North West Cold Spell Discussion 4

[Liam J]

-2.3c here and like an ice rink out side, after todays rain we need the snow to deliver tomorrow!!

[Backtrack]

-1c by midnight looks likely.

-0.2c outside atm.

[James M]

I wish the cloud would get a move on! still quite a bit around, however temp dropping albeit quite slowly, -1.3°C atm.

Edited December 19, 2009 by James M

[HotCuppa]

We are sitting pretty at -0.8C at the moment, and looking at the radar those showers look like they are going to pack in before tonight is out..which is great news that the temps have dropped significantly everywhere.

[karyo]

Very icy in Manchester as the sky is clearing!

The snow showers in Northern Ireland are looking very healthy but still a good 6 hours or more before they start affecting us.

Karyo

[James M]

Looking at the radar I can see why it's still so cloudy here, some precip close by, doesn't look like it will affect this area though.

[HotCuppa]

Looking at the radar I can see why it's still so cloudy here, some precip close by, doesn't look like it will affect this area though.

There is a slight concern that those showers affecting nw scotland are too far east for them to hit us as it travels se. Either this is an alignment issue or all those showers will miss us completely.

Ironic the SE is affected by snow more than us. typical..they have an eastery they get it, they get a nw they get..and we get the rain lolz

Edited December 19, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Weather-history]

There is a slight concern that those showers affecting nw scotland are too far east for them to hit us as it travels se. Either this is an alignment issue or all those showers will miss us completely.

Showers can develop in the Irish Sea, infact that is often the case.

The latest FAX chart for 6pm tomorrow. Note the trough in the Irish Sea

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Edited December 19, 2009 by Mr_Data

[James M]

Yeah I was thinking that any showers would develope later in the Irish Sea. That trough looks good! plenty of precip about then.

[karyo]

Showers can develop in the Irish Sea, infact that is often the case.

The latest FAX chart for 6pm tomorrow. Note the trough in the Irish Sea

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

That's a lovely fax chart for less than 24 hours from now! It clearly shows the one trough that will affect s during the day, exiting the east coast - this means it should be an active feature!

Then the next one is in the Irish sea and should affect us in the first part of the night.

Excellent!

Karyo

Edited December 19, 2009 by karyo

[Snow free zone]

Can someone more knowledgeable offer any thoughts on potential forming of a polar low ? I know they are often mentioned, what are the chances in this air mass, is it unstable enough ? are conditions right ?

We are down at minus 3.8 at the moment, the road is like a skating rink.

[SP1986]

Temperature falling really fast here now -0.4C from 0C in literally 10 minutes. There's also a seabreeze but this will not prevent the temperature going down to say -3C or -4C perhaps.

[James M]

Bingo! skies are clearing :o, temp is plummeting, down to -2.4C from -1.5C in 15 minutes! some temp drop!

Edited December 19, 2009 by James M

[Snowmad79]

You guys near me must be seeing some temp drops soon im down -3.1 atm and agreed that is one nice fax chart you posted Mr D

[SP1986]

wow this is one of the fastest drops Ive seen, -1.0C now from -0.8C literally 1 minute ago.

[Snowmad79]

Yep Defo a nice steady drop now .. theres even a chilly draft in my flat caused by the feezing cold windows ... infact my wine is getting nicely chilled on inside sill lol.

Looks like the gritters are giving up for the night and not risking sheet ice from the meltage.

[Weather-history]

The first shower entering the North Channel

Edited December 20, 2009 by Mr_Data

[HotCuppa]

wow this is one of the fastest drops Ive seen, -1.0C now from -0.8C literally 1 minute ago.

a very nice northerly blowing in now

[karyo]

The first shower entering the North Channel

Indeed, some nice progress there!

Pretty shortly the Isle of Man will be affected.

Karyo

Edited December 20, 2009 by karyo

[Snowmad79]

Indeed, some nice progress there!

Pretty shortly the Isle of Man will be affected.

Karyo

This next lot of ppn is gonna keep us on our toes and I hope Mr D was right about what can happen with the trough in Irish sea on the fax chart becuase im looking at the meto and meteox and raintoday radars and Im getting a feeling the best of the ppn is already coming in more from a more easterly position and with a NW wind the same senario as the band we had earlier might happen with it sliding down the east side of the uk. The showers in the Irish sea look like there on a more southerly trajectory. At this point are we looking at possible scattered and random bouts of ppn of the likes weve already seen and move through just as if not quiker than the last ?

Just about to hit -4 here ... BINGO

Edited December 20, 2009 by Snowmad79

[karyo]

This next lot of ppn is gonna keep us on our toes and I hope Mr D was right about what can happen with the trough in Irish sea on the fax chart becuase im looking at the meto and meteox and raintoday radars and Im getting a feeling the best of the ppn is already coming in more from a more easterly position and with a NW wind the same senario as the band we had earlier might happen with it sliding down the east side of the uk. The showers in the Irish sea look like there on a more southerly trajectory. At this point are we looking at possible scattered and random bouts of ppn of the likes weve already seen and move through just as if not quiker than the last ?

Just about to hit -4 here ... BINGO

Don't worry, the wind direction will change from northerly to northwesterly and then westerly. As a result, the showers will affect the entire region.

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Don't worry, the wind direction will change from northerly to northwesterly and then westerly. As a result, the showers will affect the entire region.

Karyo

We DONT want a west wind.Mild sectors will come into play with a wind off the atalantic!! :lol:

[karyo]

We DONT want a west wind.Mild sectors will come into play with a wind off the atalantic!! :lol:

It's inevitable that the wind will change direction as the low comes down. It will become slack by Monday though and will allow the surface cold to build. Expect some impressive minima under clear skies early next week.

Karyo

[SP1986]

Looks like NW;lies are already exerting their influence here, it's risen from -1.6 to -1.2 but keeps switching back between -1.2 and -1.3 so it could equally plummet later on if we lose the winds

[Osbourne One-Nil]

-9.3C here. I would go to bed, but someone let the fire go out, and I need to get it going otherwise I'll wake up in the morning to frozen children.