General Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

Interesting, the high to our northwest actually strengthens a touch between T+120 and T+144 - sensational chart again:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Interesting, the high to our northwest actually strengthens a touch between T+120 and T+144 - sensational chart again:

http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?01-0

Another amazing ECM output - great to see that long fetch easterly. And that is coming AFTER all the possible fun and games that start later this weekend!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

-12s covering some of the UK from the WMC

[TEITS]

Interesting, the high to our northwest actually strengthens a touch between T+120 and T+144 - sensational chart again:

I would imagine the snow showers would spread well inland on the +120/+144 ECM charts. Infact I would go as far to suggest possibly Wales/SW England. However for E Areas especially Humberside S would experience prolonged snowfalls.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

High Pressure with surface cold at 168

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

I seem to recall mentioning the 36 hour fax chart earlier... ITS IN -

S

Hi steve,

Sorry about the typos on the email I sent back.

More stunning 12z output, gfs 12z and ukmo 12z, bitterly cold arctic air plunging south by the start of next week and signs that the cold air will stay over the uk in the longer range with perhaps an E'ly <_<

[SMU]

Another amazing ECM output - great to see that long fetch easterly. And that is coming AFTER all the possible fun and games that start later this weekend!

Tamara + Paul-

calm yourselves before you click the 168 link-

-14's in the SE

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010010112/NSea_2010010112_thgt850_168.png

hey frosty- keep in mind those snow depths-

S

Edited January 1, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Duane S.]

I feel like a kid in a candy shop. The incredible charts keep coming and coming.

Even down here I think I can start looking towards the middle part of next week for a few showers at least. That said, and as somebody said earlier, it really will be a case of checking the radar now as as the instability increases so will the likelhood of snow cropping up just about anywhere!

[TEITS]

ECM going with my earlier post suggesting option 3. Note at +168 the snowfalls would continue into SE which is why I said this area would see the most prolonged snowfalls.

[PB22]

Tamara + Paul-

calm yourselves before you click the 168 link-

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?01-0

hey frosty- keep in mind those snow depths-

S

Record low temperatures next weekend perhaps?!

[phil nw.]

I would imagine the snow showers would spread well inland on the +120/+144 ECM charts. Infact I would go as far to suggest possibly Wales/SW England. However for E Areas especially Humberside S would experience prolonged snowfalls.

Yes Dave pretty much the best sypnotics for extensive snowfall.

[Geordiesnow]

Very good ecm run, okay it has the high toppling but it would still be cold and any snowcover any lucky people will recieve would certainly stick around.

Still a little disagreement, about the strength and how long it may last(i suspect on the UKMO, it would last longer than on the ecm/gfs runs) but the general idea is there for all too see.

[SMU]

ECM going with my earlier post suggesting option 3. Note at +168 the snowfalls would continue into SE which is why I said this area would see the most prolonged snowfalls.

48-60 hours on streamers

S

OMG 1987 @ 192

Make that 72 hours of snowfall in the SE

S

[PB22]

<_<

ECM T+192:

[TEITS]

48-60 hours on streamers

S

Im probably ramping too much but surely if the ECM verified then snow depths would exceed 30cm locally in E Anglia/SE I would expect.

Just add that if anyone thinks im ramping, back in Jan 1987 I will never forget how Peterborough had 48hrs of consistent heavy snow and this literally didn't stop for a second. I have seen photos from Kent of Jan 87 and the scenes reminded me of the lake effect snow that they experience around the Great Lakes of the US.

Fantastic charts this evening.

At +192 the snowfalls move N again!

[winter watcher]

Very good ecm run, okay it has the high toppling but it would still be cold and any snowcover any lucky people will recieve would certainly stick around.

Still a little disagreement, about the strength and how long it may last(i suspect on the UKMO, it would last longer than on the ecm/gfs runs) but the general idea is there for all too see.

