, murky, horrible.

Great updates LS, after the other night refuse to go near the TTT (temper tantrum thread) Looks like cold at the very least.

Norrance, were you at Hampden the other night?