Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

noggin

Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

Recommended Posts

Are there any official meteorological adjectives to describe Winters?

Words I have seen in this thread include:

noteworthy

notable

memorable

severe

exceptional

historical

legendary

If so, how do they rank in terms of "severity" and what would be the criteria for such classification?

PS Kold......have we broken the "first 10 days of the year" cold record?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What certainly is interesting is how we've seen the jet be generally more southerly in the last 24 months or so, so something to watch over the next couple of years.

At least one thing is for sure, we ARE still able to get proper long lasting cold spells, I think this spell has been every bit as impressive as some of the cold spells that we saw in the 80s, maybe the maxes were a little higher then those but every other factor has been broadly on par.

A certain Mr.Brown's idea of not being able to get old school cold spells has been IMO destroyed by the last 30 days or so...

The modern winter theory surely has very little credibility left after the past month?

The presumption that a severe cold spell is impossible is well and truly dead anyway. If there are still some who reckon this wasn't severe then they are living in the wrong country!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are there any official meteorological adjectives to describe Winters?

Words I have seen in this thread include:

noteworthy

notable

memorable

severe

exceptional

historical

legendary

If so, how do they rank in terms of "severity" and what would be the criteria for such classification?

PS Kold......have we broken the "first 10 days of the year" cold record?

We ended up having the coldest first 10 days since 1894, so we ended up with a very impressive first 10 days of Jan...could be an outside shot if some of the days see big downward adjustments of getting even below 1894 but that will need some decent adjustments.

The even larger teapot idea whilst still standing IMO (because this winter could quite easily be an anomaly, like 1916-17 was) some of its fundimental ideas such as not being able to get a severe cold spell have been proven very false.

I think this is the first time where everything has come into play nearly perfectly for a very long time, indeed you could argue we can manage even colder spells then this one in theroy, imaigne if we had a November more like 2005, we'd have had a colder base across Europe and in the North Sea to start off with which would have been even colder...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wondered, yesterday, if this is becoming an historic Winter. Then I just heard, on the t.v., that some people in Northumberland are saying that they haven't seen it this bad since 1947! :lol:

So, although we are only a third of the way through this Winter ( :D ) I wondered if it is stacking up to become one of the famous Winters, like 1947 and 1962/3.

What are the requirements for an historic Winter? Is it extremely low temperatures? Widespread snowfall? The longevity of the conditions? The geographical spread of the conditions? The level of disruption? Or does it require a combination of those things? Will the fact that we have been able to monitor it and dissect it in real-time on the internet make it more likely to be historical, in that it is now embedded in our psyches ( :drinks: )?

Or, is it a case of only time will tell.

If anyone could spare a moment to post their thoughts on this, it would be very interesting! :wallbash:

Thank you!

I must admit the same thought had crossed my mind, Noggin but I tried to suppress it in case such thoughts have a teleconnective way of jinxing the remainder of the winter.

With regard to the requirements of an historic winter I'd say it's a combination of all the parameters you listed but with the added proviso that something particularly extreme in one parameter can outweigh something less notable in another.

The 1947 winter for instance has gone down in annals of history on the strength of a truly exceptional spell of cold and snow from late January through to mid- March; up to the point we're now at with the current winter it was nothing special at all and does not compare with winters such as 1684 or 1879 for longevity, or even 1963.

At the moment I'd say this winter is at the 'very interesting' stage. It has the advantage of the cold weather having started in mid December, which in itself is quite unusual, but to enter the hallowed ranks of the greats I feel it would either have to last well into February or come up with some widespread blizzard conditions within the next couple of weeks.

In this area at least it's the longevity of the current cold spell which is notable but it hasn't ( yet ) produced the depth of cold or the amount of snow experienced in 1979, 1985, 1987 or Feb' 1991. If we could couple the current longevity of cold with that amount of snow it would be 5 stars awarded.

It had also crossed my mind that, given the similarity in the length of period of mild winters preceeding it, that this winter just might be our equivalent of 1740. Perhaps that's just me being hopeful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What certainly is interesting is how we've seen the jet be generally more southerly in the last 24 months or so, so something to watch over the next couple of years.

At least one thing is for sure, we ARE still able to get proper long lasting cold spells, I think this spell has been every bit as impressive as some of the cold spells that we saw in the 80s, maybe the maxes were a little higher then those but every other factor has been broadly on par.

