East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Great Plum]

I'm with some other people on this I don't know anything about technical weather what is 18z and stuff please explain all I want It to do is snow

There are on the website somewhere (can someone help me out?) some tutorials that tell you in greater detail what the models mean... 18Z is one of the 4 daily GFS weather models runs. It is called the 18Z because it is run at 18.00 hours and we get to see it about 3 and a half hours later...

As for snow, well, I'm not sure where you are (it's always good to put a location in your profile) but in the south east generally, we should see something from a front Tuesday / Wednesday and there is a chance of further snow as the week goes on - it's all up in the air though! (cue bad pun...)

For here as of weds the BBC forecast sun on weds, light snow thurs and sun on fri. So this snowy week, does anyone actually know where it's meant to be snowy? I've got it as Kent/EA. Which will fit in with the weather advisories.

The BBC 5 day forecasts are never much good - they very rarely put any snow in there at all... your best bet is the netweather local forecasrs imho...

[Ocean Transit]

LARGE flakes!!! It's coming down now

Looking good for canterbury & Faversham

The shower just keeps on growing on radar. Looks like a good hour or more for you.

[nick sussex]

In terms of snowfall at present there is uncertainty regarding a low over southern Europe, this acts to strengthen the easterly flow, as for upgrades or downgrades KW should know better than to say too much in here given the propensity for this thread to turn from mass snow hysteria to ringing the Samaritans!

So please take my advice, we'll have a much better idea of things by later tomorrow, even KW comment about a downgrade made me laugh, a downgrade if you were living in Canada but still wonderful for the se.

[Neilsouth]

Even Heavier , this snow shower is great!

[Southender]

18z can take a running jump off southend pier. Back to snowmaggedon in the morning (hopefully!)

[yamkin]

Snowing Lightly here

[Brassmonkeylily]

evening from Woldingham ....... currently -3 with a light snow flurry ... settling nicely ...... here we go!!! a strarter for 10!

[Snowydays]

Will tunbridge wells get this snow shower it's snowing at the moment and has been for a couple of hours now ?

[Neilsouth]

Will tunbridge wells get this snow shower it's snowing at the moment and has been for a couple of hours now ?

Not at it's current intensity , i expect it to decay rapidly inland as the others have done

[Discombobulation Man]

I agree with Kold and others who hope the GFS 18z was a synoptical outlier. . . from London's point of view; the big snow beast on the GFS 12z earlier would of given us the best chance of an absolute pasting here in the centre of London. Sure, the 18z still looks pretty good for London to get some decent accumulations from the Tues/Wed/Thurs saga but already by late Sunday the 18z wants to bring in marginal air. . . and the dream of seeing the real beast in my life time lives on. . .

Here's my favourite chart from the 12z earlier and I'm sure it would of delivered epic spankings to even C London. . .

[Great Plum]

Just up the road from me Yamkin... so near, and yet so far!!

[Hammer]

Neilsouth you have repeatedly said we will get this snow,please help me and explain if and when we might get a good covering,i love watching what you guys write and am very interested in the weather ,i am not an expert by any means but want to learn about the weather especially cold and snow,tell me is the weekend weather cancelled like some are saying???????????

snow that is??

Wee.

Nobody can provide you with a 100% accurate answer for you, today for something 5 to 6 days away. What can be said is that the trend is towards increasingly colder conditions, then from Tuesday onwards in this region there is a snow threat, more so in the northern/eastern parts of the region earlier in the week but then pretty much the whole region as we reach Wednesday and Thursday. Some model runs are suggesting an even greater event Friday/Saturday and others not so keen on things being so potent.

My advice is don't concentrate on one model run, but look at the trend from several as well as over several days rather than just in one 6 hour period.

We will all start having a greater idea about Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week as we go through this week.

Should be plenty to enjoy before then.

[rmc1987]

Ermmm , is that the website forecast?. Because it looks it

Indeed, that's from the BBC website. I don't get it....if it's meant to be a big event and looks like missing me. I had fairly decent fall before Christmas here but when I look at my forecast it doesn't look good. Yet earlier it looked ok....

