Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[chionomaniac]

Grr, first drop below average indicated at the 10mb level today by ECM forecasts. Is this the traditional seasonal 'cold drop'?

30mb temps still predicted above average - but overall trends need to be watched this week

There is a warming present at the 10 hPa level at around 45º-55ºN at approx 120ºE. It is just that this warming is not being 'sucked' into the vortex when compared to previous forecasts. Not by the ECM at any rate, and we wait to see what the GFS shows when it updates.

[chionomaniac]

Well, the warm core that I mentioned at the 10hPa level, that never ingratiates itself with the polar vortex on the ECM, does continue to show that that is not the case with the GFS, which is suggesting that the warming heads further north than 60ºN. We are seeing a battle of the GFS vs ECM stratospherically now!

The 10 day forecast for the GFS at 10 hPa shows a worthy warming moving towards Canada.

And look what happens to the polar vortex.... Hmmm.

ECM is having none of it though, keeping the warming further away, and the singular oval vortex shape intact over Northern Siberia.

Certainly worth keeping an eye on because I believe the GFS is forecasting a proper Canadian Warming (CW).

Edited November 16, 2009 by chionomaniac

[cooling climate]

Ozone levels continue to grow over the northern hemisphere especially over northern Canada and Greenland.

Am I right in thinking this would help promote blocking in these areas?.

Edited November 17, 2009 by cooling climate

[chionomaniac]

Ozone levels continue to grow over the northern hemisphere especially over northern Canada and Greenland.

Am I right in thinking this would help promote blocking in these areas?.

Theoretically yes - read GP's posts and links earlier in the thread -they help explain this.

Also there is an interesting thread on Eastern regarding the Brewer Dobson Circulation showing how right GP was earlier in the thread.

The GFS and ECM are still at loggerheads stratospherically and even though I haven't had time yet to look at the tropospheric models yet, I think there will probably be big differences there regarding vortex positioning. My guess is that until the stratospheric forecasts correlate between the big two, then there will still be big differences tropospherically.

[Weather-history]

Any more updates?

Edited November 20, 2009 by Mr_Data

[chionomaniac]

Any more updates?

Sorry not for a little while as I am in hospital with a knee injury.

[johnholmes]

sorry to hear that ch-hope the knee soon mends

Edited November 21, 2009 by johnholmes

[Fozfoster]

Sorry not for a little while as I am in hospital with a knee injury.

Sorry to hear that, Missing your input, get well soon . FF

[Methuselah]

Get well soon ch...Your imput is missed! :lol:

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi chiono,

Get better soon, always look forward to your posts. Hope all those lovely nurses are keeping your stratosphere warmed......

Dont believe I just said that, at this hour! :lol:

Regards,

Tom.

[Glacier Point]

A comparison of total ozone concentrations over mid November during the last decade provides some illuminating insight into how we stand right now and why we are very much better placed to resist the usual drop in stratospheric temperatures as we head into December.

Ozone concentrations more or less translate to stratospheric temperatures, the more ozone the warmer the air and greater the geopotential height anomaly. Also, we need to look at the concentration of ozone over the tropics as less ozone there indicates enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation activity and a weaker thermal gradient across the hemisphere (weaker polar westerlies - weaker polar vortex).

Current:

2008:

2007:

2006:

(no data for 2005)

2004:

2003:

2002: (1st December)

2001:

2002 and 2004 were the closest matches but in both years the tropical stratosphere concentrations were much greater.

With the tropical stratosphere cooling again, this should strengthen ozone concentrations over the Arctic into late December.

A couple of things are very evident looking at these comparisons:

1) The polar vortex will be weaker than any other winter this decade.

2) The position of the ozone concentration has been consistently building over the Pacific. These drift east over time. This means that the most likely place for the warming (and tropospheric impacts) look like starting over the Canadan Arctic and migrating eastwards towards Greenland with a trough over Scandinavia and western Russia.

Hope that knee improves Ed.

Edited November 21, 2009 by Glacier Point

[Weather-history]

Sorry not for a little while as I am in hospital with a knee injury.

Sorry to hear about this. Hope the knee gets better soon.

[weatherjunkie]

A comparison of total ozone concentrations over mid November during the last decade provides some illuminating insight into how we stand right now and why we are very much better placed to resist the usual drop in stratospheric temperatures as we head into December.

Ozone concentrations more or less translate to stratospheric temperatures, the more ozone the warmer the air and greater the geopotential height anomaly. Also, we need to look at the concentration of ozone over the tropics as less ozone there indicates enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation activity and a weaker thermal gradient across the hemisphere (weaker polar westerlies - weaker polar vortex).

Current:

2008:

2007:

2006:

(no data for 2005)

2004:

2003:

2002: (1st December)

2001:

2002 and 2004 were the closest matches but in both years the tropical stratosphere concentrations were much greater.

With the tropical stratosphere cooling again, this should strengthen ozone concentrations over the Arctic into late December.

A couple of things are very evident looking at these comparisons:

1) The polar vortex will be weaker than any other winter this decade.

2) The position of the ozone concentration has been consistently building over the Pacific. These drift east over time. This means that the most likely place for the warming (and tropospheric impacts) look like starting over the Canadan Arctic and migrating eastwards towards Greenland with a trough over Scandinavia and western Russia.

Hope that knee improves Ed.

Delicious

Thanks for the update.

On a side note, I wish you a speed recovery Chi, and I appreciate the information you have given to me.

Edited November 21, 2009 by weatherjunkie

[cooling climate]

Very interesting GP, encouraging signs of something far more wintry than what we have

seen so far this decade.

Although as always other indices have to play ball.

[cooling climate]

Fantastic tool here for archives of ozone levels in the northern hemisphere back to 1970.

Environment

Canada Environnement

Canada FrançaisContact usHelpSearchCanada SiteEnvironment CanadaScience and Technology BranchARQX Home

<H1 align=center>Select Ozone Maps</H1><BR clear=all>ARQX Home

Ozone and UV Home

Canadian Ozone

Network

Today's obs

Ozone+UV plots

Forecasts

Data

<A style="TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/uv.htm">UV Index (UVI)

Definition

Climatology

UVI Today

Year-to-date UV

Year-to-date max UV

UVI graph archive

Data

UV Index Calculator

World ozone maps

Climate NH SH Globe

Recent NH SH Globe

Individual sources NH SH Globe

Forecasts NH SH Globe

Map archive

Data Site Map

Edited November 22, 2009 by cooling climate

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hoping that our thread owner has a speedy recovery asap

Lets also hope that ozone is our winter friend this year!

[phil nw.]

My best wishes to C. as well.

I thought that this chart may update the Stratosphere temp. state.

I am no expert,but readings look near normal and the 8days forecast continues this theme.

Also this chart for yesterday overview forecast temp.profile T+96hrs.

Note the warmest areas over Canada and E.Siberia.

I hope these charts are helpfull to anyone wondering about the state of Strat.

Please don`t ask me questions as my knowlege is very limited,just a basic understanding that Warmings over the Polar regions are helpfull towards Height rises later.

Maybe our more informed members can elaborate.

Edited November 22, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[cooling climate]

Speedy recovery C. Miss your balanced informative analysis.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/ecmwfpv?alert=1&level=400&forecast=f192

To me this shows blocking over Greenland or an increase in heights anyway and low pressure over the UK and western Europe.

Temperatures seem to on the rise again at 30mb.

Temperature over the North Pole

[chionomaniac]

I am back home today and would like to thank everyone for their best wishes. Following surgery I am laid out for 6-9 weeks which is now going to give me far too much time to study the stratosphere for the first half of winter!

Catching up (on other threads), one of the first things that I feel may need clarifying is that presently we are currently seeing a warm stratosphere which is different from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (or also termed Major Midwinter warming). The latter are big events that completely disrupt and reverse the westerly winds of the stratosphere. What we are seeing now are a series of minor warming events that have prevented the stratosphere from cooling as per normal as seen in other years. This has been assisted by the increased Brewer-Dobson Circulation and by strong mountain torque events and has prevented the polar vortex settling over the North Pole up to now. I don't think that the current warm stratosphere is strong enough to cause strong tropospheric northern blocking and any major subsequent cold spells due to the other strong overriding tropospheric signals influencing matters.

