London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[SMU]

Morning All-

20cm of 'no' here making driving driving conditions a lot less hazardous-

thaw well under way & lot of expectations going down the pan when people emerge from their slumber this morning-

Worst part of today is the fact is other than the really hilly areas or areas with substantial snowcover its a bad day to go sledging- your clothing will get saturated all the way through-

Dewpoints & surface temps will stay above freezing now until probably tomorrow evening- which gives a full 36/42 hour thaw- & a really hefty one at that -especially for London, kent & the South of essex-

looking at the overnight runs- ECM is the pick of the bunch & gives us some 'hope' of snow further down towards the middle of the week, but at least for now its cold & wet & possibly the worst day for a long time......

A lot of people last night were commenting on how us 'amatuers' will be wrong & the pro's are right- IE the beeb, met office etc-

Ive got to be careful how I write this-

In this day & age the information some of us have at our finger tips its getting close to being on a level par with the professional forecasting agencies-

Whilst we arent qualified meteorologists most of the seasoned posters here have spent the last 5-7 years AT LEAST studying synoptics in the UK- more especially the detailed Winter ones, & whilst we probably wouldnt be able to create & do things like fax charts etc- the data available is MORE than enough to use that information + forecasting experience to generate a valid forecast for this region- probably more accurate than some within the media & certainly on a par with what the MET office produce-

This isnt taking ANYTHING away from the qualified mets- at the end of the day the difference being is they would be able to expalin WHY something has happened in the atmosphere, as opposed to an amateur who uses model data to forecast what they think is going to happen-& that bit of local knowledge-

I suspect it will be a lot quieter in here today, lets keep a nice atmosphere & hope that actually the ECM varifies because it does bring the continental flow in ( SE) which will dry the air out again- then moves snow in from the SW on the forward edge of the shortwave.....

best of luck - enjoy your Sunday-

Steve

Edited January 10, 2010 by Steve Murr

[neilthegooner]

News 24 said the army are on standby in Kent. Not sure why. Alex Deakin said the good news is the snow was'nt as bad a predicted last night! Missarable git!!! Get ready for the big thaw.

[Shunter]

GFS ens mean continues to rise every six hours. The game is over for the SE from Tuesday thats for sure. Enjoy the snow today peeps, its a gradual thaw, slush,dull,cool & damp week ahead after this.

[Lazarus]

Hope for later on in this winter and the next one too!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2009/12/could-the-sun-cast-a-shadow-on.shtml

[Blake7]

Well I awoke expecting to see a top up of snow only to be presented with 50% of my stash in the garden gone

The temp never dropped below 1.5c all nioght and topped out at +3

Gutted really but on the plus side I need to go out and about in the car today ...

[Chrisali]

Hi everyone, I live in High Halstow, North Kent, so close to the Thames Estuary I could almost paddle in it and this is my first post. Just thought I'd let you know that in the past 1/2 hour since I got up we have alternating 5 minute spells of light rain and heavy snow which settles quickly.

[White Christmas]

Same here maria, came straight down and looked like rain but when I checked it was definately snow.

its a shame it was over so quick, looks like we wont be getting any more for a while now

[snowblizzard]

I'm certainly no expert but I really couldn't see where that 15-20cm of snow and freezing conditions was going to come from! It's difficult to understand how the Met Office along with BBC/Sky forecasters could get it so, so wrong?

[chionomaniac]

Morning All-

20cm of 'no' here making driving driving conditions a lot less hazardous-

thaw well under way & lot of expectations going down the pan when people emerge from their slumber this morning-

Worst part of today is the fact is other than the really hilly areas or areas with substantial snowcover its a bad day to go sledging- your clothing will get saturated all the way through-

Dewpoints & surface temps will stay above freezing now until probably tomorrow evening- which gives a full 36/42 hour thaw- & a really hefty one at that -especially for London, kent & the South of essex-

looking at the overnight runs- ECM is the pick of the bunch & gives us some 'hope' of snow further down towards the middle of the week, but at least for now its cold & wet & possibly the worst day for a long time......

A lot of people last night were commenting on how us 'amatuers' will be wrong & the pro's are right- IE the beeb, met office etc-

Ive got to be careful how I write this-

In this day & age the information some of us have at our finger tips its getting close to being on a level par with the professional forecasting agencies-

Whilst we arent qualified meteorologists most of the seasoned posters here have spent the last 5-7 years AT LEAST studying synoptics in the UK- more especially the detailed Winter ones, & whilst we probably wouldnt be able to create & do things like fax charts etc- the data available is MORE than enough to use that information + forecasting experience to generate a valid forecast for this region- probably more accurate than some within the media & certainly on a par with what the MET office produce-

This isnt taking ANYTHING away from the qualified mets- at the end of the day the difference being is they would be able to expalin WHY something has happened in the atmosphere, as opposed to an amateur who uses model data to forecast what they think is going to happen-& that bit of local knowledge-

I suspect it will be a lot quieter in here today, lets keep a nice atmosphere & hope that actually the ECM varifies because it does bring the continental flow in ( SE) which will dry the air out again- then moves snow in from the SW on the forward edge of the shortwave.....

best of luck - enjoy your Sunday-

Steve

Morning Steve,

I think that the only people who doubted you where relative newcomers who do not know how much you devote yourself to your passion of snow and how much knowledge that you have built up following that devotion.