Those higher maxes may well, in part, be a consequence of high sunshine amounts, which were also reflected by clear skies leading to notably low minima in many places. One notable aspect of the cold weather from 17 December to 9 January was the emphasis on sunshine and snow showers rather than frontal snowfalls and areas of stable weather cloud in between- I think the extent to which this prevailed was pretty unusual. This resulted in about 50% more sunshine than usual over the country as a whole- a much larger excess than in, say, the relatively sunny months of January & February 1963 or January 1979.

However we look like making up for the lack of cloudy conditions this week and probably the next as we're picking up a bias towards a Scandinavian rather than Greenland High which tends to produce more cloudy snowy conditions rather than bright snowy ones, with suppressed diurnal ranges.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

exceptional would be likely.

legendary if we experience cold through the rest of january into feb and march.

but as philip eden said if winter starts before christmas normally over by febuary i hope this dont happen but its possible.

all i can say its been a very longtime since ive seen snow lying for several days.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has got to be an historic "something"!

Apart from our dumping just before Christmas and the one from last week (which is still here!), it has now been snowing here for 19 hours with no let-up in sight!

Blimey, talk about a Winter wonderland..... :)

I really do wish we had the posts from the old forums, i'm pretty sure we are around where we both said things would get interesting?? Noggin, are you still observing a slow but steady return to more cold/snow? (& before anyone slates us these observations go back to circa 2002, we both woth outside(by memory?). ps, sorry for saying just the MAN in a reply, i've only just realised you are female!!!! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

exceptional would be likely.

legendary if we experience cold through the rest of january into feb and march.

but as philip eden said if winter starts before christmas normally over by febuary i hope this dont happen but its possible.

all i can say its been a very longtime since ive seen snow lying for several days.:)

I have a lot of respect for Philip Eden, but if that's what he said, then I think he's wrong. Significant prolonged snowy weather rarely sets in before Christmas but of the limited subset of winters we have, there doesn't seem to be much of a relationship with a mild snowless February and spring.

1981/82 was certainly a good example of an early winter followed by warm February and generally warm spring (though it did have a few northerly outbreaks), but we also have 1950/51, when a severe December was followed by a long sequence of months with near or below average temperature and frequent snowfalls. Meanwhile, the winters of 1962/63 and 1978/79 didn't kick off much later in the season than this one did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the most severe snowy spell since January/february 1985 combined,february 1986 only gave half the amount to start with and there was more thawing in the sun as this cold spell none on fields.

The deepest drifts since february 1985 our lane is blocked E/SE wind does that,last time that happened was then but everywhere was blocked then.

:p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a lot of respect for Philip Eden, but if that's what he said, then I think he's wrong. Significant prolonged snowy weather rarely sets in before Christmas but of the limited subset of winters we have, there doesn't seem to be much of a relationship with a mild snowless February and spring.

1981/82 was certainly a good example of an early winter followed by warm February and generally warm spring (though it did have a few northerly outbreaks), but we also have 1950/51, when a severe December was followed by a long sequence of months with near or below average temperature and frequent snowfalls. Meanwhile, the winters of 1962/63 and 1978/79 didn't kick off much later in the season than this one did.

Not forgetting 1916/7, which started with a cold December and not only lasted through to February but also produced a very cold March and April.

Also, I'm sure December 1962 was cold and wintry before the Big Freeze set in after Christmas Day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a lot of respect for Philip Eden, but if that's what he said, then I think he's wrong. Significant prolonged snowy weather rarely sets in before Christmas but of the limited subset of winters we have, there doesn't seem to be much of a relationship with a mild snowless February and spring.

1981/82 was certainly a good example of an early winter followed by warm February and generally warm spring (though it did have a few northerly outbreaks), but we also have 1950/51, when a severe December was followed by a long sequence of months with near or below average temperature and frequent snowfalls. Meanwhile, the winters of 1962/63 and 1978/79 didn't kick off much later in the season than this one did.

A more recent example of cold setting in before christmas being a precursor to a cold winter overall was 1995, though Jan 96 turned out average, cold did come back in the latter third of the month and Feb and March 96 were consistently cold. On the flip side, 96/97 was similiar though to much less cold degree to 81/82, i.e. from mid Jan 97 we saw persistant mild conditions. I don't listen to Philip Eden.

