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Tropical Storm Grace

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NHC has just labelled a new system North of the Canary Islands as TS Grace, currently at 65kts and heading North towards the South of England/Irish Sea by Tuesday.

Definitely one that caught me out and possibly a cold-core centre as many of the variants in the NE sector of the Atlantic have tended to be, could bring some intresting temperature variations and rainfall totals if this makes landfall in the South and Central areas.

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NHC has just labelled a new system North of the Canary Islands as TS Grace, currently at 65kts and heading North towards the South of England/Irish Sea by Tuesday.

Definitely one that caught me out and possibly a cold-core centre as many of the variants in the NE sector of the Atlantic have tended to be, could bring some intresting temperature variations and rainfall totals if this makes landfall in the South and Central areas.

Noticed this little feature just before i went to bed last night. Couldn't believe my eyes when i looked at satellite this morning !

Grace, our own little storm, after so little activity in the atlantic basin, generally.

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not often we get to see the 'eye' of a hurricane this close to the UK.

NW sat picc does not show it very well but the Dundee sat below does.

post-847-12547249390548_thumb.jpg

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wow. where did grace appear from . i'd given up on the atlantic hurricane season. as john h says the eye of a hurricane so close our shores must be pretty rare. puts me in mind of that recent neil diamond song "pretty amazing grace"

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t%20s%20grace.jpg

MIAMI(AP) --Forecasters say Tropical Storm Grace has formed far out in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean with winds at 65 mph (100 kph). The center of the storm was about 420 miles (675 km) northeast of the Azores Sunday night.

It's moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 kph). Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say the storm is expected to weaken in the next day. They say Grace is expected to be absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic Monday night or Tuesday

More dramatic pictures of Grace on this loop: www.yr.no

FONT14 KNHC 050848

PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009

0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2009

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)

ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME

EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME

CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES

AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS

THAN 1 PERCENT.

084713P_sm.gif

www.nhc.noaa.gov

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Just to say Gracie hasn't been a hurricane and isn't currently (NHC have upped her to 60Kts though which is just shy).

Certainty one of those strange beasts and I would have to look at the upper 500 temps that created Grace to see if she really is a tropical or not.

SST's of 20-21C.

Part of a broader area of LP.

Just about a marginal warm core.

She is shown by GFDL is just reach Hurricane status mid way between updates with max winds of 67Kts.

A definate UK heading and GFS takes her over Northern England in 48 hrs so the potential (assuming she doesn't degrade completely or something happening). NHC does degarde her though to 25Kts by this time with no tropical charecterisitics.)

post-6326-12547343035464_thumb.png

post-6326-12547343283228_thumb.png

post-6326-12547343527195_thumb.png

post-6326-12547343754711_thumb.png

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convection has deepened!!

20091005.0915.goes12.x.ir1km.09LGRACE.55kts-990mb-420N-190W.100pc.jpg

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009

500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009

...GRACE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...HEADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE

NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.0 WEST OR ABOUT 585

MILES...940 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR. THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS...AND GRACE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-

TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY

TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...43.0N 18.0W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009

500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009

DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION...INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GRACE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL BUT

IMPRESSIVE INNER CORE OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. MORE

RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IN

A RING SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE-TYPE FEATURE. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE CURRENT TREND OF INCREASING

ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. IT IS

UNCLEAR WHETHER SURFACE WINDS MATCH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...

