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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Olaf

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A tropical depression has formed in the East Pacific from invest 91E, a couple hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Convection is loosely wrapped around a broad LLC. The depression only has about 12hrs to strengthen before shear is expected to dramatically increase. 18E is currently moving northwestwards, but the ridge steering the depression is forecast to break down allowing 18E to swing northeastwards towards the Baja Peninsula. 18E probably will dissipate before it makes it that far as the shear increases and waters cool with lattitude. The system has a fair chance of becoming a weak tropical storm before the shear increases.

post-1820-12544209270089_thumb.jpg

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The LLC of 18E has contracted a little over the last few hours and convection ahs remained persistant over the centre. Thus, 18E is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olaf, with intensity now at 35kts.

Olaf has around another 12hrs to strengthen. NHC suggest a peak of only 40kts before the anticipated shear takes over.

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2009EP18_4KMIRIMG_200910012015.GIF

just 3 more named systems needed to get a rick :good:

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Just two actually Cookie, Q isn't used so just Patricia to get out of the way. Considering it's early October I'd say there is a good chance of getting to Rick this year smile.gif . Just two away from my name last year in the East Pacific :good:

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Olaf has strengthened to 40kts. At the same time, it has accelerated to the the north along the western periphery of a ridge to the east. This is taking Olaf over cooler waters and higher shear so weakening should commence immediately. In fact, convection already looks a little scarce on the southern side of the circulation due to southerly shear. An approaching trough is expected to pull Olaf northeastwards beyond 24hrs towards Baja but the cyclone will probably degenerate into a remnant low prior to landfall.

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has given so much need rainfall to parts of the usa

last advisory issued

Last Advisory

HC 040230

TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009

OLAF HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A

TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY

TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ARE ALREADY

OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE

TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND

GUSTY WINDS.

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLAF WILL

CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON OLAF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO

HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 24.1N 112.3W 25 KT

12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 05/0000Z 25.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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