Model Chat And Moods

[surrey slush]

I know Xmas is over, but the big box is under the tree, I just hope it's that BBC B and not the casio keyboard. As we're in an 80s mood

[Lowestoft]

Could one of the weather experts let me know what the chances are of the weather front that is supposed to give heavy snow on Friday, and now Saturday of next week across East Anglia and the South East being pushed further south and missing the UK completely?

Thanks in advance for your advice.

[fear sneachta]

Heh, that cut off low at T+216 on ECM goes east into the continent, and could bring snow to southern areas:

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?03-0

No real sign of any breakdown from ECM tonight.

Yes, this cold spell seems endless. As a snow lover normally, I never before thought cold weather could be so tedious. However now, I'm tired and bored of bitterly cold, irritatingly icy, snowless, dry weather and am now hoping for a return to mild Atlantic southwesterlies in the not too distant future!

[Matty M]

Classic downgrade on the 18z ala the 2000's, i did think we were past them times but im now getting the jitters.

Huge changes.

This thing has changed so utterly its evening worrying for southeast England.

Absolute disastrous run.

[Mark Bayley]

Certainly is disastrous!! Heavy snow showers for many eastern districts, some getting inland. This lasting till at least Friday. Tuesday has the potential for some widespread snowfall across much of the country with a front pushing south. Also shows a snow risk for Ireland even if it shorter than places further east and south!

The only downgrade i see is in the easterly flow at the end of the week! Still looking good before that though. There will be changes despite what the 18z shows!

Edited January 3, 2010 by mark bayley

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

North Easterly gets everyone in the Kent-Streamer and in the Wash-Streamer zones excited and ramping wildly which gives the impression of a widespread snow event which is not going to occur for the rest.

As long as the models continue with the North Easterly, as opposed to a direct Easterly, there will be no heavy snow worth mentioning IMBY - I won't believe any statements otherwise.

We must have an Easterly or we shall have to invade Kent and Cambridgeshire and steal all their snow...

Edited January 3, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[snowingtequila]

Classic downgrade on the 18z ala the 2000's, i did think we were past them times but im now getting the jitters.

Huge changes.

This thing has changed so utterly its evening worrying for southeast England.

Absolute disastrous run.

how very silly. maybe reference these huge changes

[kent]

Lets all hope that the 18z is completely drunk because if everything is further se surely that removes the threat of next weekends snow for areas further west.

[Richard Lake]

Morning first day back at work sucks oh well time for a sneaky post on NW whilst the boss isn't looking.

Its great that some of us can still remain in a positive mood this morning despite the fact that the easterly doesn't appear to be happening at all this week going by the latest BBC Weather forecast this morning which shows practically a Northerly with even talk of sleet. The presenter did end by saying cold for at least the next 10 days which is reassuring, but I failed to see much in the way of precipition between now and Wednesday (where the forecast ended on).

Sidenote; when did the expected Easterly suddenly disappear from the models. There was little or no talk of it before the 18z yesterday; or was it the 18z that put the nail in the coffin with a sudden downgrade?

Edited January 4, 2010 by rikki

[Totoro]

Sidenote; when did the expected Easterly suddenly disappear from the models. There was little or no talk of it before the 18z yesterday; or was it the 18z that put the nail in the coffin with a sudden downgrade?

It's only disappeared from the GFS output, ECM and UKMO still have it. Unfortunately some people seem to get overly depressed at poor output from one model.

[Ben_Cambs]

Its only one run from one model, I dont get why some people are so downbeat about it!

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Its only one run from one model, I dont get why some people are so downbeat about it!

It is strange the Euro models now see what the GFS was predicting (to a degree) a day or so ago and now the GFS has gone off the idea of an easterly and see's the LP much further down towards the med. Is the GFS higher resolution say 4-5 days out than the Euro models? - I think this is now 3 runs now (last nights 18z - todays 6z) which shows the easterly almost disappearing only effecting Kent briefly.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Timmy H

[Eugene]

LOL somebody on TWO is concerned over a January drought, ummmmmm its not like the UK is typically a cold/dry country is it so any prolonged cold dry spell should be enjoyed and i'm sure the summer will make up for it anyway, it has the last three summers

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I don't think anyone in Cumbria is particularly concerned about a drought next year.

[Neilsouth]

I don't think anyone in Cumbria is particularly concerned about a drought next year.

No shouldn't laugh , bad Neilsouth

[Stoxs]

Question to an expert!

If this event progged for tuesday/wednesday in the south comes off, why has this feature developed when it has had a track across land?

If someone could explain what is happening and charts to show what to look for it would be apreciated, i guess unstable air is the key but where is it from and what do you look for to see if these features will develope or diminsh

hope that makes sense

cheers stoxs

[keithlucky]

Can you plz explain how weatheronline gives snow for wales tues wednesday, what charts do they use they have been pretty accurate so far this winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

well peeps im happy great experience this winter so far i think milder wet windy weather is the picture all models back this id not expect nothing really cold for awhile yet always a possibility it will be back i reckon the end of jan.

but at the same time theres chance feb could be pretty mild,

but im not fussed got what i wanted this year very exciting stuff true great stuff not legendary but very good winter.

bring on the mild.:ph34r:

[grab my graupel]

Yeah, with a strong Polar Vortex currently parked over Greenland , it looks like any one hoping for another cold blast is going to be

disappointed. Of course, things can change very quicky, but as things stand, an Atlantic dominated period is looking very likely.

[PB22]

Yeah, with a strong Polar Vortex currently parked over Greenland , it looks like any one hoping for another cold blast is going to be

disappointed. Of course, things can change very quicky, but as things stand, an Alantic dominated period is looking very likely.

Hi Brian, hope you are well. Totally agree with your thoughts there. There was always a chance (and still is, albeit very small now) that the huge block to the east could bring some notable cold back into the UK, but with that polar vortex over Greenland I cannot see it happening. Still, no-one can grumble really after what has been an exceptional winter so far, and all good things have to come to an end sadly.

[grab my graupel]

Hi Brian, hope you are well. Totally agree with your thoughts there. There was always a chance (and still is, albeit very small now) that the huge block to the east could bring some notable cold back into the UK, but with that polar vortex over Greenland I cannot see it happening. Still, no-one can grumble really after what has been an exceptional winter so far, and all good things have to come to an end sadly.

Hi Paul, sorry I missed your reply :lol: I'm very well thank you, hope you are too

Indeed, It's a very familiar pattern that seems to be emerging at present, which, if it becomes established, may take some getting out of. As you say, though, the winter has been exceptional for many of us so far.I suppose the Atlantic has been

remarkably quiet this winter, so it was only a matter of time before it fired up again.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi Brian, hope you are well. Totally agree with your thoughts there. There was always a chance (and still is, albeit very small now) that the huge block to the east could bring some notable cold back into the UK, but with that polar vortex over Greenland I cannot see it happening. Still, no-one can grumble really after what has been an exceptional winter so far, and all good things have to come to an end sadly.

I agree. I can see the high hanging on there until the latter part of next week keeping some colder continental air going, but still not much below the seasonal average. Then the Atlantic should crash through late next week.

I'm not against mobile Atlantic weather if there's a strong emphasis on polar maritime air with sunny intervals and squally showers, but would be hard pressed to feel anything other than an inward groan at the possibility of mild dull damp south-westerlies, especially as I haven't seen any sunshine since the 9th January- a remarkable contrast considering that the first 9 days of January had sunshine on every day.

Chances of some sunshine in the east early next week though with high pressure ridging across from the continent.

[Ben_Cambs]

Hopefully the Polar Vortex gets displaced or splits up. At the moment were not going to get a big cold spell with it in its current positions, sat right over Greenland

[Southender]

Hi Shrimper

This is my own personal outlook based on a mixture of intense model evaluation, Global teleconnections & experience.

Fair do's. Let's hope you are correct. It does look like another memorable cold spell, could be upon us...

[yamkin]

Has someone upset Steve Murr on Netweather as he is not posting on here. He is posting elsewhere at the moment with great model info. Please come back Steve

Edited January 19, 2010 by yamkin