ESPECIALLY SINCE CONVECTIVE TOPS MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER 20C

SSTS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY

DVORAK ESTIMATES...OTHER THAN AN ASCAT PASS OF 45-50 KT FROM MUCH

EARLIER.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT GRACE HAS ACCELERATED WHILE MOVING A

LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS HEADING AND IS NOW MOVING

045/24. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP LAYER OF

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND

DECELERATE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE NEARS IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON

THIS TRACK...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GRACE MOVES OVER

SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG

WESTERLY SHEAR. GRACE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL

CYCLONE OR ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC

WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 43.0N 18.0W 60 KT

12HR VT 05/1800Z 45.5N 16.5W 50 KT

24HR VT 06/0600Z 49.0N 15.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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It would be amazing if shear managed to hold off long enough for Grace to become a CAT1, as Convection wraps around the system i'd expect a slight strengthening even more by this afternoon, unfortunately by midnight the associated Low that Grace is progged to become dissipated in will start having its effects shear wise, but looking at the GFS ex-Grace will be significantly influencial on our weather in the next 48 hours.

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On todays satellite images there's a surface low, NW of Spain a few miles west of the Bay of Biscay resembling a tiny hurricane even has a distinguished 'eye'..!! Will it hold and reach sw UK..?

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amazing to have a system so relatively close to our shores on the brink of becoming a hurricane. although it wont almost certainly, as people have said, it will be impactful

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On todays satellite images there's a surface low, NW of Spain a few miles west of the Bay of Biscay resembling a tiny hurricane even has a distinguished 'eye'..!! Will it hold and reach sw UK..?

OMG that looks insane!!

The forecasts have been looking very favourable for some very heavy and also persistent rainfall over the coming 24-36 hours. There has also been strong indications for cyclogenesis very close if not over our shores, meaning a very unpredictable put also potentially intense spell of weather. GFS has been looking at the potential for some thundery conditions too, which is also worth looking at.

That satellite image does indeed look very ominous, and does resemble a mini hurricane. It does look like it is coming our way, though what with the interactions between the very warm air being pulled in from the S, and the cold air being pulled in from the North - how it will go and where it will go is anyones guess!!

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These little systems are always interesting as in theory they shouldnt form where they do. TS Grace has some remarkable similarities to Hurricane Vince in 2005 - that too was a small system but with a visible eye:

post-2418-12547394112447_thumb.jpg

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Going to merge this one in with the discussion on TS Gracie if that's OK with you guys?

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i believe that is tropical storm Grace which may cross the UK. Sustained winds about 60knts

Could give us some interesting weather and much needed rain in the South East.

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if only people would look at the threads before starting a new and similar thread-but there again!

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Sorry John, i didnt realize that this was 'Grace' as i dont think ive ever seen anything like this so close to the UK before... I was overtaken by awe and shock after looking at the 'live' satellite images... At least its brought more attention to this thread though.

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Sorry John, i didnt realize that this was 'Grace' as i dont think ive ever seen anything like this so close to the UK before... I was overtaken by awe and shock after looking at the 'live' satellite images... At least its brought more attention to this thread though.

yes I'm pretty sure I've never seen an eye so close to the UK

have to admit as well I had not seen it coming-only 'spotted' from an early morning post from one of our eagle eyed posters, about 4.30 this morning I think the post was!

ahead of Grace, WSW of Brest, there is already a large mass of cloud on the IR sat piccs, also on NW radar the first lightning discharge has occurred in that area. Upper winds would suggest, at the moment, that it MAY shear ENE but I suspect Grace is going to have a say in making some changes to events as the next 24 hours unfold. So a good idea to keep watching events-could turn out to be interesting in more ways than one.

the 1121 sat picc still shows the eye

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Here is a bit of a close up from approx 9.00am

post-8172-1254743262756_thumb.jpg

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Heres the latest pic from just over an hr ago.

Dvorak has it as a T rather than ST so still tropical in nature.(somehow)....

post-6326-12547442631315_thumb.png

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Possible tracks:

Grace_ModelMap.jpg

Looks like it could run out of puff before it gets to us:

084713.gif

What effect on wave heights/tides etc is this likely to have (if any)?

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I dont understand why this got moved over here, should be in the hurricane section as its a tropical storm.

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The eye has now fallen apart in the space of 30 mins or so.

I do have doubts about this storm, maybe an open wave in 24-36 hrs, with no winds to speak of.

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