In recent winters the second half has been much colder than the first half, with Feb and even early March think back to 05 and 06 seeing the coldest weather of the season. Plenty of mileage in this winter yet I feel, in northern parts a good 2 months still (I always feel the first half of March in the north has potential to deliver anything as bit as cold that be delivered through the rest of the winter especially if an arctic northerly develops).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to go on what its been like here-nothing like it since I started recording the weather properly in January 1997 and its certainly back to 1987 for anything like this area as a whole is having. Posibly it will go back to 1981-82.

I have had snow falling on 17 days since mid December, lying (more than half cover at 0900) on 21 mornings along with 26 air frosts-so way way above the average for the whole of winter here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're now onto the 30th day where the temperature hasnt reached 5C. Since my records began in 1982 the maximum number of consecutive days where the temperature has failed to reach 5C is 38, from 23rd January - 3rd March 1986.

The 30 day mean is also just 0.5C.

Its certainly turning out to be a notable spell here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realistically, the vast majority of cold winters have some form of mild spell within them

1954-55 had a 3 week mild spell from the last third of January to the first third of February, the cold dominated from then onwards to well into March.

1984-85 had a week or so of very mild weather between the two cold spells.

1981-82 was largely over for potent wintry weather by mid January but even so it had a coldish spell around mid February onwards.

Even winters like 1916-17 and 1928-29 had mild spells in them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well here we are in late Jan and once again looking at a fairly decent cold northerly flow coming down, so how much further do we all think this winter has to get to be historic...

I personally think after the 11 Dec-15th Jan period, we are probably already there....and with the CET as low as it will be for Jan (probably between 1-1.5C) I think we have probably reached historic status for this winter, something we came probably close to in 95-96 but the last one of those has to be 90-91...

Now the next target is to try and get into the exclusive club of legendary winters, Feb probably has to come in even colder then Jan...but who knows whats round the corner!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That ECM 12z comes off it sure will be historic, will be talked about in the same sentence as 47 and 63

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The interpretation of historic will differ for every individual based primarily on the factor of locality. For the Lake District though the period 17th Dec - 14th Jan was a notably cold one, I would only class the period between the 3rd-9th Jan as severe and therefore close to 'historic' in category. One severe week doesn't however make a historic winter.

In terms of snowfall, we fared well before christmas with a notable heavy fall for the time of year, however, most places saw no more than 3 inches in early Jan, we just escaped the large totals over Lancashire. Still the depths on the hills have been the deepest for many a year.

Its going to take an exceptional Feb in order for me to class this winter as historic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here on the coast its usually quite difficult to get severe winter conditions in any winter. This year has certain at times so far delivered some fairlty severe conditions in December/early Jan, and for this location it might well be that we have to back even further than 1981/82 to find a similar winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1917/18: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/78: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.41C (to Jan 28th provisonally)

A mean of 3.22C required in the remaining 31 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1917/18: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/78: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.41C (to Jan 28th provisonally)

A mean of 3.22C required in the remaining 31 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

Thanks for that

Much hangs in the balance at present (re a return to real cold) although no sign of anything mild or even average in the next 10 days.

A tough call, id give it 50/50 for a top 10 place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think as you say Stew its in the balance but to get 3.22C we don't even need a full blooded easterly, a SE airflow that lasts long enough and does drag in the odd area of colder air here and there will do the job. However its not a done deal, but a 31 day period of 3.22C is more then do-able even before the last 2 winters of somewhat colder temps.

Worth remembering that adjustments in Jan could well raise the figure needed just a touch as well so the real value needed for the next 31 days maybe closer to 3.3C.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1917/18: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/78: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.41C (to Jan 28th provisonally)

A mean of 3.22C required in the remaining 31 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

Just out of interest, where do 1981/2, 1995/6 and 1990/1 appear in the table? Surely we can't be in line to beat 1981/2 without another very cold spell - or did the warmer February push it down the list?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dec 81 - Jan 82 1.45c

Dec 81 - Feb 82 2.5c

Dec 90 - Jan 91 3.8c

Dec 90 - Feb 1991 3.03

Dec 95 - Jan 96 3.3c

Dec 95 - Feb 96 3.03

It's still far from certain whether we're going to beat those two winters or even 1996/1997.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...