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Ed Stone

Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

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casparjack I know the feeling. I find it difficult to find a thread that follows our County. Some call it the Herefordshire Bowl others a Plane. I have been known to copy post to three to see the consensus.

As far as this period is concerned Metcheck have down graded to sleet for Tuesday, but they did that last week and I got a good hard festive covering on Wed.

p.s. the Midland lot have been trying to annex us for decades, but I tend to a. listen to BBC Glos., and b. our weather streams in from the SW, so you can see where I'm coming from.pardon.gif

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Living in Cwmbran, I think I'm going to see some fun and games later on tonight....hopefully snow lasting about 48 hours...a foot or two will do...at least the models have now sorted themselves out. All this chopping and changing has been eating into my finger nail storage...

good luck for everyone tonight and the rest of the week.

Bullworker from Cwmbran 100m asl ( S E Wales ) 5 miles east of Nwport, Torfaen.

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Well im spuprised that looking at the BBC forecast for my area and they have heavy snow for here at times. Looking foward to tonight to see what happens!

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I am still hoping this front stalls over us, to far north snow will turn to rain ,we hope it stays put then we have snow like the 1980s.If it does move further north rain will eventually turn back to snow. If it stays smack on m4 you looking at 3 days of snow rather than 3hrs thursday.

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Hi Guys,

I can remember back in the 80's a front coming in and Bill Giles forecasting rain - he was right - but the front then stalled and came back south and I was off school for several days as it turned to snow with a bitter easterly setting in as it came south. Snow amounts were huge, and similar to these charts, the freeze then set in for several days so no thaw, only more snow and extrememly cold temperatures stayed.

I am not saying this is the same, but we have a similar scenario which is proving a nightmare for the forecasters!

Fingers crossed,

JK

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Well im spuprised that looking at the BBC forecast for my area and they have heavy snow for here at times. Looking foward to tonight to see what happens!

Aye, it looks "on" as it were to an extent. We don't do that well here do we? I'm counting on the Vale to protect us from the warm air. It's properly cold out there this morning. As harsh a frost as in the cold snap. Hopefully it won't warm too much. The ground is solid.

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Aye, it looks "on" as it were to an extent. We don't do that well here do we? I'm counting on the Vale to protect us from the warm air. It's properly cold out there this morning. As harsh a frost as in the cold snap. Hopefully it won't warm too much. The ground is solid.

Tempertures plumited to -4.8c here last night.

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Aye, it looks "on" as it were to an extent. We don't do that well here do we? I'm counting on the Vale to protect us from the warm air. It's properly cold out there this morning. As harsh a frost as in the cold snap. Hopefully it won't warm too much. The ground is solid.

Nope we don't normally do to well, but i hope this time we do for a change! Its 4C here now and will prob rise a bit more, but im not to worried as its not ment to start till late tonight/early tomorrow morning so it should (fingers crossed) be cold enough for snow from the word go by then! How much do you think we will get then?

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when will we know for certain about the snow , i live in blackwood south wales i have no finger nails left from this we will we wont its killing! when does the met office update their alerts? its ike waiting for santa to come!

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Nope we don't normally do to well, but i hope this time we do for a change! Its 4C here now and will prob rise a bit more, but im not to worried as its not ment to start till late tonight/early tomorrow morning so it should (fingers crossed) be cold enough for snow from the word go by then! How much do you think we will get then?

We got to see temps bye dawn tommorow hopefully a strong easterely blowing.

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Nope we don't normally do to well, but i hope this time we do for a change! Its 4C here now and will prob rise a bit more, but im not to worried as its not ment to start till late tonight/early tomorrow morning so it should (fingers crossed) be cold enough for snow from the word go by then! How much do you think we will get then?

Absolutely no idea. I suspect the timing of the front is good. Temps will be low by 11. Depends on how cold the air is I guess. This is a nowcasting event. No-one's gonna know till it happens. What I do suspect is we might get hit but a difference of miles (Maesteg even Sarn) is gonna make a huge difference.