[Neilsouth]

Indeed, that's from the BBC website. I don't get it....if it's meant to be a big event and looks like missing me. I had fairly decent fall before Christmas here but when I look at my forecast it doesn't look good. Yet earlier it looked ok....

It's totaly totaly inaccurate , it's basically the same as the teletext forecasts of old!

Just use this forum

3CM on the ground here now

[Southender]

a nice dusting of 1cm or so here in last 2 hrs. Unexpected and nice to look at. Bring on next week.

[maidstone weather]

It's totaly totaly inaccurate , it's basically the same as the teletext forecasts of old!

Just use this forum

3CM on the ground here now

about 0.5cm on the floor from proper powdery snow here, been snowing all evening lightly on and off

[nanu]

Indeed, that's from the BBC website. I don't get it....if it's meant to be a big event and looks like missing me. I had fairly decent fall before Christmas here but when I look at my forecast it doesn't look good. Yet earlier it looked ok....

that keeps chopping and changing all the thime and will do till around midweek when it will start to stick to one theme.. i would ignore it for now, same goes for most of the models till nearer the time.. ive learnt my lesson that way.

[maidstone weather]

when was today's snow showers forecast? probably last night at the earliest. Don't worry about later this week at this stage, it could all change

[Great Plum]

Very lightly snowing here now!

[Rich44]

Bloody BBC Look East they just showed the cold front coming down and then showed it falling as rain over north norfolk, come one it's snowing now

Edited January 3, 2010 by Rich44

[simon65]

i think the snow showers will be feeding into the kent area most of the night ,nothing huge but most of the night

and i also think its going to start snowing further inland by monday ,tuesday night ,and my wind direction has frozen again

i might be totally wrong but its what i believe and whats the fun of not trying to predict the weather

Current data for Linslade

03 January 2010 23:16:01

Temperature (°C):

Current -3.7

Trend (per hour) -0.4

Average today -0.2

Wind chill -3.7

Heat Index -3.7

Dew Point -4.9

Rel Humidity 91%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 2.2 N

Average Speed 0.7 N

Pressure (mb):

Current 1023.7

Trend (per hour) -0.2

Edited January 3, 2010 by simon65

[sco77harris]

well my giant snowball just about survived the mild spell with the aid of an umbrella thats all ive got to look at out of my window.

[yamkin]

I agree with Kold and others who hope the GFS 18z was a synoptical outlier. . . from London's point of view; the big snow beast on the GFS 12z earlier would of given us the best chance of an absolute pasting here in the centre of London. Sure, the 18z still looks pretty good for London to get some decent accumulations from the Tues/Wed/Thurs saga but already by late Sunday the 18z wants to bring in marginal air. . . and the dream of seeing the real beast in my life time lives on. . .

Here's my favourite chart from the 12z earlier and I'm sure it would of delivered epic spankings to even C London. . .

We will still get quite a lot of snow from Tuesday night for about 48 hrs non stop and then a slight pause and then more snow. that can't be bad in my books.

[wee]

Wee.

Nobody can provide you with a 100% accurate answer for you, today for something 5 to 6 days away. What can be said is that the trend is towards increasingly colder conditions, then from Tuesday onwards in this region there is a snow threat, more so in the northern/eastern parts of the region earlier in the week but then pretty much the whole region as we reach Wednesday and Thursday. Some model runs are suggesting an even greater event Friday/Saturday and others not so keen on things being so potent.

My advice is don't concentrate on one model run, but look at the trend from several as well as over several days rather than just in one 6 hour period.

We will all start having a greater idea about Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week as we go through this week.

Should be plenty to enjoy before then.

Thankyou Hammer,i will go to bed feeling a little bit more hopefull lol,what will be will be,and i will try and not get my hopes up for the big snow event,if it happens it does,will be back on tomorrow to check on what is happening lol

[Petrina]

Snowing in Deal, albeit very gently. Thin skin covering cars but not on paths and roads.