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Thunder Snow

The Great Thaw

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It's maybe alittle early for a thread like this, but what are peoples thoughts on flooding. Rain coupled with snow melt, cant be a good thing. :unsure:

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I think it's going to thaw out slowly so flooding shouldn't really be a problem?

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I think it's going to thaw out slowly so flooding shouldn't really be a problem?

I am not expecting much rain, it has been thawing very slowly today, the most flooding may be my pond slightly overflowing. I also do not expect it to get very mild so the thaw will continue slowly.

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There is most likely going to be quite abit of snow cover left by saturday, with heavy rain moving in from the west.

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If the Eden contained what was thrown at it in November, then a few inches of snow (which is what most of its catchment area's had) isn't going to trouble it in the slightest.

Down south, where river's aren't so hard, it might be a different matter, but I don't think Carlisle's going to have any problems at least.

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It's maybe alittle early for a thread like this, but what are peoples thoughts on flooding. Rain coupled with snow melt, cant be a good thing. :)

A good question, Michael...With anything up to 100cm of snow lying around here already, there's definitely the potential for some flash flooding IMO...That said, I guess it's better to have a thaw now, than wait for 200cm of the stuff to melt in March?? :)

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As a Thames floodplain dweller whose house came close to flooding after the snow melt in 1947 (no I wasn't around to witness it, but older neighbours remember water in the streets) I'm certainly keeping an eye on the situation. I gather that local lock keepers are deliberately trying to keep the river level low, which should help. March 1947 brought torrential rain and a rapid thaw - this time it looks like being somewhat slower. But I suspect some areas, particularly in the NW, haven't fully recovered from last autumn's torrential rain.

And of course even if we don't get the heaviest rain it might fall further up the Thames catchment, so we would end up with a wave coming down the Thames a few days later, as we did in July 2007 when we were on flood warning for a week.

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If the Eden contained what was thrown at it in November, then a few inches of snow (which is what most of its catchment area's had) isn't going to trouble it in the slightest.

Down south, where river's aren't so hard, it might be a different matter, but I don't think Carlisle's going to have any problems at least.

Agreed there OON, river levels here are really low.

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From various Northern Newspapers...

Phil Younge, the Environment Agency's regional flood risk manager, said snow melt is not expected to cause significant flooding problems if it happens steadily.

"We continue to closely monitor weather conditions and river levels, which currently have capacity to cope with water from a gradual thaw," he said.

"There is a possible flood risk if rain falls as the snow melts, as this adds to the volume of water as well as speeding up the rate of thaw.

"We use weather forecasting information from the Met Office to help us determine the likelihood of flooding.

"Obviously, if river levels rise significantly we will issue timely flood watches and flood warnings in areas affected."

One community which is bracing itself for possible flooding is Allenheads. The village, in the North Pennine hills of Northumberland, currently has three feet of snow.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

You really can't compare 1947 to now.

On that occasion, huge quantities of snow had built up over six weeks or so and was followed by copious amounts of rain after the thaw in mid March.

Quite apart from the relatively much smaller falls of snow of late, and over a much shorter period, in comparison to the winter of 1947, there is no suggestion of the enormous amounts of rainfall to come either in the outlook period.

Following the snow mid week, although the snow will melt pretty steadily, there is nothing especially dramatic in terms of the thaw. For many areas it will simply turn less cold.

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Supposing Mallerstang and the Pennines have a foot of snow (I know the hills around Ullswater have far less), then that might equate to 30mm of precipitation. If 30mm fell in a day, it wouldn't cause any problems, and it's not going to melt in a day, so no worries here.

My insurance faud is going to have to wait a little longer.

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The Severn around Shrewsbury is not that high ATM... cant see all the now melting from the Welsh hills that rapidly that it would cause flooding...

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My insurance faud is going to have to wait a little longer.

I thought your fellow villagers were trying to get Fred "The JCB" to divert the stream at the bottom of your garden?

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You really can't compare 1947 to now.

On that occasion, huge quantities of snow had built up over six weeks or so and was followed by copious amounts of rain after the thaw in mid March.

Quite apart from the relatively much smaller falls of snow of late, and over a much shorter period, in comparison to the winter of 1947, there is no suggestion of the enormous amounts of rainfall to come either in the outlook period.

Following the snow mid week, although the snow will melt pretty steadily, there is nothing especially dramatic in terms of the thaw. For many areas it will simply turn less cold.

Agreed, a repeat of 1947 looks unlikely unless we get rainfall at July 2007 levels. There's a lot of snow to come off the Chilterns and Cotswolds into the Thames, but it probably won't all melt at once - and the lock keepers seem to be preparing well. Realistically what usually happens in my area after a wet spell in winter is a 'flood watch', which locally means that some of the nearby parkland in the floodplain gets flooded but otherwise it's business as usual.

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I thought your fellow villagers were trying to get Fred "The JCB" to divert the stream at the bottom of your garden?

Don't be so ridiculous....It's Kenny, not Fred.

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The 'Great thaw' is well uinder way in my area, after all the snow had done its worse there was a covering of one whole inch, or just under 2.5cm

after Sundays sleety rain, and the bit of wet snow/sleet overnight from Sunday into Monday ( today ) has kept the thaw going.

The 2cms deep snow is now down to the last few 1cm and less in places, on the roads and pavements its left a slushy mess,a nd footpaths have become a slippery muddy mess.

If the thaw picks up and depletes the snow cover further then theres a real risk of some deep puddles in places, and soggy cold feet if your out walking through the remnants of the slush.

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You really can't compare 1947 to now.

On that occasion, huge quantities of snow had built up over six weeks or so and was followed by copious amounts of rain after the thaw in mid March.

...

Agreed, March 1947 really was the worst of all worlds as far as flood risk was concerned- it was one of the wettest Marches on record, on the back of what was probably the snowiest winter of the twentieth century.

In contrast 1963 didn't have too many flood problems because much of the snow cover thawed in sunshine during late February and early March, before the Atlantic came in afterwards.

Flooding is likely to be an issue for some but I don't think we'll see anywhere near the scale of flooding that resulted from persistent frontal rainfall in the west around 17-19 November 2009.

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We have had a really slow thaw here today. All the icicles and snow remain and the temperature here never rose above 1ÂșC. The snow still remains on the sides of the main road near my house with no puddles. The temperature is just starting to dip below freezing and it is still cloudy.

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A really slow thaw here in Reigate... it never got above 0.6c today and is already below freezing... this snow is hanging around!

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Slight thaw here mainly just roads and trees loosing snow, snow grains falling most of the day in the East Wight(where I was working), I don't expect flooding on any large scale here, all depends how heavy this Atlantic block smashing or not block smashing rain, rain/snow or snow is. Some cars ,quite a lot actually, have not moved for a week, I would expect a flood of breakdowns when the snow goes and the owners try and use them.

Russ.

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Heavy rain now. Thaw well underway in east central Scotland sadly.

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