London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[yamkin]

I've turned my central heating down a notch or two and do welcome the milder period. With snow after snow and freezing temps, a mild few days will go down well.

I'm quite surprised in the amount of lying snow even with the rain pouring down.

Joe B from AccuWeather thinks our winter will last into March. I remember back in the 70's & 80's when mild periods would form and then very cold periods with snow. Enjoy the milder period as the cold is not far away and WILL return very soon.

[Don]

Well the thaw is well underway today leaving paths and side roads wet and slushy which isn't pleasent. Still, over a week with snowcover isn't bad and would have been almost unthinkable only a couple of years ago in the south! Would like the cold to return though, although I have my doubts that we will see any more sustained cold weather between now and the end of Winter, with perhaps more in the way of short cold snaps interspersed by milder periods.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Don

[Discombobulation Man]

Not happening at this moment in time i'm afraid. Looks like average weather is upon us and could last for some time. Unless the models flip back to a cold easterly again. Which is possible. The Siberian/Scandi HP is still a beast, but for the moment it is going to have little influence on us. Well, that's what the models hint at anyway...

Shame, this time yesterday it was so much different for the outlook! I say we've still got a small chance going by the GFS 6z, at T156 the Siberian High throws out a ridge and makes a bid for the UK but gets booted out by the massive circulation coming out of the states, pushing East. Between now and then any small detail can change and tip the odds back in our mans favour - it's just a shame to see little ensemble support for it.

However, Tomaz 'dont wanna panic you' Shafernaker says this:

(quote from 'ANYWEATHER' in the gen mod discussion 20 mins ago)

Tomaz S on the Radio 4 said that a return to colder conditions next week and he sounded pretty resolute in his manner, thats after a very mixed weekend ...Oh well!

[yamkin]

Shame, this time yesterday it was so much different for the outlook! I say we've still got a small chance going by the GFS 6z, at T156 the Siberian High throws out a ridge and makes a bid for the UK but gets booted out by the massive circulation coming out of the states, pushing East. Between now and then any small detail can change and tip the odds back in our mans favour - it's just a shame to see little ensemble support for it.

However, Tomaz 'dont wanna panic you' Shafernaker says this:

(quote from 'ANYWEATHER' in the gen mod discussion 20 mins ago)

The following is from the 'TWO' forum courtesy of 'pthomps'. This is very interesting:

But ECM is still going for very cold from the 22nd (see below - the red line). Why is ECM being ignored, when it is generally regarded as being the better model? http://www.meteogrou...-tt6-london.gif

[Coast]

Well the thaw is well underway today leaving paths and side roads wet and slushy which isn't pleasant.

Went out lunchtime for a walk to get some exercise and the pavements are a terrible mix of deep grey/brown slush and compacted, slippery ice/snow. I think the oldies are going to struggle to get out today and stay upright - the council don't seem to have made any effort to clear pavements here.

[dubmuffin]

Today was very grim, rainy and grey, the cycle to work unpleasant, and the general mood of pedestrians and drivers alike was miserable, unhelpful, surly and impolite. None of the jovial grinning of the last few days as we all picked our way through the ice, having a quick word with each other as we passed on the way to work. What a difference a day makes....

My feeling is that this milder weather is here for a while, even if it gets a little colder, there wont be another snow event around here for the foreseeable future - but who knows past FI, so will be keeping an eye on the Model threads...

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

Just to let you know the Regional Threads will be Closed at around Midnight tonight and a General Cold Spell Discussion for the Whole Uk Will be Opened at the same time.

Regards

Paul S

[osmposm]

Actually over 5 degrees today here - the first time since, I think, December 27th...in fact the first time over 4 degrees for that matter.

Just wondering now whether January will see us break 10 degrees at all - if not, I suspect it's quite a few years since that's happened. Last 10^o+ day here was 9th December.

Ossie

[Coast]

A real pea-souper rolling in now. Visibility around 150M and falling

[Azores Hi]

Hi Guys

Just to let you know the Regional Threads will be Closed at around Midnight tonight and a General Cold Spell Discussion for the Whole Uk Will be Opened at the same time.

Regards

Paul S

Wahay! The refs blown the whistle, but is the match over or is it just half time?

Orange segment anyone?

[cj114]

Went out lunchtime for a walk to get some exercise and the pavements are a terrible mix of deep grey/brown slush and compacted, slippery ice/snow. I think the oldies are going to struggle to get out today and stay upright - the council don't seem to have made any effort to clear pavements here.

Nor here either. It's amazing how much it hurts when you fall over, when you are an Adult! :unsure:

I haven't seen many old people about tbh, I guess they have kept pretty much indoors but will be out in force come the weekend.

Which is why I'll do my shopping first thing tomorrow.

Oh well back to normality, for a while anyway.

