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Anyone picking up any 'noise' on why the GFS is seemingly performing the way it is at the moment? What are they saying across the pond for instance?

(It might be right of course, but it's the synoptics which just seem too damned weird to make sense.)

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Anyone picking up any 'noise' on why the GFS is seemingly performing the way it is at the moment? What are they saying across the pond for instance?

(It might be right of course, but it's the synoptics which just seem too damned weird to make sense.)

Will be interesting to see what the 18z shows.

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I think its more coincidence more than anything else SnowLover 2009. Its easy to sum up a decade as time passes. The 90s - hot summers and drought and average sometimes mild winters. The 00s less hot summers and generaly less mild winters with slight-close-to-call winter synoptics.

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decades usually change. like the last 2 decades have been milder, the 70s and 60s were cold for winters. we are heading into a new decade, could we be expecting a different type of uk winters> already this winter is showing hints imo.

A bit off topic I know, but that is very true.

1900's: Average, snowier start + end with a mild middle.

1910's: Average, a variety of winters with 16/17 a severe winter.

1920's: Average, mild winters with a few snowy ones mixed in.

1930's: Average, but a run of snowy winters towards the end.

1940's: Average-mild, lots of rubbish winters, except of course 46/47.

1950's: Snowy, but not very snowy.

1960's: Snowy.

1970's: Mild, except towards the end.

1980's: Snowy, lots of cold winters but a mild end.

1990's: Mild, 1991 and 1996 the exception.

2000's: Mild.

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A bit off topic I know, but that is very true.

1900's: Average, snowier start + end with a mild middle.

1910's: Average, a variety of winters with 16/17 a severe winter.

1920's: Average, mild winters with a few snowy ones mixed in.

1930's: Average, but a run of snowy winters towards the end.

1940's: Average-mild, lots of rubbish winters, except of course 46/47.

1950's: Snowy, but not very snowy.

1960's: Snowy.

1970's: Mild, except towards the end.

1980's: Snowy, lots of cold winters but a mild end.

1990's: Mild, 1991 and 1996 the exception.

2000's: Mild.

No offense but that list is way of the mark!

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With regards to theGFS we have been here before, when we have unusual synoptics the GFS defaults to mild swesterlies :cold:

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No offense but that list is way of the mark!

Couldn't agree more

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Anyone picking up any 'noise' on why the GFS is seemingly performing the way it is at the moment? What are they saying across the pond for instance?

(It might be right of course, but it's the synoptics which just seem too damned weird to make sense.)

Not sure why it has behaved so terribly,the last cold spell(yes i know its still going on in Arctic Scotlandpardon.gif ) it picked it up very well and didn't falter at all.

This time its been a joke, a traversty, and a complete load of bull,with its credibility nearly in ruins, only a good 18z run can save it now.The new big 3 models will be GEM ECM and METO with gfs relegated as an also-ran with its credibility so low it will never be able to recover.nonono.gif

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agree the 70s were colder than the 60s were they not, minus 63?

Nope

People forget the winters of 1970-71 to 1975-76 were not noted for prolonged cold spells. 1974-75 was one of the mildest winters on record.

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agree the 70s were colder than the 60s were they not, minus 63?

No the 70s were much milder than the 60s. The 60s had it's snowier spells but was mostly cool due to the Decembers. The 40s was the most severe decade. The 80s was the snowiest and the 90s mildest. The 50s were frosty.

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3 new fax`s issued so far,here`s the 2nd one as a snapshot for Weds.00z

fax60s.gif

At this time the -4c 850`s across the midlands.

The front will approach the sw late tomorrow and appears to become slow moving for around 48hrs,wavering around the M4 corridor.

This is a difficult snow forecast until the last few hrs. i think,with the marginal temps.dewpoints and indeed percipitation amounts.

I would have to say though that a narrow band could get several cms. from this,based on similar sypnotics i have seen in the past.

