Cold Spell Discussion

[da_bish]

Thames freezing over was helped a great deal by the number and type of bridge(s) that crossed the Thames back then.

[Optimus Prime]

Joe Bastar*i has a new post on his blog;

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Take note - He's got it spot on so far!

Ok well the stupid swear filter has kicked in. Let me post his blog;

LOOK OUT ENGLAND, A BAD MOONS A RISING.

POTENTIAL CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND!

Remember, the issuance of major cold was for Jan 1-10 so this is day 2. Judging by some of my email, people dont understand that Jan 1-10 is not Dec 30. Another unfortunate announcement, I cant answer all email.

But there are some big ticket items showing up including the threat of the biggest snows in england in years later next week ( jan 7-12) as major cold is entrenched in much of Europe north of the Alps and west of Italy by Tuesday. Low pressure should develop west of Italy Tuesday and drift northeast, then pull north. This the center of the storm coming up into Germany and the major northeast flow that develops surface to 15,000 ft over England sets the stage for a major nationwide winter event for later next week. The cold is major enough, but the threat of snows for much of northwest Europe all the way into France the next 10 days are such that this really could be sticking out like a frozen soar thumb. The slow movement west and deep easterly flow means a 3-5 day event that could tax englands ability to combat winter weather. Its as ugly as I have seen a set up as the Scandinavian high sets up west east to the north and keeps cold air flowing westward with the cyclonic disturbance turning west under England. It will be interesting to see what other private sources ( Piers Corbyn, the The Weather Outlook) are saying here and as one who wants people as up on things as possible, I would recomend seeing their opinions. This column is not meant to go for individual weather events, but this kind of event could be the winter storm of a life time for alot of northwest Europe I would rather be perfect on any idea, but if I have to be wrong, I would rather be overdone on this because I am nervous about the complacency over the years as far as the threat of the kind of winter weather that was common years many many years ago, and may become more common in the near future.

The storm will start in France first as arctic air spreads back southwest tom night and Monday and the upper feature moves east first through Spain. Its a wild set up

In the meantime keep warm! Southeast europe, from the balkans southeast are overall mild in this pattern as I emphasized in the issuances this is a big 3 industrial area of the world, far east, the plains east on the US and northern and eastern Europe that is in the tank.

It could be interesting for the dairy farmers out there. I mean what do you do when its so cold your cows are giving ice cream instead of milk (lol)?

I hope the energy people in europe understand what they are dealing with this winter.

ciao for now ****

Edited January 2, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[kent]

You cant blame people for being pessimistic, It may turn out to be a memorable winter regarding low temperatures and longevity of cold, but without snow it will not be remembered as a severe winter. Thats just the way it is. Here on the central south coast it will always be marginal as per usual regarding the snow and could so easily be dismissed as another crap winter.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Unbelievably, he is actually vaguely accurate for once, with all his endless cold ramping. Now he is just taking the ramping to the extreme.

[disco-barry]

Are there any satellite pictures of the UK from today or previous days? Would be interesting to see the snow cover from space!

[kent]

Joe B on sw forum suggesting a crippling snowstorm for south and mid England within a week.

[tinybill]

Indeed and at +264 we start all over again!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1592.gif

At the moment the pattern is the complete reverse of what we're used to.

I agree with Joe the 12Z is probably the best GFS run i've ever seen.

i know its off topic bbc news 24 weather is saying the east can expect 20 cm by tuesday

[The PIT]

Joe B on sw forum suggesting a crippling snowstorm for south and mid England within a week.

Forget what he says he talks rubbish and is just striking lucky for once.

Looking at netweather radar and temps displayed seem a little high???

Edited January 2, 2010 by The PIT

[Bartlett Low]

You cant blame people for being pessimistic, It may turn out to be a memorable winter regarding low temperatures and longevity of cold, but without snow it will not be remembered as a severe winter. Thats just the way it is. Here on the central south coast it will always be marginal as per usual regarding the snow and could so easily be dismissed as another crap winter.

You will get your snow, kent. You always do. Kent is a great place to live weatherwise, nice warm summers and potentially cold winter snow events. A couple of nice beaches too!

Personally speaking, so far this winter we have had more snow here than the last ten years combined, so, regardless of what happens from here in, this winter will certainly be remembered by me.

[kent]

You will get your snow, kent. You always do. Kent is a great place to live weatherwise, nice warm summers and potentially cold winter snow events. A couple of nice beaches too!

