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General Model Output Discussion

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A new thread in time for the 12z run

Before we continue, may we remind everyone that this thread is for discussing the Model Output ONLY. Therefore, please ensure that your post really does belong in here before clicking the send button.

There are numerous threads available for other topics, so please don't complain if you find your post has been deleted.

All the latest Model Output can be viewed on Netweather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Please continue :cold:

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Good snow set-up on the 12z run for Tuesday in N.England (both sides), the Midlands and also Wales.

Obviously a very cold run, if it came off then from Wednesday onwards much of northern England the CET zone will be getting ice days it seems, only slightly less cold further south as well!

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GME/DWD 12Z has certainly upgraded compared to the overnight run..

Now going with the ECMWF evolution with a full blown due easterly and a Scandi High at T+132..

SA :(

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This run is even snowier than the 6z for NE areas of England and Scotland! If the charts for Tuesday and Wednesday come off I'm sure there would be severe disruption, unlike yesterday they are working days. On Tuesday, however, there looks to be a band of snow straddling Northern England and North Wales, again if that comes off there could easily be 5-10cm west of the Pennines and 10-15cm of fresh snow to the east of them on Tuesday alone.

I'm not denying that it would be less snowy for other areas, but this run actually shows that same band getting into the South West on Tuesday night, and some heavy snow in the E and even SE on Wednesday, along with the NE of course. I suspect from Tuesday - Thursday this run would bring 10-15cm each day to parts of the NE and E Scotland, whilst E Anglia, the SE, the NW and Wales could reach 5-15cm by the end of Thursday.

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The 12z gfs seems quite keen on the idea of a scandi high at just +138

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Very big snowfall for SE/EA on this 12z run for Thursday-Friday with winds turning ENE/NE, probably the normal places that get hammered by such a flow would get a very big falls, wind direction looks similar to Dec 2005 but with a little more of an easterly tilt to it perhaps.

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Very big snowfall for SE/EA on this 12z run for Thursday-Friday with winds turning ENE/NE, probably the normal places that get hammered by such a flow would get a very big falls, wind direction looks similar to Dec 2005 but with a little more of an easterly tilt to it perhaps.

Yep, this chart shows plenty of PPN over Eastern and sometimes Central parts on Thursday into Friday

post-10203-12624491687013_thumb.png

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The 12z is one of the snowiest runs i have ever seen for the UK, those temperatures are insanely cold for the end of the week and it would be the coldest ive experienced for definate.

These runs just seem to keep getting better.

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After the easterly pressure drops over Scandinavia once again and we're at risk of repeating the pattern again. This is getting like a merry go round.

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Wonderful 12Z. Unleashing an unstable flow from the east at last. Greater potential for widespread snowfall. Scandi high developing nicely and with low pressure centered over the continent, we have a continuing draw of true cold. No hint of any marginality !

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The GFS 12z is THE best model run I have ever seen (and will ever see)

I dont see how (for snow country wide) it gets better than that

And it goes on and on into FI

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After the easterly pressure drops over Scandinavia once again and we're at risk of repeating the pattern again. This is getting like a merry go round.

Indeed and at +264 we start all over again!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1592.gif

At the moment the pattern is the complete reverse of what we're used to.

I agree with Joe the 12Z is probably the best GFS run i've ever seen.

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Ian, the evolution on the 12z is quite frankly exceptional, rather akin to the old legends...

FWIW the 12z is exactly what I have been thinking could happen as I was talking to TWS about on the last thread, though I have to admit I think thats a little progressive and perhaps a little OTT...still we shall see, hints from the models of a -ve NAO developing again, whether or not it'll be a slowly weakening easterly airflow, or a new blast from the north like the 12z, is hard to say...

ps, the 12z deep FI topples the high amazingly quickly, GFS very keen in the last few runs on that deep Atlantic low, though if the GFS was right at the start of the last cold spell, we should have been in a Bartlett set-up for a week already, hence why FI obviously best ignored for now past the 15th, conflicting trends for sure!

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I'm lost for words, Greeny high, Scandi high, Scandy high reload, I'm seriously losing it here! Lots and lots of 100% snow potental for ALL areas.

Of course the reality wont probably be as good but even so, I'm getting migranes now looking at all this fabulous charts :) .........As if things could not get any better, 12z pops up! :):)

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You almost run out of words to describe these runs, METO is equally fantastic, GFS a snow fest for some from start to finish and nobody really get left completely out.

Meto increases in instability at 144Z compared to the GFS, but equally makes something of the Tuesday/wed event for western parts. :)

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I'm lost for words, Greeny high, Scandi high, Greeny high reload, I'm seriously losing it here! Lots and lots of 100% snow potental for ALL areas.

Of course the reality wont probably be as good but even so, I'm getting migranes now looking at all these fabulous charts :) .........As if things could not get any better, 12z pops up! :):)

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The GFS 12z is THE best model run I have ever seen (and will ever see)

I dont see how (for snow country wide) it gets better than that

And it goes on and on into FI

Lets just say Joe if anyone can moan about this, they should just give it up right now!

Anyway a monster run, 15 day severe cold spell according to the GFS, something we've not really seen since the 80s...

Also, rather makes a change having to look at 300+ for a mild breakdown...only March 2006 can compare in terms of the long lasting synoptic reloads...and this time...we have a far colder Europe to work with as well as a much better time of the year.

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Roaring SW'lies by the very end of FI but even then the cold air looking very hard to shift, especially at the surface. Anyway, that's over a fortnight away, think I could live with that :)

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A GFS run that gives Plymouth the chance of heavy snow, within a timeframe of 86hrs is very rare; That

The reload in F1 needs to be taking with a crack of seasalt - the previous run had a South westerly at this stage, so things in F.I can swing around in a matter of hours, just lap up the charts to 126hrs, they are enough for me for the moment!

Paul

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At the risk of jinxing everything! the complete lack of downgrades is IMO down to the strength and certainty of Northern blocking now. Incredible charts, model after model, run after run, day after day. The 12z is a snowfest for all. The Scandi high is starting to become a regular visitor to FI and it won't be long (if it continues) that it will no longer be in FI.

I'm still not convinced we will get the BFTE quite in the way the charts are showing (although wouldn't it be amazing if we did!) I'm not sure if the MJO languishing a tad in phase 3 supports a block forming in quite the way it shows on most charts in a week's time but - I suppose there is plenty of time for it to get it's skates on and zip on a bit. I'm sure GP could put me straight on that though.

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You almost run out of words to describe these runs, METO is equally fantastic, GFS a snow fest for some from start to finish and nobody really get left completely out.

Meto increases in instability at 144Z compared to the GFS, but equally makes something of the Tuesday/wed event for western parts. :mellow:

Yes, nice little kink there. I've been watching that, especially on the Meto, for a couple of days. Looking good for the south then I'd say.

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quite stunningly scary,

post-4629-12624506135913_thumb.png

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