As the front moves back south towards Thurs i would think areas south of the Thames valley could well see snow as the colder uppers undercut.

This will be something to follow from now on by viewing media updated forecasts ,fax`s,radar and of course by posters onNetWeather.

I must admit in view of my location i am just starting to get a little interested.smile.gif

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FWIW 60s were generally the coldest of the 20th century, the 40s had some very cold winters as well in there...the 80s obviously weren't bad though they tended to come in cold months rather then cold winters...

Anyway the 12z GFS is fine, as long as we get a cold shot then some sort of high pressure/ridge forms to our NE the worst we can do is a cold SE airflow, the best obviously a full blown blast from the east/the big battleground set-up.

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Not sure why it has behaved so terribly,the last cold spell(yes i know its still going on in Arctic Scotlandpardon.gif ) it picked it up very well and didn't falter at all.

This time its been a joke, a traversty, and a complete load of bull,with its credibility nearly in ruins, only a good 18z run can save it now.The new big 3 models will be GEM ECM and METO with gfs relegated as an also-ran with its credibility so low it will never be able to recover.nonono.gif

The 18z is going to have to be a complete u turn for it to gain any credibility and i cant see this happening in one run

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Looks like a very wet Fax chart for my area, places further north could have a rather interesting set-up, the models more and more are bringing western parts of East Anglia into play. The fax charts once again suggests to me flooding is a very real threat in this set-up for some regions in the south.

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its been agood year for volcanic activity plus two years of solar activity.

but it could be the second year winter has thrown up a suprise the models all except 1 have been showing a trend whether this trend can hold is another story but at the moment the ukmo and ecm gem have thrown us into some good wintry stuff.

now its detail eyes down peeps we got another 24 to 36 hours yet to see what the outputs will bring us im hoping prolonged but its not nailed infact it never is but it would be good see the general outcome intresting exciting fantastic if things ring true.

remember the weather is unpredictable so tomorrow could be not so good lets wait and see:drinks:

but so far very good.

ecm gem being the models thaT im most excited about.:cold:

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3 new fax`s issued so far,here`s the 2nd one as a snapshot for Weds.00z

fax60s.gif

At this time the -4c 850`s across the midlands.

The front will approach the sw late tomorrow and appears to become slow moving for around 48hrs,wavering around the M4 corridor.

This is a difficult snow forecast until the last few hrs. i think,with the marginal temps.dewpoints and indeed percipitation amounts.

I would have to say though that a narrow band could get several cms. from this,based on similar sypnotics i have seen in the past.

As the front moves back south towards Thurs i would think areas south of the Thames valley could well see snow as the colder uppers undercut.

This will be something to follow from now on by viewing media updated forecasts ,fax`s,radar and of course by posters onNetWeather.

I must admit in view of my location i am just starting to get a little interested.smile.gif

I don't know what is more concerning , will it be Snow/rain or will it even get to our area. The ECM and the UKMO both have it reaching the East Midlands. But I know from the past that sometimes the front can stall up to 40 miles South of where it has been predicted .

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Although the GFS has gone off on a tanjent i think we could cut it some slack as it picked up the last cold spell up a good week before it came into fruitition, before the other models picked up on it and has now picked this upcoming cold spell before the rest so it seems to have a nack for picking out an upcoming pattern but its just abit too progressive to bring the breakdowns in.

Anyhows i must say tonights charts are amazing and we could be on the verge of something very special but of course we'll have to wait and see how it pans out.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Taking those faxes into consideration for the time frame shown, then there is still a huge rain/snow error over a small part of countryside. Plus you have to factor into the undeniable trend for the whole shooting match to be shunted in micro chips ever that bit further south. I think for eg my region in the south eastern corner, irrespective of even the sexy ECM tonight - will start off with rain. However, what is more important for me and the rest of Blighty is the fact that the proposed set-up afterwards is increasingly coming to a consensus of a something akin to an old fashioned freeze for most if not hopefully all of us.

