General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

[Gray-Wolf]

Why would the movement of natural forcings towards neutral phases cause cooling? Surely we would need [i[negative phases to cause cooling. Would neutrality not simply lead to more neutral temperature trends (temperature stasis, if you like)? If so then is this not what we have seen over the last few decade or so?

CB

Happy New Year C-Bob!

Back in my old 'Beeb' days folk were mooting the onset of the PDO -ve 30yr cool down.

I know Jethro and I have been over this ad infinitum but what if 98' should have been the start of a 30yr 'cold period'?

As it pans out it's been trying to go neg since 98/99 but the numbers didn't quite get it there (a couple of neg moments but then neutral/positive again).

Could it be that we are in the middle of a neg phase but it's moderation by AGW has just given us the past 2 years of northern hemisphere cold winters instead of the old 60's/70's stylee of our youths?

As ever time alone will tell but if the global flatline should have been a global fall then we have our answer (and may the gods help us when it swings positive proper again).

[Thundery wintry showers]

My argument re. forcings runs as follows:

In the 1990s we had a bias towards El Nino events at the expense of La Nina events, and during an El Nino the global temperature rises by as much as 0.2C above what it would be if the ENSO state was neutral, as happened in 1998. During the 2000s the average state of ENSO has been close to neutral, so on that basis, all other things being equal I'd expect the 2000s to be up to 0.1C colder than the 1990s.

Then there's the state of the NAO- it's still been mainly positive in the 2000s, but less strongly so than in the 1990s. A positive NAO helps to generate warmer than average winter temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere as it results in a pattern of warm anomalies over Eurasia and cold anomalies over the oceans. Thus I would expect, all other things being equal, a decline of up to 0.1C from that, at least for the Northern Hemisphere temperature.

When I add those two together that's where I get my suspicion that the 2000s should have been 0.1-0.2C cooler than they have been. Of course, as Solar Cycles correctly pointed out, it doesn't automatically follow from this that AGW made up the difference as there are other factors to consider as well, but it's a line of evidence to support the position that AGW still exists to a significant degree.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone see the 10 o'clock news with the AGW report. They dismissed the cuurent NH cold and highlighted the warmth in Greece etc saying what unusual warmth. USA, W/N Europe all below normal. When looked at the 'unusual' smal area of warmth..to the east nearly ALL of Asia was...yep cold. It really was a sad attemtp to keep AGW alive

BFTP

[Mark Bayley]

Anyone see the 10 o'clock news with the AGW report. They dismissed the cuurent NH cold and highlighted the warmth in Greece etc saying what unusual warmth. USA, W/N Europe all below normal. When looked at the 'unusual' smal area of warmth..to the east nearly ALL of Asia was...yep cold. It really was a sad attemtp to keep AGW alive

BFTP

Yes, i have noticed them and the met office emphasizing areas that a warm yet not really mentioning areas that are cold. This met office report shows this. Although they show a map then don't mention anywhere else that is cold. Wouldn't one expect areas in Spain, Grease etc to be milder. The jet stream being further south would mean low pressure systems crashing into them bringing milder and wetter than average weather?

http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100106b.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Ms Kirkwood on BBC news just mentioned the low temps in NW Scottyland saying the record low was set on jan 7th 03'. I'm taking this as a further omen for the summer where I expect to do the whole of the world cup in the garden (T.V. outside) in me shorts

[andymusic]

They had an expert on the bbc news 24 a day or so ago going on about the UK's cold and how it was a blip just for us (wrong - USA rest of Europe and Asia all freezing) - I had to laugh when he said that - I understand that climate and weather events are different but, the earth has been around for millions of years with temp increases and decreases - ice ages and warmer periods etc - so it has been affected by the sun's output and other earth bound factors over all that time and just like the weather (it adjusts itself to re-align the balance) - I feel the climate may well do a similar thing - mother nature cannot be controlled by governments and if any government thinks they can control the temp of the earth then they are sadly mistaken. I think over the coming couple of decades we will be going into a cooling period which will cause a complete upset to climate change scientists/governments - the earth has naturally cooled and warmed up for millions of years even before we humans came along and it will continue to do so "naturally"

excerpt from Joe B's latest Blog

THE STONES ARE PROPHETS!

