East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Neilsouth]

Wow , Lovely outside... Cold , Fresh and a clear but orange tint to the sky!

[TEITS]

I'd bet convection would be a lot more than what the 12Z GFS suggests too Dave...some parts of East Anglia could be under deep snow by Friday night.

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs962.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs963.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs964.html

Most certainly Paul.

Im trying to think back to previous E,lys and what actually happened. I know the Dec 05 E,ly bought more snow than the models suggested. Also for the thames streamer in Feb this year I don't think this was modelled until 48rs out.

At this early stage im thinking E Anglia/Lincs are at greater risk than Kent. Most probably change though.

[PB22]

Most certainly Paul.

Im trying to think back to previous E,lys and what actually happened. I know the Dec 05 E,ly bought more snow than the models suggested. Also for the thames streamer in Feb this year I don't think this was modelled until 48rs out.

At this early stage im thinking E Anglia/Lincs are at greater risk than Kent. Most probably change though.

I'm also thinking back to Sunday, when we had 12mm of rain here from showers coming in off the North Sea despite the relatively high pressure and the fact the air wasn't as cold as its set to be at the end of the week. Even colder air over a relatively warm North Sea sounds juicy!

[paul tall]

Most certainly Paul.

Im trying to think back to previous E,lys and what actually happened. I know the Dec 05 E,ly bought more snow than the models suggested. Also for the thames streamer in Feb this year I don't think this was modelled until 48rs out.

At this early stage im thinking E Anglia/Lincs are at greater risk than Kent. Most probably change though.

It's alright for some TEITS! Wasn't last years 10 inches or so not enough for you?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think there is two SEs.

I've made an attempt to diagram the potential for failure so that people in different parts of the SE region can understand what is going on in the other part.

Sorry it's a pretty cruddy DIY job.

[TEITS]

It's alright for some TEITS! Wasn't last years 10 inches or so not enough for you?

The way I see it is you can always do with a few more inches.

[Neilsouth]

This is a little fustrating , seems the easterlies are getting weaker and weaker and the snow potential is getting shunted later and later!. First it was late wednesday , then thursday now it's friday , just as i said in the model discussion it would do. At this rate it'll be next week!

[Tim Bland]

I've made an attempt to diagram the potential for failure so that people in different parts of the SE region can understand what is going on in the other part.

Sorry If I'm the only one being dense but what does that map represent?

[sandstorm2]

He He steady on!

SS2

[TEITS]

I wouldn't worry even if you miss the snow showers because we have a very active cold front moving S!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.png

[Coast]

This is a little frustrating , seems the easterlies are getting weaker and weaker and the snow potential is getting shunted later and later!. First it was late wednesday , then thursday now it's friday , just as i said in the model discussion it would do. At this rate it'll be next week!

Just in time for Christmas!!!!! I'll be happy to see it at anytime Neil

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I've made an attempt to diagram the potential for failure so that people in different parts of the SE region can understand what is going on in the other part.

Sorry If I'm the only one being dense but what does that map represent?

North Sea and channel SSTs making it too marginal for snow on the coasts in the current set-up.

[PB22]

I've made an attempt to diagram the potential for failure so that people in different parts of the SE region can understand what is going on in the other part.

Sorry If I'm the only one being dense but what does that map represent?

That someone is going to **** in the snow around the coasts?

I think AFT is trying to make the point that snow may not fall around the coastlines because of the warm sea temperatures. Personally I think with uppers of -10C to -12C, it wouldn't be an issue:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs1082.html

[Neilsouth]

Just in time for Christmas!!!!! I'll be happy to see it at anytime Neil

Lol ya me too! , we did really badly here during the previous winter. The streamer went past most of the north/north east kent counties and went into gillingham,chatham, surrey e.t.c

[saint]

Lol ya me too! , we did really badly here during the previous winter. The streamer went past most of the north/north east kent counties and went into gillingham,chatham, surrey e.t.c

I think the streamer affected this area! in Feb, I was suprised but it seemed to affect us getting quite a bit of snow, it was amazing how large the area was affected back then!

[paul tall]

The way I see it is you can always do with a few more inches.

LOL I won't and can't argue with that one.

[i luv snow]

Wow looking really good for EA and Lincs on Friday isn't it! Certainly looks like some decent snowfall to come (incidentally Im gonna be in Norwich dressed as Superman on Friday night, what fun...lol)

[kold weather]

AFT does make a point with regards to the SST's modifying the lower flow however I suspect come Thursday we will see the uppers being cold enough and the precip potent enough generally to not need to worry about that too much, may have a hard time getting snow to settle in the daytime but overnight I think there is nothing to relaly stress about.

Also as Eye said there is a strong cold front progged to come down, whats interesting is that the feature is very obvious on many of the GFS ensembles this morning as well...and whilst its too early to call what could happen ios the front runs out of steam and gives quite a long period of snow...worth watching just in case.

[Country Boy]

Its been a dry quite day here today with little wind,so the wind chill has not been a problem. The radar shows there is something moving towards us from the Noth East. And at this time is very close, but the cloud seems to be keeping the temps. up..So I think there is only a 10% chance of this being snow. Any one further up the coast to say what they are getting ??

[i luv snow]

I'd bet convection would be a lot more than what the 12Z GFS suggests too Dave...some parts of East Anglia could be under deep snow by Friday night.

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs962.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs963.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs964.html

Not gonna moan with that for Friday!

[Neilsouth]

Not gonna moan with that for Friday!

Come on move it south , pick up that wind so we can all have a go! ..

Snow thief! :wacko:

[Rich44]

Heavy snow blasts into E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.png

P.S Steady on you lot we will be needing a new thread by 5pm.

woooooooah if that comes off and it falls as snow well.....

Thank God it's all happening after weds as travelling into Norwich that day so can take the opportunity to stock up on provisions just in case. Hopefully that cold air is enough to overcome the sea temps. It's pretty chilly out there tonight already I really must buy a thermometer!

[kold weather]

Yep Friday does look interesting, the 12z has a stronger trough/front feature coming into EA/SE which gives a decent snow set-up. Very uncertain right now though and we need to wait till later this week to get more of a grip...my location will almost certainly need troughs however. Whilst we have a favorable wind direction its being sourced from France which means there isn't going to be huge instablity about, indeed the airmass won't be too different to today on Thursday in the SE, granted a bit colder!

[Iceni]

Just called the dogs in and the temperature seems to have dropped a degree or two in the space of an hour — feels v. chilly out there although my nearest WS says 4.1° C — feels definitely colder than that though. Could happen.

[i luv snow]

Yep Friday does look interesting, the 12z has a stronger trough/front feature coming into EA/SE which gives a decent snow set-up. Very uncertain right now though and we need to wait till later this week to get more of a grip...my location will almost certainly need troughs however. Whilst we have a favorable wind direction its being sourced from France which means there isn't going to be huge instablity about, indeed the airmass won't be too different to today on Thursday in the SE, granted a bit colder!

I am with you Kold, but in this set-up you would expect some sort of trough to cover EA in snow...finer details like where and how much wouldnt be confirmed till MUCH nearer the time..but this is, imo, only to expected in this sort of picture. Looking promising atleast