Model Chat And Moods

[smich]

I'm gonna vent my spleen.

No way would this post survive on the Model thread.

Gobsmacked. There are some idiots masquerading as model watchers freaking out at one single run that has just a few not quite as cold frames in it. There are downright flamers too - as I type, one predictable culprit has ventured that there "will be no cold spell". Atall?

The faxes are coming out and show us a cold spell coming. These are dismissed/ignored presumably because the 18z GFS is a much more recent and therefore informed solution...

Bewlox.

I'm fed up. What's it like on TWO? Are they more sensible over there?!

Rant over

smich

[Bobby]

Lol @ how you get one person saying "not as good a run this" and then you get 15 people screaming "oh for god's sake, it's only one run, everyone's sayng winter is over, get a grip people!".

People are probably terrified to comment now for fear of being lynched by the model-reaction police. Some people overeact but a lot more I think overeact at other people overeacting...

Ignore the knee jerk comments and just discuss the models, that's what the thread is for.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Barb-

[johnholmes]

well done the last two posters-I'm at the point of leaving NW model thread totally. A shame as I love the weather and discussing it but it is getting really quite ridiculous in there. Just how any newcomer or poster wanting to learn is expected to understand anything is hard to see.

The team have tried to encourage posting into the technical thread but that gets not much usage other than team members so its hard to know how to get a thread going which allows all of whatever knowledge to feel able and wanting to take part.

I'm not a mod or admin and may have this post removed as anyone else but I am sick tired and fed up with some of the, I use the term carefully, idiots in the model thread and then the regional ones when it gets really busy with the weather so many of us find interesting and enjoyable-namely snow and frost.

good night all.

[LomondSnowstorm]

well done the last two posters-I'm at the point of leaving NW model thread totally. A shame as I love the weather and discussing it but it is getting really quite ridiculous in there. Just how any newcomer or poster wanting to learn is expected to understand anything is hard to see.

The team have tried to encourage posting into the technical thread but that gets not much usage other than team members so its hard to know how to get a thread going which allows all of whatever knowledge to feel able and wanting to take part.

I'm not a mod or admin and may have this post removed as anyone else but I am sick tired and fed up with some of the, I use the term carefully, idiots in the model thread and then the regional ones when it gets really busy with the weather so many of us find interesting and enjoyable-namely snow and frost.

good night all.

Very sad post to read. I really do hope that my interjections have not come into the idiot category and I do try my best to be as balanced as I can and avoid knee-jerk reactions. I also hope very, very much that what you have said resonates with people, as I don't think losing JH from this forum would be the outcome that anyone wants to see.

LS

[SP1986]

Why do you think I stopped posting on the model thread for this cold spell..

1) Everyone model run is taken as gospel

2) Too much emphasis is put on timeframe past 72 hours

3) Too much panicking over nothing

4) Too much of authority stamping

5) If you don't think it's a settled cold outcome you get shot down in flames

6) It's assumed that everyone likes cold, unfortunately it's not true in everyone (and I say that on behalf of those who are not cold fans but are too intimidated to post due to potential backlashes), yet they are told not to worry because the outlook is good.

7) Wind ups are inevitable from mild fans who want to rouse cold fans.

Maybe a little OTT but you know more or less what I mean.

Conclusion, the model output thread can go from the best atmosphere to a not so impressive atmosphere when cold spells with any type of uncertainty are on the agenda.

ps John Holmes is not going to leave, it's reverse pshychology in order to get some order in the model thread, which I agree with, but threatening to leave won't change anything unfortunately.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very sad post to read. I really do hope that my interjections have not come into the idiot category and I do try my best to be as balanced as I can and avoid knee-jerk reactions. I also hope very, very much that what you have said resonates with people, as I don't think losing JH from this forum would be the outcome that anyone wants to see.

LS

I doubt you're one of the members in question!

Re. Stephen's post, the mild vs cold divide can get annoying if you aren't on the side of the prevailing view. Personally I'd like to see less in the way of value judgements in the model output thread. I don't think there's much wrong with the odd one here and there, but when they're used excessively they can grate on those with differing opinions and, even more importantly, make it hard for outsiders to understand what is meant by a "good" or "dreadful" run, particularly if there's very little description of what the models show other than the value judgement. And this goes as much for the "mild wind-up merchants" as the prevailing mass who prefer cold.

For those wanting to express a lot of value judgements about what is good and bad etc, that's precisely the kind of thing that the Model Moods thread is set up for, in which by all means, be as subjective as you like.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I would add on this point about reacting to people overreacting that there are some of us who, although we favour a cold outcome, will not hesititate to voice doubt over a cold spell if there really is sufficient reason to believe so. I did so last week for eg over the first suggested easterly. But getting in a tizz over each and every variation on a GFS output and examining every strand of notoriously fickle ensembles surely makes one a nervous wreck!

Also, if and when it does all go wrong, I fail to see what good is achieved by declaring winter is over, we are doomed and generally throwing a paddy about it. It is the weather, it can't be controlled. There are far worse things in life that genuinely might merit such a reaction. But not viewing a computer model output surely!?

Wrt to the subject of caution, there comes a time imo when you should take a judgement whether something is going to happen, or not. Yes, of course it isn't mandatory to do so of course - one can sit on the fence forever more and wait till t0 to see if it verifies if they want to - but somehow I don't see how any of us learn anything form that? To progress, one has to put their judgement to the test imo. Quite apart from the other fact that it also seems basically just an extremely dull thing to do and I fail to see what the fun there is in it. So too much preaching caution can be a tad irritating at times.

It doesn't matter a jot if that judgement turns out to be wrong, as long as you know it was based on sound enough factors that seemed relevant/pertinent at the time, then you can do no more than that. And the weather doesn't care anyway what you think - it will do what it wants regardless!

Edited February 5, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm going to use this thread properly today - downgrades this morning with the shortwave not far enough west! Surely shortwaves are going to be hard to place right up to about 48 hours out??

[Methuselah]

Why do you think I stopped posting on the model thread for this cold spell..

1) Everyone model run is taken as gospel

2) Too much emphasis is put on timeframe past 72 hours

3) Too much panicking over nothing

4) Too much of authority stamping

5) If you don't think it's a settled cold outcome you get shot down in flames

6) It's assumed that everyone likes cold, unfortunately it's not true in everyone (and I say that on behalf of those who are not cold fans but are too intimidated to post due to potential backlashes), yet they are told not to worry because the outlook is good.

7) Wind ups are inevitable from mild fans who want to rouse cold fans.

Maybe a little OTT but you know more or less what I mean.

Conclusion, the model output thread can go from the best atmosphere to a not so impressive atmosphere when cold spells with any type of uncertainty are on the agenda.

ps John Holmes is not going to leave, it's reverse pshychology in order to get some order in the model thread, which I agree with, but threatening to leave won't change anything unfortunately.

Pretty accurate summary IMI, Ste...

New thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61151-model-chat-and-moods/page__pid__1764985__st__0entry1764985