Way back when winters were cold and there was no talk of Global warming, the Stones had a song called Winter. Since I think that this winter is precursor of winters to come, and a throwback to winters past, a few lines out from the song are required here. And it sure been a cold, cold winter and the wind ain't been blowin' from the south. It's sure been a cold, cold winter and a lotta love is all burned out. It sure been a hard, hard winter, my feet been draggin' 'cross the ground. And I hope it's gonna be a long, hot summer, and a lotta love will be burnin' bright. A great weather related song..from the greatest rock and roll band.. ever. Just another reason that we here in the states are thankful for europe.. and Britain!

Edited January 8, 2010 by andymusic

[Gray-Wolf]

Well theres a worry;

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100107183136.htm

increasing temps reduce trees ability to take up CO2......

[Devonian]

Anyone see the 10 o'clock news with the AGW report. They dismissed the cuurent NH cold and highlighted the warmth in Greece etc saying what unusual warmth.

No they did not, they put it into a context. They showed a globe with warm and cold areas - I suppose they could have coloured the warm areas blue to make you happy

USA, W/N Europe all below normal. When looked at the 'unusual' smal area of warmth..to the east nearly ALL of Asia was...yep cold. It really was a sad attemtp to keep AGW alive

BFTP

So, you did see the map? It has been warm over the med, SW Asia, Africa, parts of Canada and the US. There is nothing 'sad' about presenting the facts - except, perhaps, that some people refuse to see them?

They had an expert on the bbc news 24 a day or so ago going on about the UK's cold and how it was a blip just for us (wrong - USA rest of Europe and Asia all freezing) - I had to laugh when he said that - I understand that climate and weather events are different but, the earth has been around for millions of years with temp increases and decreases - ice ages and warmer periods etc - so it has been affected by the sun's output and other earth bound factors over all that time and just like the weather (it adjusts itself to re-align the balance) - I feel the climate may well do a similar thing - mother nature cannot be controlled by governments and if any government thinks they can control the temp of the earth then they are sadly mistaken. I think over the coming couple of decades we will be going into a cooling period which will cause a complete upset to climate change scientists/governments - the earth has naturally cooled and warmed up for millions of years even before we humans came along and it will continue to do so "naturally"

If mother nature cannot be controlled why did the passenger pigeon go extinct? if mother nature cannot be controlled how come vast tracts of this planet have been changed to farmland by our activities? if mother nature cannot be controlled how come fish are fished close to extinction in many places? Surely mother nature would stop these damaging effects on her?

Sorry, but 'mother nature' (well the planet) can and is being changed by our activities - and the atmosphere is not escaping that.

Oh, and btw, people like me want to see the amount of climate changing greenhouse gas we release into the atmosphere reduced. That is to REDUCE our effect on the climate not control it.

excerpt from Joe B's latest Blog

THE STONES ARE PROPHETS!

Way back when winters were cold and there was no talk of Global warming, the Stones had a song called Winter. Since I think that this winter is precursor of winters to come, and a throwback to winters past, a few lines out from the song are required here. And it sure been a cold, cold winter and the wind ain't been blowin' from the south. It's sure been a cold, cold winter and a lotta love is all burned out. It sure been a hard, hard winter, my feet been draggin' 'cross the ground. And I hope it's gonna be a long, hot summer, and a lotta love will be burnin' bright. A great weather related song..from the greatest rock and roll band.. ever. Just another reason that we here in the states are thankful for europe.. and Britain!

Blimey, he's forecasting cold weather - there's a thing eh

Edited January 8, 2010 by Devonian

[Dartmoor_Matt]

No they did not, they put it into a context. They showed a globe with warm and cold areas - I suppose they could have coloured the warm areas blue to make you happy

Really? Seemed very out of context to me, in a report on the cold here he highlighted the one area of warm in pretty much the whole of the N'ern Hemisphere and said that was unusual.

Surely whats 'unusual' is the fact that we aren't getting winds from the SW (which is the dominant direction and has been for a very long time) and instead getting from the North and East...