Personally speaking, so far this winter we have had more snow here than the last ten years combined, so, regardless of what happens from here in, this winter will certainly be remembered by me.

Thank you for your reply, my post may have been misleading, I live in Poole Dorset. Sorry for any misunderstanding, I sincerely hope that we are as lucky as others.

[Neilsouth]

You will get your snow, kent. You always do. Kent is a great place to live weatherwise, nice warm summers and potentially cold winter snow events. A couple of nice beaches too!

Personally speaking, so far this winter we have had more snow here than the last ten years combined, so, regardless of what happens from here in, this winter will certainly be remembered by me.

Wrong no we don't , that's why we have such things as... Thames Streamers , Kent Streamers or East Kent Streamers because each one of these tells us if someone is going to get snow or not. I didn't get a flake of snow in feb 2009 yet parts of london got blasted

[mountain shadow]

Has anyone else noticed the big difference between the GFS ppn charts and the BBC weather forecasts?

For Monday night into Tuesday morning, the GFS has consistently shown a decent band of snow moving south, the BBC charts show, well pretty much nothing?

Makes for a confusing situation.

[Iceni]

OOI I've just checked up on the MetO's Today's warnings… every region in the UK has an orange alert (although there are a few counties within them still green). I don't recall ever seeing that before.

A very special period weather-wise.

[Winter Monsoon]

OOI I've just checked up on the MetO's Today's warnings… every region in the UK has an orange alert (although there are a few counties within them still green). I don't recall ever seeing that before.

A very special period weather-wise.

I Take it thats the cold plunge then. The warnings are mainly for Icey roads. Sorry for off topic

[Just Below Zero]

Can any one learned enough explin to me why the cloud associated with the LP to our south west appears to be mot only moving NW as one would expect but at a midway point appears to track SE against the wind flow.

I saw it earlier but lt seems more pronounced as it pushes up towards the BI.

See Sat 24

/www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

jbz

[If Wishes made Weather]

So I suppose the question – particularly for those commuting into London next week – is do we buy a weekly ticket, or, will there be enough weather disruption to make it more cost effective to buy the daily ticket. Depending on the commute you need three days travel or more to make the weekly ticket the better option.

I’ll keep a look at the models today, but I’m guessing that transport will be OK and its the weekly ticket.

[paul tall]

Speaking as a resident of NE England, the snow cover is now becoming very tedious, as it's constantly disrupting travel plans and making getting around very inconvenient, especially for those who rely on public transport. The slightest excuse and the buses are off. This is our 17th consecutive day with snow lying at 0900hrs already this winter.

I make it 18. We had a dusting on the morning of 17th, and as it covered all the ground albeit super thinly, it counted for me. Did you not have a dusting in Ferryhill that day?

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index = 10 x [(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with lying snow at 9am)+(number of days with minima of 0C or less)] divided by the mean winter maximum

Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09

1978-79: 262

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2009-10: 66 up to 2nd January

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

[Rustynailer]

I am sure that the BBC country file sorry tracks, weather forecast that has just been on is the best I have ever seen.

What an amazing winter compared to the last nearly 20 years.

I may finally get reasonable accumulations snow here too, its been a while.

Russ

[Highland Snow]

Mrs Highland Snow has been busy.

Check out her Video "It started with a Flake":

Or as a high resolution slideshow:

http://www.flickr.co...75234@N02/show/

Enjoy!

[ribster]

The BBC week ahead forecast was absolutely epic for snow, cold and dry I keep hearing, you must be joking

[Jamie.]

Seen that forecast too!

Looked like constant snow for South East England from Wednesday to Friday! (and they told people not to panic)

Edited January 3, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[NorthernRab]

Anyone? Link to Country Life somewhere? Pretty please?

[Neilsouth]

FROM RETRON ON TWO , Public Links

[snowblizzard]

I am sure that the BBC country file sorry tracks, weather forecast that has just been on is the best I have ever seen.

What an amazing winter compared to the last nearly 20 years.

I may finally get reasonable accumulations snow here too, its been a while.

Russ

Very similar to John Ketleys Farmers forecast in Jan 1987 where he started the forecast by saying "The brightest part of this forecast is my tie!" "It's going to be a bitterly cold week across the whole of the country, most area's will see some snow and some area's will see a lot of snow!"

Edited January 3, 2010 by snowblizzard