Model Chat And Moods

[Lowestoft]

On Tuesday and Wednesday the model watching people were telling us we were in for "The Day After Tomorrow" weather scenario. Now it looks like we are in for a few days of cold weather in January. They will be telling us next that we will be getting warmer weather in June.

[Tom D]

On Tuesday and Wednesday the model watching people were telling us we were in for "The Day After Tomorrow" weather scenario. Now it looks like we are in for a few days of cold weather in January. They will be telling us next that we will be getting warmer weather in June.

This may not be true for your area, but the UK as a whole is still experiencing below average temperatures and has been since the middle of December. The coming two weeks look to be further below average on a longer scale than we've seen for a long time. With such a deep cold everywhere in the country has a good chance of both snow AND prolonged cold.

Calling it 'a few days of cold' would be like saying hitting 40c next summer is 'just a bit of summer heat'.

[Hammer]

On Tuesday and Wednesday the model watching people were telling us we were in for "The Day After Tomorrow" weather scenario. Now it looks like we are in for a few days of cold weather in January. They will be telling us next that we will be getting warmer weather in June.

Quite ironic that your little part of the world is missing out on the fun. Whereas others are having wonderful crisp cold nights and days, snow showers. Heavier snow showers to come, no doubt bypassing you. Leaving you with just miserable, dull and boring weather. It is like there is a weather god.

Perhaps when you either get banned, or stop posting your continued digs at netweather and the great model threads and the posters within, you'll be rewarded.

What is great is others near you, aren't complaining but sharing useful info, but you think everyone wants to hear your dull updates and digs. Please find something else to do.

[Lowestoft]

Quite ironic that your little part of the world is missing out on the fun. Whereas others are having wonderful crisp cold nights and days, snow showers. Heavier snow showers to come, no doubt bypassing you. Leaving you with just miserable, dull and boring weather. It is like there is a weather god.

Perhaps when you either get banned, or stop posting your continued digs at netweather and the great model threads and the posters within, you'll be rewarded.

What is great is others near you, aren't complaining but sharing useful info, but you think everyone wants to hear your dull updates and digs. Please find something else to do.

The weather here isn't miserable and dull, it's beautiful. Clear blue skies with the bright sunshine shimmering off the North Sea, with those great big expansive North Suffolk skies things couldn't be better.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

never quite understood that one myself. Being Suffolk born and bred, I can't remember the skies down there being any bigger than the skies in Cumbria. They stretch from horizon to horizon everywhere I've ever been.

[If Wishes made Weather]

On Tuesday and Wednesday the model watching people were telling us we were in for "The Day After Tomorrow" weather scenario. Now it looks like we are in for a few days of cold weather in January. They will be telling us next that we will be getting warmer weather in June.

I guess it is a matter of expectation and experience which is, by defninition, always subjective. I was lucky enough to grow up in the Pennines in the 80's and have either lived and/or travelled to quite snowy and cold parts of the world. So I suppose that I, perhaps like you Lowestoft, are not going to impressed when we see the MetO etc speaking of 'heavy snow' being in the circa 5 - 10 cm range. I know that there have been endless discussions on here - whcih I have contributed to at times - about the vaguism of expressions used, but if heavy snow is forecast then I expect we are talking about the things that we see in photos in this country. People walking along snow drifts holding phone wires in their hands as if they are fence wire when in truth they are fixed to the top of high poles etc.

That said, I'm sure that we can speak at the moment of unusual weather. But that unusual (for here cold, frosty with some centimeters of snow cover under the big East Anglian sky) is therefore the Armageddon perceived in this film is, maybe not quite correct.

FYI Osbourne - I used to work with a chap who came from a farm near Howgill. He got a knock on the farm door one evening in one of the winters in the 60's (I guess the 61-62 winter). A van/lorry driver could not get any further up the raod as it was snowing and could he spend the night. No problem, he did. Next morning the problem was not digging the van out, it was that the van was not to be seen and consequently the driver stayed a few weeks with them.

Now I - like many on here - would like to experience this sort of thing - but even this, is not quite Day After Tomorrow, and as far as I can see, the sort of slow moving low pressure that will cause this sort of 24 hr + intense snowfall is not being hinted at by any model. What we have is some cold, which is what is needed before anything can fall as snow.

[snowingtequila]

On Tuesday and Wednesday the model watching people were telling us we were in for "The Day After Tomorrow" weather scenario. Now it looks like we are in for a few days of cold weather in January. They will be telling us next that we will be getting warmer weather in June.

the models were/are showing a cold spell, never a day after tomorrow scenario and I didn't read many comments saying this. This cold spell is more than few days of cold weather, the spell is already longer than most we receive. heavy snow is falling in parts of the country the temp has not been past 0 today. The cold is set to continue with snow likely on many areas at some point. If it weren't so slack there would be a lot of snow already. The models are showing synoptics I have not seen for many years and they aren't being that far out with their predictions,

[Lowestoft]

I guess it is a matter of expectation and experience which is, by defninition, always subjective. I was lucky enough to grow up in the Pennines in the 80's and have either lived and/or travelled to quite snowy and cold parts of the world. So I suppose that I, perhaps like you Lowestoft, are not going to impressed when we see the MetO etc speaking of 'heavy snow' being in the circa 5 - 10 cm range. I know that there have been endless discussions on here - whcih I have contributed to at times - about the vaguism of expressions used, but if heavy snow is forecast then I expect we are talking about the things that we see in photos in this country. People walking along snow drifts holding phone wires in their hands as if they are fence wire when in truth they are fixed to the top of high poles etc.