Anyway, I agree with BFTP on this one. Everyone in the house just laughed as well when it came on.

[Methuselah]

I'm sure I remember some folks suggesting that 2007 was going to be the start of an humungous run of cold winters? The reasons given (if I remember rightly?) were Natural Cycles, and that AGW doesn't exist... :unknw: :) :unsure:

[Solar Cycles]

I'm sure I remember some folks suggesting that 2007 was going to be the start of an humungous run of cold winters? The reasons given (if I remember rightly?) were Natural Cycles, and that AGW doesn't exist... :) :)

Not me Pete, I predicted that 2009 onwards, would see a return to colder than average winters. The reason, Natural Cycles over riding the small effect that AGW as had on our climate!

[Gray-Wolf]

And if 2010 comes in as the hottest on record (as predicted) will you re-consider S.C.? Mighty fine Nino out there at the moment, Big, big warm pool south of that, a lot of energy being pumped into the atmosphere at present?

[Solar Cycles]

And if 2010 comes in as the hottest on record (as predicted) will you re-consider S.C.? Mighty fine Nino out there at the moment, Big, big warm pool south of that, a lot of energy being pumped into the atmosphere at present?

Well if it did that would be down to El-Nino, not AGW GW! But I will put my head on the line now, and say 2010 will NOT be the hottest on record!

[Devonian]

Really? Seemed very out of context to me, in a report on the cold here he highlighted the one area of warm in pretty much the whole of the N'ern Hemisphere and said that was unusual.

The one area? I think you're the one who needs to get a context tbh. There is cold in the north of the Northern Hemisphere but above normal temperature across the southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

Look at this temperature map (below) from the Met O for the last week in December. I've changed the map projection used to make it equal area using this natty programme from GISS. Looking at that and looking at the satellite data for December already in and the only conclusion is there is no way is the whole of the Northern Hemisphere having a cold winter. - period.

Surely whats 'unusual' is the fact that we aren't getting winds from the SW (which is the dominant direction and has been for a very long time) and instead getting from the North and East...

Yes, it is unusual and it really is very cold here. But, the Northern hemisphere (the bit of the planet North of the equator) was above normal last month and there is every chance it will be this.

Anyway, I agree with BFTP on this one. Everyone in the house just laughed as well when it came on.

It's easy for us laymen to laugh at climate experts in cold spells - but laymen will look pretty silly if we see record warm years in the decades to come. I'm sticking with what scientist and science says not layman - I don't myself think I know better than them

Edited January 8, 2010 by Devonian

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Odd, the US was showing -2C in New York the other day and only 12C in Miami... is that not cold enough for ya?

Anyway, new year n all that so I'm not bothering with the endless circles down here any more.

[Devonian]

Odd, the US was showing -2C in New York the other day and only 12C in Miami... is that not cold enough for ya?

Anyway, new year n all that so I'm not bothering with the endless circles down here any more.

I'm posting the data and the evidence. A 'I'm not bothering any more' reply doesn't convince me it's wrong.

-2C isn't that cold for New York in January, 12C in Miami is cold for there though. Looks like the same temperature anomaly pattern is still happening in the US like it is here.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No they did not, they put it into a context. They showed a globe with warm and cold areas - I suppose they could have coloured the warm areas blue to make you happy :lol:

So, you did see the map? It has been warm over the med, SW Asia, Africa, parts of Canada and the US. There is nothing 'sad' about presenting the facts - except, perhaps, that some people refuse to see them?

Yes Dev I saw the map and I listened to and watched the 'highlighting' ONLY of the area around Greece and Turkey. It was naff and a ridiculous attempt at AGW propaganda.

A ridiculous report pure and simple.

[Devonian]

Yes Dev I saw the map and I listened to and watched the 'highlighting' ONLY of the area around Greece and Turkey. It was naff and a ridiculous attempt at AGW propaganda.

A ridiculous report pure and simple.

Dismissing something doesn't make it wrong does it?

Please refute what I say with your own map or data please or I'll remain distinctly unimpressed by your 'argument'.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Dismissing something doesn't make it wrong does it?

Please refute what I say with your own map or data please or I'll remain distinctly unimpressed by your 'argument'.