Yes Geordie it looks like the high setting up for most off the uk but not for all for me on a personal note we could see a lot off snow in the se if the chart comes off all in all stunning output across the board today last night expected nothing looked out after midnight and we had light snow for around a hour and a light cover this morning.

[Bolton67]

Im probably ramping too much but surely if the ECM verified then snow depths would exceed 30cm locally in E Anglia/SE I would expect.

Just add that if anyone thinks im ramping, back in Jan 1987 I will never forget how Peterborough had 48hrs of consistent heavy snow and this literally didn't stop for a second. I have seen photos from Kent of Jan 87 and the scenes reminded me of the lake effect snow that they experience around the Great Lakes of the US.

Fantastic charts this evening.

At +192 the snowfalls move N again!

Looks like the Met O warning off 20cm could be a mistake

[chionomaniac]

There is certainly a case here of seeing synoptic nirvana in the reliable timeframe that we have never really seen in the internet age. I wonder how many places will have an ice week never mind ice days with these cold temperatures. I remember last year when there was a chart of the day thread whereupon a chart would be picked out of FI obscurity and put up as a dream chart. I don't think we saw any as good as these that have a plausable evolution in the reliable timeframe.

Can anyone find a mild chart where the temperature is above 10ºC?

[SMU]

96 hours of snowfall....... faint-

Im going out for a drive.... aiming for Buxton- enjoy the eve all

s

[Neilsouth]

96 hours of snowfall....... faint-

Im going out for a drive.... aiming for Buxton- enjoy the eve all

s

Lol Steve you sound like you just found the winning lottery ticket , we are all hopeing this plays out as it should...

Are there any concerns that it may not happen , what should we be looking at in the next few days for it to go to plan?

[cooling climate]

Happy new year everyone.

WOW just WOW the ECM run tonight. As if the t144,168 charts weren't good enough

along comes t192.

Heavy prolonged snow showers merging into longer periods of snow with strong maybe

gale force winds in the showers. Considerable drifting of the powder snow with maybe

whiteout conditions especially over exposed areas to the easterly winds.

[Geordiesnow]

Yes Geordie it looks like the high setting up for most off the uk but not for all for me on a personal note we could see a lot off snow in the se if the chart comes off all in all stunning output across the board today last night expected nothing looked out after midnight and we had light snow for around a hour and a light cover this morning.

Yep, ecm is a stunning run for you in particular. Not bad for me either, i suspect showers will start rolling just before the 96 hour mark and last until around 150 hour mark which is not too bad. And there is potential snow events before then and of course i got a good covering now so can't be too greedy. :lol:

192 hour chart looks great i have to say for those in the east and south east.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Speechless is a good word!

The ECM ensembles will be another big talking point this eveing once again i should think! What a contrast to the 12z ECM yesterday evening!!

[southbank]

Much better ECM 12 z after yesterday took the shine from some of the models that cold lovers were looking at . Much better placement of the high in the t168/ t192 part of the run from a IMBY point of view in London . If these come even close to verfiying than potentially next week could really hearald a spell of winter that most of us on here have spent chasing since the Internet age starting with BBC snow watch

Off topic but has anyone heard from an old poster atmospheric ? He was on BBC snowatch back in the days

[SMU]

Lol Steve you sound like you just found the winning lottery ticket , we are all hopeing this plays out as it should...

Are there any concerns that it may not happen , what should we be looking at in the next few days for it to go to plan?

ONLY if the upper high develops a little further SE- say 500 miles- we would miss the snow fest-

At this current range- the peripheries are the NE, the SE is the jackpot zone- KENT would be cut off.....-

Again I know I ramp stuff up- but they are all based on the charts- that is a 1/100 year snowfall for the SE & the south coast as well + intermittent EA & NE- ( by then the NE would be deep in snow anyway circa 20-40 cm ...)

ECM 240 still has snowfall in the SE probably breaking up then- although we probably wouldnt notice as the ground floor windows would be under the snow-

S

Edited January 1, 2010 by Steve Murr