Major Hurricane Fred

[The PIT]

Fred Mk2 new and improved.

Whats the chances of it getting out of the shear???

[sammie]

Fred has a < 30% chance of regeneration in the next 48% hours acording to the NHC

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE

NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER

...THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

[Cookie]

Fred just keeps on fighting just a little

[Iceberg]

Fred still classified as 07. Is making a bit of a come back.

HWRF took him back upto TS strength and the SHIPS etc took him back to Hurricane status. Both have a very westerly path putting him in a more favourable environment.

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090916 0000 090916 1200 090917 0000 090917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.3N 48.5W 21.2N 51.5W 22.3N 54.5W 23.5N 57.5W

BAMD 20.3N 48.5W 21.1N 50.8W 21.8N 53.4W 22.3N 56.1W

BAMM 20.3N 48.5W 21.2N 51.3W 22.1N 54.3W 22.9N 57.4W

LBAR 20.3N 48.5W 21.2N 51.4W 22.2N 54.4W 23.0N 57.4W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090918 0000 090919 0000 090920 0000 090921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 60.0W 26.7N 63.9W 28.3N 66.3W 29.5N 69.1W

BAMD 22.5N 58.8W 22.6N 63.9W 22.3N 68.1W 21.8N 72.3W

BAMM 23.4N 60.2W 24.0N 65.3W 24.1N 69.7W 24.2N 74.6W

LBAR 23.7N 60.2W 24.5N 65.3W 24.3N 68.6W 20.7N 71.2W

SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 72KTS

DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 48.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 41.9W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

From the NHC.

"THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT"

[sammie]

This sytem will not give up without a good old fight.

I like I like Fred. Fred the Punk Hurricane. That's his new name.

[Cookie]

Fred still hanging on in their, barely an invest at times but still their

[Somerset Squall]

Fred's LLC became barely discernable over the last couple days, interesting to note it is spinning up and looks quite defined again, convection slowly increasing too. Waters are warm and shear has eased a lot in comparison to what it was. I'm not saying it will regenerate but chances look slightly higher than a couple days ago...

[MAF]

Fred's LLC became barely discernable over the last couple days, interesting to note it is spinning up and looks quite defined again, convection slowly increasing too. Waters are warm and shear has eased a lot in comparison to what it was. I'm not saying it will regenerate but chances look slightly higher than a couple days ago...

yep, worth keeping a closer eye on.

as you say, the shear values have dropped quite a bit over the last few days.

[londonsnow]

fred looks like it's really getting going again. lots of convection. wonder what the noaa will make of fred in their next advisory. it is such a quiet season overall, so different from recent years

[Moonstar]

This and its edited graphic satellite map made me laugh - is it due to El Nino?

http://www.accuweath...ler=0&article=7

Edited September 18, 2009 by Moonstar

[sammie]

This and its edited graphic satellite map made me laugh - is it due to El Nino?

http://www.accuweath...ler=0&article=7

I think part of it is down to El Nino, though I don't think its entirely to blame, you do get odd off years where there isn't much going on. Averages are averages for a reason.

From what I understand its down to a mix of El Nino and a ton load of Saharan Dust around in the air, the dust chokes development of storms...and in small amounts is necessary for storm development to act as condensation nuclei. Yet there are 987654321 other factors. No one really knows

[Cookie]

guess who's back back again!

this is getting laughable

[Somerset Squall]

As Cookie's image shows, a large convectional flare up has occured directly over the centre of Ex-Fred. Fred needs watching, as it could well end up in the Gulf Of Mexico. For a storm that formed so far east near the Cape Verde Islands, this is some mean feat (if indeed it does re-develop into a tropical depression). Conditions are marginal, with moderate shear, dry air but very warm sea temps. I never thought I would say this but I would give Fred a 50% chance of re-developing into a tropical depression over the next day or two- not really based on the environment, but on the tenacity of the remnants. As the remains have been shallow, no troughs have managed to pick Ex-Fred up and send him northeastwards- amazing for a storm who was forecast to stay out to sea!

[MAF]

Somerset, if it does re-emerge in the Gulf, and conditions become favourable for it to develope. will it be renamed, or will it stay as Fred???

[Somerset Squall]

Not entirely certain Mick, but I think it will still be Fred- as the disturbance is still being referred to as Ex-Fred by NHC. The remnants are certainly trackable across the entire Atlantic as a seperate entity.

[MAF]

Not entirely certain Mick, but I think it will still be Fred- as the disturbance is still being referred to as Ex-Fred by NHC. The remnants are certainly trackable across the entire Atlantic as a seperate entity.

well we shall see in a while i suppose. worth keeping an eye on for the near future i think :lol:

[londonsnow]

i think fred is remarkable in its defiance but its whats behind fred in the atlantic that is catching my eye. i think we may have a Grace. any thoughts from the experts?

[MAF]

i think fred is remarkable in its defiance but its whats behind fred in the atlantic that is catching my eye. i think we may have a Grace. any thoughts from the experts?

here is the NHC's view on it Londonsnow

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO

BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

still a lot of cool water to travel over though, so may affect the strength :lol:

[Cookie]

really dosent know when the game is up.

[Cookie]

badly sheared

[Cookie]

can we use this on Fred?

I borrowed it

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- nice one!