That said, I'm sure that we can speak at the moment of unusual weather. But that unusual (for here cold, frosty with some centimeters of snow cover under the big East Anglian sky) is therefore the Armageddon perceived in this film is, maybe not quite correct.

FYI Osbourne - I used to work with a chap who came from a farm near Howgill. He got a knock on the farm door one evening in one of the winters in the 60's (I guess the 61-62 winter). A van/lorry driver could not get any further up the raod as it was snowing and could he spend the night. No problem, he did. Next morning the problem was not digging the van out, it was that the van was not to be seen and consequently the driver stayed a few weeks with them.

Now I - like many on here - would like to experience this sort of thing - but even this, is not quite Day After Tomorrow, and as far as I can see, the sort of slow moving low pressure that will cause this sort of 24 hr + intense snowfall is not being hinted at by any model. What we have is some cold, which is what is needed before anything can fall as snow.

Thank you for a very well thought out and fascinating reply, much appreciated.

[Derp Patrol]

I don't think that some people appreciate the weather we are about to go through right now.. we are experiencing temperatures way below average, you have to remember that for many areas the average temps should be 5-9C during the day, and we are about to go through a phase of many days not even reaching 0C, which is not normal for the UK, at least my part. ♠

[BARRY]

I don't think that some people appreciate the weather we are about to go through right now.. we are experiencing temperatures way below average, you have to remember that for many areas the average temps should be 5-9C during the day, and we are about to go through a phase of many days not even reaching 0C, which is not normal for the UK, at least my part. ♠

You are totally correct my friend, there is an air of oh it will be alright, Well if we get the snow fall and temps which are progged in the 12z then this country will go into melt down, And it wont be alright a lot of people could die in this sort of weather, most people on this forum will not have experienced a winter like this.

Edited January 1, 2010 by BARRY

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The highest temperature over the past fortnight here has been 2.7C. I can't remember such a prolonged spell of cold weather and lying snow in my lifetime.

[Lowestoft]

I don't think that some people appreciate the weather we are about to go through right now.. we are experiencing temperatures way below average, you have to remember that for many areas the average temps should be 5-9C during the day, and we are about to go through a phase of many days not even reaching 0C, which is not normal for the UK, at least my part. ♠

See this is my problem, I really don't understand where you get these figures from. I read your post and then looked at the Met Office temperature forecasts for the next four days. Doing a very rough calculation on the back of an envelope I made the average daytime temperatures taking in all areas of England and Wales at about 3.8c. So could someone explain where the figure of less than 0c comes from.

[londonsnow]

See this is my problem, I really don't understand where you get these figures from. I read your post and then looked at the Met Office temperature forecasts for the next four days. Doing a very rough calculation on the back of an envelope I made the average daytime temperatures taking in all areas of England and Wales at about 3.8c. So could someone explain where the figure of less than 0c comes from.

met office/bbc forecasts tend to focus on urban areas, therefore milder than the rural areas, often significantly

[meerkat63]

met office/bbc forecasts tend to focus on urban areas, therefore milder than the rural areas, often significantly

Quite true - because they are the major population centres. Temperatures stated are also sea-level temps. I believe, which makes a huge difference.

The models have though been suggesting, very strongly, temperatures well below average - partularly overnight minima. Incidentally, the maximum temp. where I live today was a meagre 0.4c. - it is below freezing now of course and the projected cold spell has barely started.

[Tom D]

Oh my wow - I don't think the ECM could be more perfect for the south and east of the UK :lol:

[Ben_Cambs]

Speechless charts from ECM 12z, something we may not see again for years. But we will want agreement from the major 3 models; GFS, UKMO and ECM nearer to time, especially for the positioning of the high, the further west the better

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Cant see what all the fuss is about :unsure:

[Ben_Cambs]

Cant see what all the fuss is about :unsure:

I believe all areas of the UK will see snow at some stage, its just that Northern and Eastern areas appear to be in the firing line.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

its just that Northern and Eastern areas appear to be in the firing line.

You don't say :unsure:

[Bristawl Si]

Well, just seen the BBC News24 weather update and hardly a hint of snow over the weekend, other than a little part of N.E. england. What model predictions do the beeb use then? It seems strange to me when compared to the discussion that's developed in this thread over the last few hours.

[BristolBlizzard]

all i say if this comes off for sunday-monday the east /south east will stop!!

even snow for bristol on that chart ,, here in bristol last feb we done ok from e, ne, showers making it to us .so theres def hope

[tinybill]

i know this no gaps but this for Wednesday just stunning

[Duane S.]

I think a lot of people are quite simply missing the point. Too many people are being negative based only on recent history. I say that because I have yet to see any of these people offer up anything to back up their fears. Fair enough let's be pragamatic for sure but just saying 'calm down, it won't happen' etc is getting more than a little bit irritating to be honest.

As for that Low Pressure system the other day, it worked out very well for us thank you very much. It allowed the pattern that we have just entered to happen in the first place. IF it had also provided a heap of snow for a large swathe of the country to boot then that would just have been a bonus.

Yes maybe there is some excessive ramping going on here but the point is that these synoptics are extremely rare and quite frankly if you can't ramp this then when exactly can you.

[kent]

OK, my post above was a bit O/T but still very valid I think.

I await those perenial moaners to come up with some evidence to back up their fears. Oh, and 'it always happens' won't wash.

Very sensible post .The building blocks are in place and living in snowless Bournemouth and hoping for snow from this can i ask where do you post? The central south post is as barren as the weather so we can only look to the sw thread and se thread to second guess from the more knowledgable members whether possible snow in their areas might encroach into ours lol.

[snowblizzard]

Fantastic satellite imagery showing the extent of the blocking across Northern Atlantic

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?page=world