The early stratospheric winter forecasts have strongly hinted that a Canadian Warming may be possible but by the time these come to T+00 the forecast warming has been reduced. The stratosphere is forecast to cool over the coming days but the 10 day forecast tellingly of both the GFS and ECM are suggesting another partial warming of the Pacific stratosphere.

These warming will need monitoring because even though not major they could cause some minor disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. Whether or not this propagates down to the troposphere is another matter entirely.

c

[ThunderStorms]

I think this is good news !!

The major models suggest anomalies for south-western of Europe, specially after this mid-month !!

These models suggest High Anomalies for North-western of Europe (Greenland) ....

I am optimist for my country, and for your country too !!!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think this is good news !!

The major models suggest anomalies for south-western of Europe, specially after this mid-month !!

These models suggest High Anomalies for North-western of Europe (Greenland) ....

I am optimist for my country, and for your country too !!!

I think compared to several recent years it is certainly more encouraging

We wait to see how things pan out, but the portents for later in the winter show some promise as conditions look conduisive for stratospheric warming events and a weaker polar vortex than we have seen in recent years. Much as discussed by various members.

There continue to still be encouraging signs for a developing -NAO regime - so even with el nino, which implies a strong sub tropical jet stream, there is better chance for lows to undercut with pressure relatively higher over Greenland than usual. More especially from New Year though as blocking patterns shift eastwards from Canada towards our neck of the Northern Hemisphere.

Welcome along to the forum by the way

Edited November 24, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Weather-history]

This chart is suggesting a sudden rise at the 10mb level.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1

What is the significance and cause of this?

[cooling climate]

This could very well be caused by wave breaking in the upper stratosphere brought on by

a strong positive +pna signal perhaps which would force warmer subtropical air into the

stratosphere causing a rapid ssw (sudden stratospheric warming ) event.

Edited November 25, 2009 by cooling climate

[chionomaniac]

This chart is suggesting a sudden rise at the 10mb level.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1

What is the significance and cause of this?

This rise at the 10 hPa level has been suggested for a long time now by the GFS and it is good and more believeable now that the ECM is also forecasting it to occur. It has been suggested that the stratosphere this winter will be far more amenable to warmings by wave breaking events that normally wouldn't have affected the stratosphere to any great degree in previous years. The enhanced BDC and easterly QBO have been put forward as reasons why.

So the next question is how will this warming (if it occurs) affect the vortex of the stratosphere and will it cause a SSW. The answer is it is still too early to tell. SSW's in early December are quite unusual - I think 1981 was an exception -however, Canadian type warmings are far more common, and if this occurs it would certainly be a significant one, with the polar vortex probably being displaced towards Siberia. The polar vortex is not reversed during a Canadian Warming which means that the tropospheric affects are far less pronounced.

ECM T+240

GFS T+240

c

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

This rise at the 10 hPa level has been suggested for a long time now by the GFS and it is good and more believeable now that the ECM is also forecasting it to occur. It has been suggested that the stratosphere this winter will be far more amenable to warmings by wave breaking events that normally wouldn't have affected the stratosphere to any great degree in previous years. The enhanced BDC and easterly QBO have been put forward as reasons why.

So the next question is how will this warming (if it occurs) affect the vortex of the stratosphere and will it cause a SSW. The answer is it is still too early to tell. SSW's in early December are quite unusual - I think 1981 was an exception -however, Canadian type warmings are far more common, and if this occurs it would certainly be a significant one, with the polar vortex probably being displaced towards Siberia. The polar vortex is not reversed during a Canadian Warming which means that the tropospheric affects are far less pronounced.

ECM T+240

GFS T+240

c

Hi - I expect you are glad to be home!? Hope your injury recovers asap

A canadian warming could sow the seed nicely for blocking potential shifting eastwards as the winter goes on, in line with growing opportunities for a full-on SSW with ozone distribution and amounts this year looking complissant for that - as GP has mentioned recently.

Whatever happens, so nice to be seeing upticks in the stratosphere line graphs predicted to perhaps start the winter this year when we are so used to seeing much longer downticks instead more usually at this time.