General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:

[bennytes]

Noticed just now that there is a half moon in the sky, which means that come next week, the moon will be just about full, which is an abiding memory i have of the two blizzards in 78 and 82. In the aftermath, the big bright full moon shining down, through freezing cold night skies.

below is a newspaper report of the 78 blizzard showing the full moon.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v645/zloty/Feb1978b.jpg

waxing gibbous at the moment, which means come this event happening, we'll be just about at the full moon!

http://www.calculatorcat.com/moon_phases/phasenow.php

actually, it's full on new year's eve..

http://www.woodlands-junior.kent.sch.uk/time/moon/

being self employed, i'm actually quite worried about this, but as the missus just said, everyone's in the same boat, so what the hell, bring it on!

[clark3r]

That sounds realistic Ian, although at this range there is still a margin for error around 50-100 miles north or south. There is very good agreement that the uk will become covered in an Arctic flow of some considerable magnitude from the second half of next week with snow for everyone in one form or another and a return of sharp frosts...it doesn't get much better than this

i feel some where in the uk will see their biggest snow fall since 1978 or possibly before that this next week! i reckon wednesdays event will be big and disruptive with some areas seeing over a foot of snow! will wait and see!

[fear sneachta]

i feel some where in the uk will see their biggest snow fall since 1978 or possibly before that this next week! i reckon wednesdays event will be big and disruptive with some areas seeing over a foot of snow! will wait and see!

Sounds exciting. I'd say many parts of southern England will see snow again with snow showers for northern England and Scotland. This is just my opinion.

As for myself seeing any snow in Dublin, I'm not hopeful. I've all but given up all hope as I saw zero snow from this current cold spell, believe it or not.

I'm not going to expect anything anymore. Hope the rest of you have enjoyed your bucketfuls of snow.

Oh and it's raining now by the way!

Edited December 25, 2009 by fear sneachta

[kold weather]

Thanks for putting the ECM chart up. Once again we could do with the front being flatter rather then that angle.

Ian, I also agree if this system will go anywhere it will be southwards, typically we see this happen with systems at this range. Of course it could equally still be shunted northwards as well, hard one to call.

I personally think the 06z is close to where it will end up, the other ensembles and models are a little further north with the cold air but I think the 06z is close, maybe a touch further south.

Therefore I'd broadly agree with Ian but put the snow zone a touch further north, the rain in the south probably will turn to snow as the cold air digs in...its going to have quite some time to dig in as well as this is a very slow moving set-up, therefore in the bullseye zone we really could be looking at a 36hr period where we see 9-12 inches.

[Frosty.]

Thanks for putting the ECM chart up. Once again we could do with the front being flatter rather then that angle.

Ian, I also agree if this system will go anywhere it will be southwards, typically we see this happen with systems at this range. Of course it could equally still be shunted northwards as well, hard one to call.

I personally think the 06z is close to where it will end up, the other ensembles and models are a little further north with the cold air but I think the 06z is close, maybe a touch further south.

Therefore I'd broadly agree with Ian but put the snow zone a touch further north, the rain in the south probably will turn to snow as the cold air digs in...its going to have quite some time to dig in as well as this is a very slow moving set-up, therefore in the bullseye zone we really could be looking at a 36hr period where we see 9-12 inches.

Hi kold and merry christmas

Are you a bit more optimistic now than you were following the GFS 18z?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Thanks, do you have a link please so i can add to my bookmarks ?

Hi Mark , the link to his chart is here : http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[BristolBlizzard]

You poor lad!!

Im lost lol ???

[Mark Bayley]

Hi Mark , the link to his chart is here : http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

Thanks for that

[bennytes]

Hi Mark , the link to his chart is here : http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

from that link...

'General synopsis

FAR S OF ICELAND IS AN EXTENSIVE 978 MB LOW, HARDLY MOV. OVER NE GREENLAND IS A 1035 MB HIGH.'

is this what is technically known as a cold rampers wet dream?

[reef]

A new thread ready for the 12z: