East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[shuggee]

Please use this thread to have a good old chat about the prospects for something wintry in East Anglia and south east England

[bunny1972]

well im hoping for so snow but not confident at all, the charts look great but temp here at minute is 2.9c and dew point 2.2c cloudy my gutt feeling is that the north sea to warm un all we will see is wet snow at best!!

[Cableguy]

Not expecting anything here in surrey apart from grey skies and cold temps, good luck to those of you in the favoured areas!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Max today in Gravesend, Kent: 8 Celsius.

but temp here at minute is 2.9c and dew point 2.2c cloudy my gutt feeling is that the north sea to warm un all we will see is wet snow at best!!

That's rain.

[kold weather]

I'm personally not really expecting a whole lot of snow locally in SW Essex, front is just out of reach today and tomorrow, Thursday and Friday shows the best chance but the winds never really line up for a decent shot at snow here and a NE wind never really gives more then the odd isolated dying shower for my location, whilst locations 20 miles up the road have several cms on the ground.

Anyway in general, the eastern side of that front really is looking more and more interesting, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of snow though whether it settles all that well I'm not sure, overnight I suppose there is a shot. I' thinking from just south-west of the wash down to the northern home Counties.

Interestingly, the 12z once again slightly shunts the system SE...along with the cold air...

[saint]

Very fine sleety/snow fell for about an hour this morning, so fine it could hardly be seen and didn't settle but was falling!

[Tim Bland]

Do people think that Hertfordshire will be in for Snow tonight? I think we are just on the Eastern side of the precipitation

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

We've got a lot of pesky cloud here at the moment which I think is trapping the mild air at the ground.

PPN would help bring down the temperatures but we don't get much PPN here anyway and would not want it "wasted" in a bid to lower the temperature.

What we need is clear skies tonight and a good hard frost - let's hope that band of PPN coming down the East avoids the SE.

Let's lock in the cold first then look for PPN!

[guitarnutter]

How many South East threads will you guys get through by the end of the cold spell? 20?

[Paul Sherman]

whilst locations 20 miles up the road have several cms on the ground.

Interestingly, the 12z once again slightly shunts the system SE...along with the cold air...

Actually I am 21 miles up the road from you - get it right!

[saint]

Do people think that Hertfordshire will be in for Snow tonight? I think we are just on the Eastern side of the precipitation

No idea fellow Herts person!

I didn't realise there was a chance this evening.......

[Mr.Plow]

I alternate from living in Norwich to near Gt Yarmouth.

While I am confident one of these locations will see some snow falling I still have the memories of previous let downs.

Just need a little luck though and we COULD have something memorable! (Such a fine line between that and failure though)

[Barometric]

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

James

[Tim Bland]

No idea fellow Herts person!

I didn't realise there was a chance this evening.......

I think we could be in a prime position. The best chance will be early hours of tommorow morning before it nudges away to our west. I believe you have a bit of altitude is St Albans as well so should see a slight covering.

Lots more snow on the latest GFS for Weds and the showers are more potent for Thurs!

[Neilsouth]

Finally!! , hello my fellow south easternies!

Not sure on the snow front , i think we will get some good falls once the winds turn north east , east and the temps come down. met/bbc playing it down though , looks to be dry

[donna-m]

According to the NW radar the rain band is falling as snow in some parts, can anyone confirm this ??

[Coast]

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow.

Likewise, but this year I will take anything I can get! Snow is on it's way over the next few days (fingers firmly crossed), but I'm not sure how much and when it's going be. Good luck everyone in the E and SE!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

James

Hi and welcome

Would agree with that. We are favoured in this part of the SE during NE'erlies. Each cold spell that I can remember of this type has delivered at least some snow showers to my local area - on some occasions with some decent enough accumulations. Northerlies usually produce very little - most especially north westerlies. So we will be depending on the sort of features you mention from the weekend onwards

[snowking]

According to the NW radar the rain band is falling as snow in some parts, can anyone confirm this ??

Looking at the dew points in the locations shown to be receiving snow id suggest not (maybe that should be )

Kind Regards

SK

[saint]

I think we could be in a prime position. The best chance will be early hours of tommorow morning before it nudges away to our west. I believe you have a bit of altitude is St Albans as well so should see a slight covering.

Lots more snow on the latest GFS for Weds and the showers are more potent for Thurs!

Yeah St. Albans is at altitude!

Thurs/Fri/Sat looks very interesting especially after looking at the forecasts on several sites, low temps not getting above freezing and snow! Interesting times ahead!

Edited December 14, 2009 by saint

[TEITS]

Heavy snow blasts into E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.png

P.S Steady on you lot we will be needing a new thread by 5pm.

[Paul Sherman]

Latest GFS Out to Thurs Evening at present and this is suggesting anything that falls from late Wednesday onwards is going to be Snow for EA & South East.

Nice Looking 12z and very similar to GFS 06z at present, also now have very similar scenarios from the Big 3 at T72

Paul S

[kold weather]

Just a little note to be made, the GFS is still shifting the intial wave of precip in the early hours of tonight SE, now reaches the London area briefly. Any falls from this initial easterly portion of the front will be light however given the dry air in place.

Anyway for Kent and probably anywhere SE/E of London probably won't be much snow if any till Thursday and even then any amounts will be low as we seem to import a more stable airflow as winds orginate from France despite the easterly airflow. We will probably be as dependant as the Midlands here in the far SE on troughs as they are!

[PB22]

Heavy snow blasts into E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn964.png

P.S Steady on you lot we will be needing a new thread by 5pm.

I'd bet convection would be a lot more than what the 12Z GFS suggests too Dave...some parts of East Anglia could be under deep snow by Friday night.

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs962.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs963.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rmgfs964.html

[snowking]

Im not sure what the NW extra radar is programmed with in terms of parameters *hopes paul will see this and step in* but it seems to be a little out of sync at the moment.

Its suggesting the precip will be snow here:

With dews of 2c very unlikely at this stage id have thought

Interesting night ahead though

SK