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it should start around 11pm tonight ive a eeling its going to be rain from the latest forecast on the beeb what use is heavy snow all day tuesday then rain wensday?

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Absolutely no idea. I suspect the timing of the front is good. Temps will be low by 11. Depends on how cold the air is I guess. This is a nowcasting event. No-one's gonna know till it happens. What I do suspect is we might get hit but a difference of miles (Maesteg even Sarn) is gonna make a huge difference.

Well i live in brackla, about 8 miles inland and despite its not that far inland and im not that high up, for some reason we seem to do ok a lot of the time and end up with snow at some point, I just hope there is some sort of covering by morning, but i dunno why, i just feel fairly confident this time its going to be good! But thats prob just cause i want this snow so much as its been soooooo long since we last had a good snow fall!

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it should start around 11pm tonight ive a eeling its going to be rain from the latest forecast on the beeb what use is heavy snow all day tuesday then rain wensday?

According to welsh radar on met around 6am the heavy precipation,hopefully later than that because we want to see signs of the front struggling to make northerly progression .

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Well i live in brackla, about 8 miles inland and despite its not that far inland and im not that high up, for some reason we seem to do ok a lot of the time and end up with snow at some point, I just hope there is some sort of covering by morning, but i dunno why, i just feel fairly confident this time its going to be good! But thats prob just cause i want this snow so much as its been soooooo long since we last had a good snow fall!

I agree. Brackla always does well. I think you might be in for it!

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it should start around 11pm tonight ive a eeling its going to be rain from the latest forecast on the beeb what use is heavy snow all day tuesday then rain wensday?

Still isn't 1 day of snow better than nothing?? still i get what you mean, it would be nice for it to last, and some times when it snows like that one day, it continues into the next day, and the snow would help keep temps down wouldn't it?

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Still isn't 1 day of snow better than nothing?? still i get what you mean, it would be nice for it to last, and some times when it snows like that one day, it continues into the next day, and the snow would help keep temps down wouldn't it?

Yes that's similar to February 8th and 9th 2007, People ramp on about that yes it was a nice snowfall but i dont rate it against most snowfalls simply because it dissapeard by the 11th

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Yes that's similar to February 8th and 9th 2007, People ramp on about that yes it was a nice snowfall but i dont rate it against most snowfalls simply because it dissapeard by the 11th

Well we will just have to wait and see how things go today, hopfully the front will stall and we will get a good amout of snow. I wouldn't always go with the forecasts as in recent years when we have been forecast heavy rain we have actally had snow, so just got to see what happens as we go through today.

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Nice frosty and sunny start, first thing I did this morning was to watch the BBC forecast, andthey sno to low ground in Wales.

BBC Ceefax Maps showed Snow on hills for Wales tonight, with 3 summary showing Snow for South Wales.

Glad I did that as it really clears it up. Looking at the models UKMO further north than yesterday, NAE 00Hz further south than the 18Hz with the lows staying in the channel, There is so little model agreement as to make this a forecasters nightmare.

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Bydd e'n ddiddorol gweld rhagolygon yr wythnos gyda John holmes heddiw

It will be intresting seeing the forecast for the week with John holmes today.

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Hi Guys,

Bad news i am afraid - on the general model discussion - Steve Murr, has stated that this is only a north wales etc event northwards - we in the mid and south are going to get rain from the latest updates.

This is not something we want to hear and he also states we are going to have to wait until friday and even then, only if this low goes towards the south east later in the week.

This is not good news and not what I wanted to hear. Hope for another change later but this low is now nearly upon us and our only chance is if it stalls and gets little northward progression. Heres hoping!

JK

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Hi Guys,

Bad news i am afraid - on the general model discussion - Steve Murr, has stated that this is only a north wales etc event northwards - we in the mid and south are going to get rain from the latest updates.

This is not something we want to hear and he also states we are going to have to wait until friday and even then, only if this low goes towards the south east later in the week.

This is not good news and not what I wanted to hear. Hope for another change later but this low is now nearly upon us and our only chance is if it stalls and gets little northward progression. Heres hoping!

JK

Lol we will see what the METO update says.

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