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/arctic_oscillation-thumb.jpg

Dev

The report AND PLEASE READ AGAIN, the report on 10 o'clock news highlighted the fact that it being warm around Greece AND Turkey was evidence that AGW was still arounfd despite the widespread cold. So it was utter nonsense. Now the temp map you show is completely in lkine with what one should see in -VE AO set up.

[sunny starry skies]

Anyone see the 10 o'clock news with the AGW report. They dismissed the cuurent NH cold and highlighted the warmth in Greece etc saying what unusual warmth. USA, W/N Europe all below normal. When looked at the 'unusual' smal area of warmth..to the east nearly ALL of Asia was...yep cold. It really was a sad attemtp to keep AGW alive

BFTP

Sorry BFTP but you were clearly being quite blinkered in watching that. What he was saying was just what I've been trying to say to people here the last few days. There is a fundamental difference between weather and climate. It is very unusual weather we are having, but when all is done and dusted, practically nothing to do with global climate. It was quite a good graphic to show that some parts of the Northern Hemisphere were warmer than average and others cooler. Remember that places such as North Africa are in the Northern Hemisphere too (and were warmer than average I think), quite apart from the other side of the globe that he didn't show. Good chart Dev - please, people, look at the NH and try and say that it's all cold?!?!

Some people seem a little quick to take a few years that are not as warm as the hottest years ever recorded as a cooling trend, when they were quite unwilling to take 30 years of mostly warming trend as evidence of warming! Just a tad hypocritical perhaps? Remember 2009 is still comfortably in the top 10 ever warmest years, so no real sign of "cooling".

Some papers coming out now that appear to be demonstrating the "missing link" in observations of AGW:

if the theory goes thus: 1: CO2 (and methane etc) is a greenhouse gas, 2: we are emitting vastly more of them into the atmosphere, 3: we observe a significant global temperature increase, then 4: we most likely cause GW.

Most people ageee with steps 1 to 3, but some have trouble with 4, maybe beacause they think perhaps we haven't actually observed the CO2, methane etc actually doing the warming.

Well it seems that we have:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JD011800.shtml

http://landshape.org/enm/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/philipona2004-radiation.pdf

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html

...to name but a few. Basically the concept is that we can actually observe the outgoing longwave radiation (a measure of Earth's cooling to space), or observe from the surface of Earth the downward longwave radiation increase that is the signature of warming due to increased GHGs. You can tell it's the GHGs doing the warming because of the specific wavelengths that the radiation is emitted at. These papers are suggesting direct observations to prove the theory of AGW. And they are not just hearsay on a random blog either, they're in JGR and Nature. I'm sure there are more out there but I've no time to look just now.

I would expect more articles in the future to corroborate these observations.

Oh, mike Meehan - I think you need to get some global climate 101 before you waste too much time on inaccurate pieces. It's a well-known fact that CO2 changes followed climate rather than leading it during ice ages, and on a geological scale there is even more going on, such as weathering of carbonates. But that's old news, as we know there is more than one way to force the climate of the earth. Some of those ways are (whisper it) natural in origin, likely including the source for the MWP, which was NOT global, or the mid-Holocene Optimum. The key argument is that today we're forcing it in one particular way, with CO2 this time leading, not following.

If you really want to get your knickers in a twist, how about this one:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/h328n0425378u736/

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8014.html

Bill Ruddiman has spent some significant time with this theory, and having seen a talk by him it's actually quite reasonably convincing... that our impact on the climate system actually began 6-8000years ago with the dawn of agriculture. He showed a graph at that talk connecting small sudden declines in atmospheric CO2 concommitant to episode of devastating war or disease around the world over the past 1000 years or so. Interesting theory. For me the best evidence is the comparison between global temperature during the past half-dozen or so interglacials, insolation levels and how the Holocene temperature just does not decline as it should have. It sounded like Ruddiman's having trouble convincing some of his colleagues, but he's got some quite persuasive evidence.