I will take my nun vows if this is not the case (no disrespect for existing nuns because I am sure they are also following the models and gunning the cold on!laugh.gif )

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Not sure why it has behaved so terribly,the last cold spell(yes i know its still going on in Arctic Scotlandpardon.gif ) it picked it up very well and didn't falter at all.

This time its been a joke, a traversty, and a complete load of bull,with its credibility nearly in ruins, only a good 18z run can save it now.The new big 3 models will be GEM ECM and METO with gfs relegated as an also-ran with its credibility so low it will never be able to recover.nonono.gif

A certain other poster wrote the GFS off altogether, albeit in totally different circumstances, and look what happened to him! His credibility appears to have been wrecked, which is a bit of a shame as he is usually a rather good analyst of the models. Anyway, the ECM looks very impressive, with a fairly prolonged and very intense cold spell if it verified. Easterly convection showers look like being the main source of precipitation for Scotland, while further south all eyes are on the northern extent of the front, with those further south hoping it doesn't get too far north of the famous 'M4 corridor', to allow the cold air to get further south and the precipitation to be wintry. After that front passes, the outlook is uncertain, with the UKMO bringing in an easterly, while the ECM brings in a northerly with a shortwave hitting Scotland at +144. The GFS brings a northeasterly flow, with uppers around -10 in Northeast Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

All of them look good for an IMBY perspective, though the situation is far more marginal further south, more particularly before Hogmanay.

LS

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We may have been here before but the difference from previous winters is that we have come out of a long cold spell down south with variable amounts of snow and up in the north it hasnt really turned milder at all so this may be a different winter this year with northern blocking more prevalent and the northern arm of the jet 'on the flop' as you could euphemistically call it smile.gif

so maybe the factors that need things to turn in our favour are far more prevalent this season than in previous ones. Yes it can still go wrong but the chances on things going very well this time are much better this year so if you do see a armageddon run like the ECM then its worth taking it seriously and being cautiously optimistic

for me I dont expect anything really interesting in my area till thursday/friday at least bar a few colder nights, up north though a very different story and could well be down here if things keep evolving in our favour. I think the met office seem to be sceptical of the GFS right now, be nice to see it coming in to line, were some hints on the 12z, the FI evolution was significantly better for what its worth

maybe time for people to ignore the models for a while and just watch the forecasts and see what develops

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A certain other poster wrote the GFS off altogether, albeit in totally different circumstances, and look what happened to him! His credibility appears to have been wrecked, which is a bit of a shame as he is usually a rather good analyst of the models. Anyway, the ECM looks very impressive, with a fairly prolonged and very intense cold spell if it verified. Easterly convection showers look like being the main source of precipitation for Scotland, while further south all eyes are on the northern extent of the front, with those further south hoping it doesn't get too far north of the famous 'M4 corridor', to allow the cold air to get further south and the precipitation to be wintry. After that front passes, the outlook is uncertain, with the UKMO bringing in an easterly, while the ECM brings in a northerly with a shortwave hitting Scotland at +144. The GFS brings a northeasterly flow, with uppers around -10 in Northeast Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

All of them look good for an IMBY perspective, though the situation is far more marginal further south, more particularly before Hogmanay.

LS

I'm intrigued here which circumstance would this be? don't be such a tease! as for the gfs it's going through a bad patch at the moment, we often see the models struggle with these types of set ups.

In terms of tonights ecm ensembles the operational run is well supported upto next Saturday after this its one of the colder options but still supported by the control run. Quite amazingly not a single ensemble member and we're talking 50 here have anything higher than about 5c for the next ten days and thats for one day. I've never seen such cold ensemble members for the Netherlands before.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

I should also mention here that for the early stages of the track of the first low the ecm operational run is at the top end of members suggesting that quite a few bring it further south and hence the slightly colder temps to our east, but with the caveat here that the ecm is primarily a 72hrs and onwards model and was specifically designed for that purpose.

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