[Coast]

Wahay! The refs blown the whistle, but is the match over or is it just half time?

Half time: we're looking for a great second half with plenty of action from all directions and a thrilling result that suits both teams + drinks in the clubhouse afterwards.

I think you'll find regional threads will be open again when/if the demand is there AH.

[Brocken Spectre]

"Fishy's" latest forecast suggests the Scandi/Siberean high (1054 or summat!!!) might return Tuesday onward!

Might have to re-instate the regional cold spell threads!

[Southender]

Looking at this afternoons output from UKMO & GFS, it looks game over for any further cold spells, for the foreseeable.

Shame. Roll on February.

Edited January 14, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Brocken Spectre]

Looking at this afternoons output from UKMO & GFS, it looks game over for any further cold spells, for the foreseeable.

Shame. Roll on February.

Where has Monsieur Poisson got his predictions from?? Was he looking or using yesterdays models?? He seemed quite adamant about Scandi/Sibe' winning back.

[yamkin]

Looking at this afternoons output from UKMO & GFS, it looks game over for any further cold spells, for the foreseeable.

Shame. Roll on February.

Before it got really cold in December it was mild to begin with with many saying winter is going to be mild. Seasonal temps are upon us, not mild temps. Yes, the current temps are milder than of late, but are seasonal. The very cold air is not far away and believe me, we will get further cold periods before this winter ends.

Did you know that in the 1940's many used to say 'Modern Times' regarding the weather. They did not have cold winters with snow all the time. Even when there were cold periods with snow, there were mild interludes too just like now.

Edited January 14, 2010 by yamkin

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Irrespective of what the ECM goes on to show, there are differences already at t96 with GFS and to some degree with UKMO as well

D'oh silly me, wrong thread - but here will do anyway!

Edited January 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[MAF]

Irrespective of what the ECM goes on to show, there are differences already at t96 with GFS and to some degree with UKMO as well

D'oh silly me, wrong thread - but here will do anyway!

hey, you keep on posting in here with post's like that

came into work tonight from a foggy/frosty SE London to a mild and damp Central London. i hope the winter doesn't end here as i would love to see one more blast as we had in feb '09

[West Sussex Kate]

*cries* I need some exciting weather soon, a thaw just doesnt do it for me.

oh dear *help* lol!

[yamkin]

I have a feeling the MODs may re-open regional posts next week. Michael Fish, MetO and Joe B and other professionals are all going for the cold to return next week. ECM model is leading the way followed by UKMO. Will GFS 18Z follow the trend as well? We have very interesting times ahead.

[Rinse The Raindrops]

I have a feeling the MODs may re-open regional posts next week. Michael Fish, MetO and Joe B and other professionals are all going for the cold to return next week. ECM model is leading the way followed by UKMO. Will GFS 18Z follow the trend as well? We have very interesting times ahead.

let's hope so

[Paul Sherman]

Okey Dokey!

Due to lots of pleading from various members on the Different Regional Forums Have spoken with the powers that be................and

Tomorrow there will be a New Sub Forum above this one near where the Snow Reports Live called "Regional Threads" and all the Regionals are going to be moved there and stay put for the winter, so this thread will be kept open until tomorrow when it will be moved into it's new home!

Regards

Paul S

[MAF]

Okey Dokey!

Due to lots of pleading from various members on the Different Regional Forums Have spoken with the powers that be................and

Tomorrow there will be a New Sub Forum above this one near where the Snow Reports Live called "Regional Threads" and all the Regionals are going to be moved there and stay put for the winter, so this thread will be kept open until tomorrow when it will be moved into it's new home!

Regards

Paul S

cheers Paul

[danm]

I have a feeling the MODs may re-open regional posts next week. Michael Fish, MetO and Joe B and other professionals are all going for the cold to return next week. ECM model is leading the way followed by UKMO. Will GFS 18Z follow the trend as well? We have very interesting times ahead.

The current model output doesnt show a sustained cold spell developing yet, as they did a couple of weeks ago. Pressure is way too low over Greenland and to our north judging by the latest model outputs, meaning any high pressure moving west towards us has a good chance of sinking. This can, and hopefully will, change though.

Today is a classic example of the disgusting winter weather we get when its just too warm for snow. Cold, dank, damp, dreary, slushy and wet. -5c with snow is perfect.

[yamkin]

The current model output doesnt show a sustained cold spell developing yet, as they did a couple of weeks ago. Pressure is way too low over Greenland and to our north judging by the latest model outputs, meaning any high pressure moving west towards us has a good chance of sinking. This can, and hopefully will, change though.

Today is a classic example of the disgusting winter weather we get when its just too warm for snow. Cold, dank, damp, dreary, slushy and wet. -5c with snow is perfect.

The classic winters of the past had very similar set ups to what we have now. Have you watched Michael Fish's latest update? If not, it's worth watching'