Sea Surface Temperature - SSTs

[phil nw.]

There is also the NOAA/NESDIS site which differs slightly when you compare to the Unisys site and I find it more difficult to see the anomalies on it. I don't know which one is more accurate.

http://www.osdpd.noa...st/anomaly.html

Thanks for that link C.Yes i see what you mean,can get confusing.

[azores92]

a couple of things: havent Westerly Wind Bursts died down in the pacific now, meaning eastern areas can warm up? also, current readings show central and western areas of the pacific have reached moderate nino intensity. surely, this isnt great news?

azores92

[Typhoon John]

a couple of things: havent Westerly Wind Bursts died down in the pacific now, meaning eastern areas can warm up? also, current readings show central and western areas of the pacific have reached moderate nino intensity. surely, this isnt great news?

azores92

You've got that first bit the wrong way round, it's the WWB that's fuelled the recent warming. While we've spiked up to moderate territory there's a way to go before we can call the Nino moderate. It's not just about a reading on a particular day it's the average peak in Nino 3.4 that matters.

[azores92]

You've got that first bit the wrong way round, it's the WWB that's fuelled the recent warming. While we've spiked up to moderate territory there's a way to go before we can call the Nino moderate. It's not just about a reading on a particular day it's the average peak in Nino 3.4 that matters.

ok, fair enough, my understanding of the ENSO is still very limited, now i know the WWB is responsible for the warming, not lack of :smiliz19:. however, most forecasts are still talking about el nino peaking at moderate levels or higher.

[Typhoon John]

I've just been looking at the latest temps and I'd agree with the moderate call. I had been expecting high end weak but things at the moment look hot. Still, I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. There's other factors at play and because things look West based, I think the Nino might actually help our Winter chances.

Edited November 2, 2009 by fozi999

[phil nw.]

Unisys.chart dated yesterday

Looks like El Nino is Moderate strength in patches,warmest near dateline.

I`m no expert but it doesn`t look a dramatically vigorous event at present,although i guess it`s not at it`s peak yet

Just found this NOAA chart dated today

Make of that what you will.Moderate strength spreading further East perhaps.

Edited November 2, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Unisys.chart dated yesterday

Looks like El Nino is Moderate strength in patches,warmest near dateline.

I`m no expert but it doesn`t look a dramatically vigorous event at present,although i guess it`s not at it`s peak yet

Just found this NOAA chart dated today

Make of that what you will.Moderate strength spreading further East perhaps.

Its certainly gaining momentum Phil.

I'd say chances of this becoming a strong el nino are increasing by the day! :winky:

[phil nw.]

Its certainly gaining momentum Phil.

I'd say chances of this becoming a strong el nino are increasing by the day!

I found this link on the NOAA site shows the development of the El Nino through October.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

It does seem to have increased in strength somewhat but still in the Moderate range.

[chionomaniac]

Is anyone else of the opinion that we seem to be losing that -NAO Atlantic profile?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Unisys.chart dated yesterday

Looks like El Nino is Moderate strength in patches,warmest near dateline.

I`m no expert but it doesn`t look a dramatically vigorous event at present,although i guess it`s not at it`s peak yet

Just found this NOAA chart dated today

Make of that what you will.Moderate strength spreading further East perhaps.

Sorry, but I see too much of a difference between the Unisys and NOAA chart.

If you look at the eastern end, the Unisys chart shows an amomoly of about 1.5C the NOAA cart is 2.5C, that's quite a difference in a day, are they using different data sets, Different averages or something else??

Is anyone else of the opinion that we seem to be losing that -NAO Atlantic profile?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

seems the pool off Labrador is cold, and the main heat is concentrated towards the Canaries.

So, from my perspective,no, I don't think we are

[karyo]

Is anyone else of the opinion that we seem to be losing that -NAO Atlantic profile?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Unfortunately, it seems that the negative anomalies off the coast of Newfoundland have decreased considerably since the last time I checked!

Karyo

Edited November 11, 2009 by karyo

[Devon-Nelly]

Its not looking as good as it has been i must say

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Well some mixed answers!

To my mind there is not that much change. The central core of the cold anomaly on the Newfoundland coast is little less intense, but then it has spread out just a little more. In my opinion.

The basic -NAO signature is still there too IMO

What is worth noting also is that the nino east based anomalies have now reduced somewhat from a few days ago, following the reduction of the west based anomalies.

Edited November 12, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[johnholmes]

yes I would agree with that Tamara

[osmposm]

Sorry, but I see too much of a difference between the Unisys and NOAA chart.

If you look at the eastern end, the Unisys chart shows an amomoly of about 1.5C the NOAA cart is 2.5C, that's quite a difference in a day, are they using different data sets, Different averages or something else??

There's always a considerable difference between them, even for exactly the same day - and indeed with a third version that I sometimes see posted (but can't find at the moment). This divergence is occasionally mentioned on here - often accompanied by a heartfelt plea for the answer - but as far as I'm aware nobody has ever come up with an definitive statement of why it is.

Stating the bleedin' obvious...Since the charts show anomalies, it is presumably either because they use different datasets for the norm (?different reference years perhaps). Or because the SSTs are measured/processed differently (?satellite/buoy&ship/combination of the two....perhaps different definitions of 'surface'?). Or both!!

So here's the heartfelt plea again: does anyone know why they are so different?

[karyo]

Well some mixed answers!

