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Paul

Model Chat And Moods

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For more light hearted, chatty model related discussion, including all talk of upgrades and downgrades etc please use this thread.

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What's all the fuss about? tease.gif

Dont know, but the mood has dropped as low as the temps in scotland at the moment in these forums.

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06z is a cracker, looks like a December 2005 event is in order :(

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06z is a cracker, looks like a December 2005 event is in order :cc_confused:

I remember that event, but if only it was 3 days earlier it would of been a white Christmas!

post-10203-12620835728813_thumb.gif

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

That event though illustrates what even a three day north easterly can do for this region. I saw far far more snow from those superb 72 hours, 4 yrs ago, than the first leg of the pre xmas cold spell that lasted for at least a week put together

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Eastern Scotland can't keep hogging all the snow surely? We've had more snow in the last 10 days than in the entire last 4 winters put together!

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Since we've had two more snow showers this morning thought we'd take out our Norwegian Sledge (proper wooden one) and try it out! we've only had it for two years and not had good enough snow cover to use it but now I think conditions are now perfect!

Anyhow hope we can sustain cold enough temps to keep the snow cover and keep those showers coming! Future looks bright for a good many for snow soon.

Best wishes.

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Does anyone know where you can get up to date 850hpa readings?

I only ask, as for all 3 GFS runs today, the GFS Op run has been reading at -5oC hpa, whilst all other member have gone for around -2 to -3oC.

Thanks.

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Does anyone know where you can get up to date 850hpa readings?

I only ask, as for all 3 GFS runs today, the GFS Op run has been reading at -5oC hpa, whilst all other member have gone for around -2 to -3oC.

Thanks.

There you go mate,

Here is a link to the ECM 850hpa.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=0

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Cheers Paul.

Do you know where you can get observational readings for the 850's rather than T2M's?

I'd be very interested to see the verification of the Op run vs. all others. Seems quite a difference on the 00z, 06z and 12z of today, for todays weather.

BTW - Have you still got the rain :yahoo:

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If you PM Steve of John H they may be able to help Chris.

Actually the rain turned to sleet this afternoon here, but then stopped.

Just looked out the window and we now have moderate wet snow falling, temperature 1.3c and falling.

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Cheers Paul.

Looking potentially sleety here, but it could just be the rain getting heavier and my eyes playing tricks :crazy:

Forecasts look quite interesting for tonight/tomrrow am though - fingers crossed.

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well i been reading the model link ,cant see wot all the fuss about our local girl BBC weather girl didn,t seem to worried to-night for us so called in the firring line later in the week!!

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In desperate need of some snow here like last february :yahoo:

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In desperate need of some snow here like last february help.gif

If the latest model output verifies then last february's weather should be totally eclipsed cold.gifcold.gifcold.gif

It has been already, for my location anyway - best winter in years so far smile.gif

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Because of the latest models, I can see counties in the far south of England which again are below the M4 corridor getting at times milder conditions because of the current positioning of the LP, and dew points would be too high for snow. If it gets positioned about 60-80 miles further south than basicallly everywhere in the UK will remain cold throughout the cold spell.

Bags of potential from Friday onwards for Eastern counties of England, heavy and maybe quite frequent snow showers, and next Wednesday the potential for a more widespread event for Wales, Central Eastern and Southern England. Further North this weekend most likely Heavy Snow showers in Eastern Scotland and North East England for most of the weekend, which could give a good covering. There will be severe frosts into next week too.

The 06z GFS run was a mild outlier compared to previous runs, and wasnt a 'downgrade' as there is still cold conditions across most of the UK. The 12z run will either back away from 06z or back up 06z. The most likely outcome is that it will back away from 06z because it was a big outlier compared to previous runs and the other big models such as ECM and UKMO

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Personally, introducing an IMBY element I would like to see those lows stay south allowing that cold NE flow to come in as shown by UKMO and ECM. For both Cleadon and Norwich (where I will be returning around 5 January) it would mean days on end of sunshine and snow showers, which from my perspective is bliss.

However I acknowledge that many of those in sheltered western parts would probably see just the odd flurry if that happened, hence the excitement over possible frontal snow pushing into the south at the expense of increased marginality and fewer showers for eastern areas to the north.

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My IMBY point of view is that the cold doesn't seem to be reaching these parts. Currently 4.1c, and according to BBC 3-4c on Friday.

Yesterday it was maxes of 1-2c for Friday.

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Gobsmacking charts all around today. Great runs with no end in sight for the cold at all. :rofl: Im not 100% sure on this but towards the end of next week there could be heavy and frequent snow showers for Northern and Eastern Britain?

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In my personal view, I'm becoming more and more tired of this cold spell as time passes, it was alright for the first 2 weeks but for me it's novelty has worn off around Christmas. I personally want to see some variations in the weather even if that includes blowtorch Atlantic.

I'm glad everyone else is enjoying it though, long term cold just isn't for me, and these model runs compound my misery.

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In my personal view, I'm becoming more and more tired of this cold spell as time passes, it was alright for the first 2 weeks but for me it's novelty has worn off around Christmas. I personally want to see some variations in the weather even if that includes blowtorch Atlantic.

I'm glad everyone else is enjoying it though, long term cold just isn't for me, and these model runs compound my misery.

Hence the Greek flag? liking the heat? - looks like you've possibly got a few months of glumness to contend with! (fingers crossed). :drunk::cold:

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