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Ed Stone

South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

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Sounds just about perfect set-up tomorrow/Wednesday. Heavy snow which hopefully last for much of Tuesday night Wednesday morning givng anywhere between 10-30cm's.

Then a day or two of lying snow and then a thaw.

Where's Ian these days?

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I refer to Devon and cornwall:

I agree with 'west is best' - it is unlikely to be a big event for Devon and Cornwall.

However, if challenged to try and reason MO's forecast (with even Cornwall and Plymouth included in their warnings?!) i would say that as the low approaches it will induce a South Easterly that has been cooled and has arrived at a rate of knots from a very cold France (Overnight temps of -5 and colder). This means that the airmass between the clouds and the land is actually very cold, in comparison to the measurements of the usual upper temps, which will be farily warm.

With this is mind, little infiltration of the mild air and very heavy ppn potentially dragging down the colder air, provides a reason for some cold temps. Many models are in agreement that temperatures will be dropping slightly from around 6am to 3pm tomorrow for Devon.

NAE still going for heavy snowfall across devon and east cornwall.

However, in my opinion, only areas above 300 meters will get snow, below this may be a period of wet snow/sleet, into very cold rain later, and 2.5 to 4 oC.

Would love to be proved wrong though.

Paul

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Highest totals in terms of snowfall potential at the minute look to be in and around South East Wales/Forest of Dean area with some good potential for M5 Northbound from Bristol to Gloucester. Then there is Dartmoor - which does look to be well placed. These are without a doubt the hot spots as we speak.

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Bristol on the main news hes talking about how bristol could see 20cm :whistling: yea right closedeyes.gifacute.gif

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:whistling: I think we'd better watch Mr Angwin tonight before getting too exited. Matty on TWO says that Mr

Angwin has downgraded the snow now as the front will fall apart as it gets to Bristol. This was

on the radio this PM.

Best to just see what comes out of the sky tomorrow evening and see what happens, but it will still

be :wallbash: if it has all gone pete tong. :cray:

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Highest totals in terms of snowfall potential at the minute look to be in and around South East Wales/Forest of Dean area with some good potential for M5 Northbound from Bristol to Gloucester. Then there is Dartmoor - which does look to be well placed. These are without a doubt the hot spots as we speak.

Looking at the News24 graphics just now it looks like S.W. wales will get alomost 12 hours of snow, away from the coastal fringes. the event for BTL area, Glos, S.E.wales looks like midnight 'til 6.00am wednesday, then the system just fizzles out. Are the models the Beeb/MetO use not picking up any poss shortwave development i presume?

EDIT: I'm sure earlier today there was talk from some forecasters that the snow would hang around M4 corridor area for most of Wednesday as well - that seems to have downgraded. So looking at the trends i think this might be a damp squib for 'northern parts' of the south west. South Somerset, Mendips, Dartmoor should be OK though.

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Highest totals in terms of snowfall potential at the minute look to be in and around South East Wales/Forest of Dean area with some good potential for M5 Northbound from Bristol to Gloucester. Then there is Dartmoor - which does look to be well placed. These are without a doubt the hot spots as we speak.

:whistling: bristol yessssssssssss.

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Hey guys! How exciting this is! Hows Wiltshire looking for this upcoming event? Good i would imagine????? Further inland and in the firing line? cc_confused.gif

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Hey guys! How exciting this is! Hows Wiltshire looking for this upcoming event? Good i would imagine????? Further inland and in the firing line? cc_confused.gif

Not looking at latest forecasts. Sorry!

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Bob on west country today says wiltshire, somerset and dorset to be hit worse than last week!!! :whistling:

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Looking at the News24 graphics just now it looks like S.W. wales will get alomost 12 hours of snow, away from the coastal fringes. the event for BTL area, Glos, S.E.wales looks like midnight 'til 6.00am wednesday, then the system just fizzles out. Are the models the Beeb/MetO use not picking up any poss shortwave development i presume?

EDIT: I'm sure earlier today there was talk from some forecasters that the snow would hang around M4 corridor area for most of Wednesday as well - that seems to have downgraded. So looking at the trends i think this might be a damp squib for 'northern parts' of the south west. South Somerset, Mendips, Dartmoor should be OK though.

Where is this information coming from? The zone that has been most consistent so far, out of every zone is that South East Corner of Wales running around the periphery into Gloucester area arching into much of Wiltshire and parts of Bristol. That is my take on the evolution thus far and unless I see some change in this bias, that is where I will stick my money.

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Bob on west country today says wiltshire, somerset and dorset to be hit worse than last week!!! :whistling:

Thats what i like to hear :cray: believe it when i see it though :):wallbash:

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Simon Parkin on ITV just said Snow arriving in Dorset from late afternoon onwards!

He said a good few inches!

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hello

does anyone know about lower cornwall, does it fly pass us as rain or will it be snow tomoz afternoon???? cheersdrinks.gif

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Bob on west country today says wiltshire, somerset and dorset to be hit worse than last week!!! :lol:

Really wouldn't take much to hit Dorset worse than last week :lol:

We only need 2cm to beat last weeks snow falls.

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well there was no snow in the itv west country forecast, it was all rain/sleet for Devon and Cornwall and sunny/cloudy for Bristol ect...

Said it was going to get warmer as the week goes on. So NO snow then.

Thats ok no need to worry now.

kaz x

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Really wouldn't take much to hit Dorset worse than last week :lol:

We only need 2cm to beat last weeks snow falls.

:lol: true, we had 1 inch in east dorset so 1cm will beat last weeks! we'll get 1.1 inch tomorrow!! :lol:

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Richard just said 2-5cm for somerset bristol area!?

Thats not heavy...

Im confused.pardon.gif

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Looking at the News24 graphics just now it looks like S.W. wales will get alomost 12 hours of snow, away from the coastal fringes. the event for BTL area, Glos, S.E.wales looks like midnight 'til 6.00am wednesday, then the system just fizzles out. Are the models the Beeb/MetO use not picking up any poss shortwave development i presume?

EDIT: I'm sure earlier today there was talk from some forecasters that the snow would hang around M4 corridor area for most of Wednesday as well - that seems to have downgraded. So looking at the trends i think this might be a damp squib for 'northern parts' of the south west.South Somerset, Mendips, Dartmoor should be OK though.

That'll do me. I'll ignore everything else :lol:

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