To my mind there is not that much change. The central core of the cold anomaly on the Newfoundland coast is little less intense, but then it has spread out just a little more. In my opinion.

The basic -NAO signature is still there too IMO

What is worth noting also is that the nino east based anomalies have now reduced somewhat from a few days ago, following the reduction of the west based anomalies.

That's re-assuring Tamara! Especially the bit about the reduction east nino region. I am not an expect on the subject of SSTs but I find very interesting the cooler waters surrounding the nino region. The negative anomaly off the coast of Panama looks impressively intense!

Hopefully all those cooler waters will limit the effects of el nino.

Karyo

Edited November 12, 2009 by karyo

[BrickFielder]

NOAA Base period is 1985 - 1998

CDC Base period is 1982 - 1996

Unisys I think is based on NOAA data but don't know why it is different.

High presure towards northern Scandinavia and greenland currently will be cooling the seas to our north which if the CPC blocking forecasts are anything to go by will not continue to persist.

[Iceberg]

The added problems with SST's is that they use different sats, which take pictures at different times of the day and so have varying amounts of cloud etc, some sat's can see through the cloud, some can't.

There is a very good SST chart which is made up of a variety of sat takes over a number of days, the true SST's won't vary too much over a 3 day period so this tends to be the most accurate.

Different SST maps also run at different resolutions, which with the GS and cold and warm eddies makes a big difference.

On top of that Alot of data is taken by ships and fed into some of the SST charts, so alot of data is taken from the north Atlantic and most days you are lucky to get any ships data from areas such as the ENSO pacific.

Add on top of this the bouy data which is sometimes used and sometimes not and you get a big variety of SST maps.

Unisys IMO is pretty poor as SST charts go.

[osmposm]

Unfortunately, it seems that the negative anomalies off the coast of Newfoundland have decreased considerably since the last time I checked!

Its not looking as good as it has been i must say

To my mind there is not that much change. The central core of the cold anomaly on the Newfoundland coast is little less intense, but then it has spread out just a little more. In my opinion.....

Here's the loop of weekly images since 1st August http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

You can't control it, so it's difficult to get a handle on things - try looking at one small area at a time.

But from it (and from downloading all the different images of the series since July and flipping between them myself) it's clear that this N Atlantic cold anomaly has been expanding/contracting, deepening/lessening AND shifting around as well...so much, in fact, that I'm not sure one can draw any conclusions, except to say that:

(1) there was a much bigger & deeper one there, just north of the Azores, that peaked in intensity around 1st August; (2) it generally lessened, and eased N & W thereafter; (3) it disappeared almost completely around 10 Oct; (4) it re-emerged just off Newfoundland, peaking in intensity ca 31 Oct; and (5) it has since diminished somewhat, but has neither shrunk nor expanded in size.

However, looking at the final three images of the series, it must be said that the negative anomalies in the N Atlantic overall seem to be dropping away, and the positive ones growing...at the moment!

[Gray-Wolf]

As Autumn progresses wouldn't the North Atlantic cool down to the 'anom' level anyway? Unless there is cold water upwelling wouldn't things just 'even out' on there own?

I can see how ,over summer, weather conditions could limit the 'warming' over a stretch of ocean (continuous cloud cover or wind overturning the oceans top layer) but when it's time for the seasonal heat loss wouldn't those influences tend to disappear and surface temps just fall to their 'averages'?

[osmposm]

You've completely lost me there, G-W.

The charts show differences from the (?)mean over the reference period - I can't really see how the seasonal changes would affect the anomaly from the norm at that same time of year. And besides, why have we tended to see such marked postive anomalies in recent years, even in winter? And although negative anomalies are indeed currently waning in the N Atlantic, why are more (& generally greater) positive anomalies showing up - by your reasoning everything should just be drifting down towards average?

Edited November 12, 2009 by osmposm

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Os!

I was refering to the negative anoms we saw over the Azores over this summer and that ,as winter approaches, that type of feature could just fade away as ocean temps around it fell away to it's temp level?

I do agree that +ve anoms, across all ocean basins, do seem to prevail over these last number of years........I have my own (shared?) theory on why that should be!!!

The same with the cold anoms that pop up around the west/NW coast of Greenland each summer!(and in front of the Ross ice shelf in the southern summer)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sorry, but I see too much of a difference between the Unisys and NOAA chart.

The NOAA has very much warm bias and its accuracy IMO is somewhat substandard and taken with a pinch of salt. They have a little previous for that.

BFTP

[Lettucing Gutted]

I am not an expect on the subject of SSTs but I find very interesting the cooler waters surrounding the nino region. The negative anomaly off the coast of Panama looks impressively intense!

Hopefully all those cooler waters will limit the effects of el nino.

Karyo

Its also great that the mid latitude North Pacific still has a -ve PDO profile with relatively warm waters near Asia and cold waters near North America which will also help keep El Nino in check in addition to making the Polar Front Jetstream more amplified.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Edited November 14, 2009 by Craig Evans

[karyo]

Its also great that the mid latitude North Pacific still has a -ve PDO profile with relatively warm waters near Asia and cold waters near North America which will also help keep El Nino in check in addition to making the Polar Front Jetstream more amplified.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Yes Craig, let's hope this situation remains as well as the negative anomaly off the Newfoundland coast.

November is out of question now for any cold weather to develop but let's hope that the core winter months will come up with the goods!

Karyo