The thing that upsets me is how slow the met Office and beeb react to changing conditions whether it be lack of snow or surprise snowfall. They continue with the same forecast when it obviously isn't going to occur!

Anyway enjoy your Sunday thaw!

c

[Paul Ashford-Kent]

What time does Neil usually get up ? and is it thawing in Deal ???

Thawing big time here in Ashford

[White Christmas]

wont need to scrape the car, the snows falling off in big lumps now

[sco77harris]

woke up dissapointed that not snow fell now just suddenly going quite heavey snow outside

[snowfish]

Hi everyone, I live in High Halstow, North Kent, so close to the Thames Estuary I could almost paddle in it and this is my first post. Just thought I'd let you know that in the past 1/2 hour since I got up we have alternating 5 minute spells of light rain and heavy snow which settles quickly.

Hi Chrisali! welcome to the forum! Yes, here in North Kent, light snow is falling! Hope it does settle!

Probably be the last day for a while for snow - so enjoy it I would say! lol!

[sco77harris]

now stopped

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Hope for later on in this winter and the next one too!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...shadow-on.shtml

This would be the man made global warming toe-rags worst nightmare. I doubt though that most of them aren't even aware that all the source of earth's energy comes from the sun!

[Updraft]

Snow is now just beginning to speed up the thawing process here in Dover... looked out the window and it's dripping like crazy off the scaffolding

[The Weather Yoda]

After a brief flirtation with snizzle, we are back to snow here although very light.

Might be just enough to replace the snow thats melting. Radar shows a rash of showers moving across Kent and moving into Kent, although unsure how many will fall as snow. Still windy and pretty unpleasant to be out in. Ideally we needed a big fat anti-cyclone to come and sit on us to maintain the snow, never mind.

People reaching for the valium today should remember its still early January and things in the long term are not looking like mild will return. In fact as Steve M points out if the ECM is to be believed it could start to become cold again with snow possibilities by the end of the week.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snow Schmow

[Great Plum]

Thanks Steve for yuor assesment - kudos to you and others on here who said this would be a lot of 'no' as opposed to snow...

Did you think there were would be such a thaw?

[White Christmas]

that big blue blob coming into view on the metoffice radar...would that be snow do you think?http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Edited January 10, 2010 by maria reardon

[Barometric]

Temp sat at around 0.8c for much of the night then went up to 1.2c and as a result snow is thawing fast with DP nudging above freezing. Still managing to snow though albeit lightly in big waves of small flakes.

The N Downs should hold their cover well with temps at or just slightly below freezing, higher DP will make for rather heavy wet snow rather than the powder fest of the last few days.

I am cetainly not down beat. Over the last few years we have had to wait until Feb to collect our snow, so falling and deep lying snow in Dec and Jan has been a cracking start.

Yes I love the cold as the rest of you do however dull, damp, cold doesn't fill me with huge excitement especially as that pretty much what we are going to have all week.

Current conditions:-

Temp 0.9c

100% cloud cover

Strong ENE wind

Light snow

James

[Shunter]

Tenth consecutive day for falling snow here. Snowfall everyday this decade !!

[Methuselah]

New thread on the way...

[Lazarus]

This would be the man made global warming toe-rags worst nightmare. I doubt though that most of them aren't even aware that all the source of earth's energy comes from the sun!

Yep... This bit made me giggle!

"But many scientists, on both sides of the argument, agree that going back further in time, the sun has played a bigger role in determining global temperatures."

Apart from the sun's heat there's only radioactive decay in the earth itself and that has to have a constant half life! So there cannot be a bigger variable than the sun's output.

[Infinituum]

Hi,

Just a quick note to say that this morning was a bitter disappointment here in Waltham Abbey (just north of London/M25 Jct 26).

We had very fine snow yesterday on and off for most of the day then nada, nothing all night.

It's now 1C outside with a steel grey sky.

Having read Steve Murr's assessment I can honestly say I'm not surprised nothing has coming out of last night's activity.

We've had over a week of bitterly cold weather, seen plenty of snow (some more than others) so now it's the equivalent of New Years Day. The party is over and now its time to shovel away the slushy mess lol.

Roll on midweek when maybe the atlantic's attempts to herald milder weather may give us all in South England another layer of the white stuff...

Gloves crossed...

[Methuselah]

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