Food (or agriculture) for thought!

sss

[Devonian]

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/arctic_oscillation-thumb.jpg

Dev

The report AND PLEASE READ AGAIN, the report on 10 o'clock news highlighted the fact that it being warm around Greece AND Turkey was evidence that AGW was still arounfd despite the widespread cold. So it was utter nonsense. Now the temp map you show is completely in lkine with what one should see in -VE AO set up.

Blast, the problem is it HAS been warm in Greece and Turkey. Do you want the BBC to say it's cold when it's warm, or not report warm weather? Should the BBC only report cold weather? Look at the map I produced, there are large areas of warm weather. I think you may not want to know that but I'm interested in the weather warm or cold and the climate likewise.

Global temperature remain well above normal.

Edited January 8, 2010 by Devonian

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sorry BFTP but you were clearly being quite blinkered in watching that.

Err no I'm not sss. This set up is very much in line with -AO. Warm Greece and Turkey doess not have anything to do with AGW as the report suggested. It was very misleading in favour of AGW. Its that simple, it was a very poor, misleading report. I don't think one winter changes anything, but two winters makes one sit uop and look, a southerly tracking jetstream for 3 years makes one sit up and look...all in line with solar phases, perturbation cycle, PDO etc.

Dev yes in -ve AO one SHOULD expect that, lets not blame it on AGW? Yes

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sunny starry skies]

http://global-warmin...ation-thumb.jpg

Dev

The report AND PLEASE READ AGAIN, the report on 10 o'clock news highlighted the fact that it being warm around Greece AND Turkey was evidence that AGW was still arounfd despite the widespread cold. So it was utter nonsense. Now the temp map you show is completely in lkine with what one should see in -VE AO set up.

BFTP, the whole focus of the article was to separate the weather from the AGW climate argument, which is probably not something that the average layperson is likely to do. the temp map is of course in line with a -ve AO setup, as that is what we have! It's still possible that the NH as a whole might post average or above average temperatures though for December or this month, though it may not feel like that to us. The reporter was saying that you need to look at the whole globe and preferrably over many (I think he said 30) years before you worry about climate, specifically to separate out what happens in this individual month from any discussion about the climate. It does not, however, sit well with reports in the past that have said XX weather in YY place is due to gobal warming (and the BBC has had a fair few of those). Again that's weather, not climate and the media need to separate out the two or they get into these kinds of knots.

sss

Edit: The report was only misleading BFTP if you were looking for it. I've just looked at the monthly global temperature anomalies for the last 10 years and can't see anything to suggest that last winter was spectacularly cold. It was cold here, but that's just weather. And if we have such perfect conditions for cold in terms of PDO etc why has it not got cooler this decade and temperatures are far above 1960s values?

Edited January 8, 2010 by sunny starry skies

[Devonian]

Err no I'm not sss. This set up is very much in line with -AO. Warm Greece and Turkey doess not have anything to do with AGW as the report suggested. It was very misleading in favour of AGW. Its that simple, it was a very poor, misleading report. I don't think one winter changes anything, but two winters makes one sit uop and look, a southerly tracking jetstream for 3 years makes one sit up and look...all in line with solar phases, perturbation cycle, PDO etc.

Dev yes in -ve AO one SHOULD expect that, lets not blame it on AGW? Yes

BFTP

"Warm Greece and Turkey does not have anything to do with AGW as the report suggested." Not anything? how do you know? I think that is a misleading thing to say. And yes, there is a index of broad pressure changes called the AO, but just because there is doesn't mean AGW isn't having an impact as well.

SO, three years is now climatologically significant? Surely not, else we'd have 'proven' AGW years ago...

[Solar Cycles]

"Warm Greece and Turkey does not have anything to do with AGW as the report suggested." Not anything? how do you know? I think that is a misleading thing to say. And yes, there is a index of broad pressure changes called the AO, but just because there is doesn't mean AGW isn't having an impact as well.

SO, three years is now climatologically significant? Surely not, else we'd have 'proven' AGW years ago...

I can't believe this argument is taking place. Dev, SSS, the article in question was cherry picking at it's worst. Mind you a wounded animal is always at it's most dangerous when cornered. So I expect many more cherry picked articles, to demonstrate how AGW is the root cause, of any exceptional warmth to be found globally!