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Somerset Squall

Major Hurricane Rick

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Invest 93E continued to rapidly organise, and has become a tropical depression a little sooner than I expected. This rapid development could be a sign of things to come. 20E is located in a near perfect (if there is such a thing) environment for intensification, and it appears more likely than not that the new depression will rapidly intensify over the next few days. NHC are very aggressive with the intensity forecast, saying 20E will be a 115kt cat 4 hurricane in 5 days time- and even stating that this estimate may be too low. With waters so warm (around 31C) and expected to remain so along the west-northwest track, 20E has plenty of energy to tap into.

20E seems to be moving west-northwestwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge over Mexico. A break in this ridge is forecast to materialise in a few days time, which could send 20E to the north or even northeast, but this is still uncertain as it is a long way out. It may be a bit premature, but I think Baja California and the coast of Mexico in the vicinty of Baja need to keep a really close eye on 20E, as the steering pattern does not favour a typical continous northwest track. This is quite common for October, and indeed October and Novemeber see the most landfalls typically in the East Pacific. As 20E is forecast to become so strong, it could well end up being dangerous.

Latest imagery shows 20E is not far off becoming a tropical storm, some good central convection already along with some impressive banding features for a system that has just been declared a tropical depression:

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looks like my named storm is going to be a decent one

avn-l.jpg

vis-l.jpg

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Rick has continued to rapidly intensify in an environment of low shear, excellent outflow and hot sea temps. Rick has become a hurricane with intensity now at 65kts. Excellent banding features completely surround a solid central dense overcast with an embedded eye. Rick continues to move west-northwestwards, but the models disagree just what will happen in 72hrs as regards to Rick's steering. Tracks wildly range from a continuation of the west-northwest track or a bend northeast towards Baja California. The stronger the ridge remains, the more likely Rick will stay out to sea.

Rick is expected to continue to rapidly intensify. After about 96hrs, shear will increase and waters cool which will force weakening, btu until then, Rick has a very good environment to become a very intense storm.

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Rick is an impressive hurricane both in size and speed of intensification. Rick has become a large hurricane, whose outer bands are brushing the coast of Mexico despite the core of the hurricane being several hundred miles offshore. It is unclear just how much Rick will strengthen over the next day or so. NHC are forecasting a peak of 125kts, but in this situation, that is little more than an educated guess. Rick is sat in an area of non-existant shear, sea temps in excess of 30C, excellent upper level outflow and abundant tropical moisture. Rick is outdoing the models predictions so far, and as the environment is near perfect, NHC mention that it is more than possible for Rick to become a cat 5. The environment gradually deteriorates after 48hrs and waters gradually fall below 30C and shear slowly rises. If Rick does decide to approach Baja California, it will be weakening by then but could still pack quite a punch so needs to be watched.

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glad my name is living up to my love of hurricanes and being a beauty

20091016.2100.goes11.x.vis1km_high.20ERICK.70kts-984mb-128N-996W.100pc.jpg

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ep200920.gif

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cat 3 already

GOES031520092905emcZj.jpg

looks more and more impressive all the time

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Latests HWRF and GDFL runs both show Rick reaching 147kts. NHC have gone with a more conservative 155mph.

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Major Hurricane Rick continues to rapidly intensify. Intensity is now 125kts, with pressure down to 938mb. Rick is an extremely dangerous cat 4 hurricane, and NHC forecast Rick to become a cat 5. The only thing that will stop Rick attaining the legendary status is an eyewall replacement cycle, which would cuase weakening then the movement over cooler waters in about 24hrs time would cause further weakening. However, as Rick has another 24hrs over very hot water, then cat 5 is easily attainable if the above doesn't occur. What an amazing storm!

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Rick is on the verge of becoming a cat 5. Intensity is now at 130kts. In the last few hours, the eye has become perfectly defined, and is embedded in a large, symmetrical dense overcast. Rick has at least another 18hrs of hot waters, and excellent outflow. There are no signs of an eyewall replacement at the moment, though this can occur at any time. Rick is still moving west-northwestwards, but is likely to turn to the northeast as the ridge to the north weakens. Models now strongly favour landfall in Baja California followed by Mexixo. However, by this time, Rick should be significantly weaker then he is now due to increasing shear and cooler waters near Baja. Nonetheless, it could still be a cat 1/2 hurricane, capable of causing damage and flooding.

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000

WTPZ65 KNHC 172208

TCUEP5

HURRICANE RICK TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009

310 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...RICK BECOMES A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260 KM/HR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

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Not surprised Paranoid, the image below shows a stunning storm! Rick is the first cat 5 in the East Pacific since Kenna in 2002 (cat 5's are not common in the East Pacific), unless Jimena was a cat 5 earlier this year (it may be upgraded in post season analysis). Rick is the 3rd Cat 5 this year, the other two being Choi-wan and Melor in the West Pacific.

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stunning and amazing

from Atlantic invest to east Pacific power house

EPACHurricaneRickCat510172009.jpg

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

7.2 / 917.9mb/146.0kt

what a difference 24 hrs makes

ep200920_sat_2_anim.gif

ep200920_sat_2_anim-1.gif

sheer beauty absolutely breath taking

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Wow! definately a stunning storm, I wouldn't like to be on a ship near that! thanks for the updates guys.

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Now 2nd strongest, winds now 155kts, pressure 906mb. Only surpassed by Linda in 1997. Rick could still take the title:

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE

WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY

VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE

COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE

EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE

HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5

ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE

OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4

DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE

SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER

LINDA IN 1997.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH

TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL

FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO

SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES

OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE

WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS

VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW

SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR

SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL

HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM

MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS

NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH

AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD

MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS

RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE

IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST

AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND

AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES

BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT

72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT

96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT

120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Who thinks of the names for these hurricanes, is it whoever discovers them?

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wow. rick is awesome. i dont normally pay much attention to eastern pacific systems but rick looks astonishing.

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