White Christmas 2009

[Gavin P]

Yeah, I'm really talking about the period Xmas to New Year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Many eastern parts had a good cold Christmas-New Year period as recently as 2005, though it did not set in until the 27th.

Christmas Day 2001 was widely predicted to be a white one across large areas of the country but I'm guessing that the northerly's onset got delayed slightly because the day itself was not particularly cold as the cold air was only just starting to establish. There was a flurry of wet snow at 7-8am in Cleadon which produced a little sugar coating on concrete surfaces for about five minutes, but that's only a white Christmas if you're following the bookies' definition. For me, a white Christmas is one with significant lying snow at some point during the day (more than 50% cover at the very least), and at Cleadon only 1993 and 1995 achieved that distinction since the 1980s.

Perhaps the most memorable Christmas-New Year cold spell of the "noughties" was that of 2000 when many areas had snow cover starting on Boxing Day and almost the entire country was hit on the 27th/28th and Cleadon had thundersnow early on the 29th. That one had a wonderful atmosphere about it.

My favourite Christmas cold spell since I was born has to be that of 1995, mainly because of its immaculate timing. It started with a spell of snow on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day had frequent heavy blowing snow showers and a covering extending from 4 cm to 8 cm, and there were some exceptional low temperatures after that, with a maximum of only -4C in freezing fog on the 29th.

[Stuart]

fingers crossed

Unfortunately, this morning it seems we are due a Spanish Plume!

.

That a big downgrade there

[willinkent]

Ill be in thailand for xmas this year with temps 28-30c....then sydney in oz for new years with a few shrimps on the barbie and a stubbie in hand..... hope it snows loads over here as im away for three months and will miss it all.... most on this board would love it too...will be in vancouver though for winter olympics.....yeah.... if models are right mite see something on chilly side in november/ early december b4 i go.....

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest im not optimistic about a white christmas infact id say theres a 0% chance just gotta bad feeling where see a mild zonal winter.

[londonsnow]

odds on a green christmas, unless you're carving the turkey in cairngorm. but let's face it, it's september. do we have any idea what the weather will be like on hallow'een let alone christmas?

[Gavin P]

The last time snow fell here on Christmas Day was 1970!

[Cheese Rice]

It snowed a couple of years ago here, we got one shower in the morning that gave a dusting, but i dont think a crappy 5minute snow shower counts (to me) as a white christmas.

[Fozfoster]

The last time snow fell here on Christmas Day was 1970!

Hay, God knows when it last snowed here on christmas day

[J10]

In 2001 and 2004, there were white out conditions on Christmas evening both with several inches of snow.

However, how any forecast in September can say a 45% chance of a White Christmas, given past records is beyond me.

[LomondSnowstorm]

In 2001 and 2004, there were white out conditions on Christmas evening both with several inches of snow.

However, how any forecast in September can say a 45% chance of a White Christmas, given past records is beyond me.

I suppose it depends on how you classify a 'white christmas.' Because the likelyhood of a) an inch of snow in many placesb)a flake of snow falling on the bbc hq in London or c) a flake of snow falling anywhere on british soil (or anything in between).

If the forecast is for the latter, then I suspect the odds of a flake of snow falling anywhere in the UK on the 25th of December (certainly if you include Shetland) is arguably 45%. However, it's still ridiculous to even attempt to forecast the chances of snow this early, because the only thing that the forecast can tell us is either the 'default' chance of a white christmas in any year or very low probability 'guesses.' It's still fun to watch the random fluctuation in chances from update to update and try to make sense of it though.

[Stuart]

No one have posted Chart for Christmas day today

[bazookabob]

No one have posted Chart for Christmas day today

That must mean its a shocking southwesterly with drizzle for all! I'm sure when there's a gale force northeasterly shown then someone will post it! Probably tomorrow!

bb

[andy_leics22]

Maybe we should get Derren Brown to predict whether it will be or not.. :lol:

[Nick L]

Maybe we should get Derren Brown to predict whether it will be or not..

Don't get me started on Derren bloody Brown...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Christmas Days with fairly widespread lowland snow cover in the last 60 years:

2004- snow showers in the north and west, produced a white Christmas for many parts of Scotland, Ireland, NW England, Wales and parts of the SW:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120041225.gif

2001- snow cover was restricted initially but as the wind backed NNW'ly late in the day, many snow showers came into western areas, N & W Scotland, NW England, Wales, N Ireland, giving accumulations:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120011225.gif

1995- a polar low gave a fair amount of snow over most of Scotland and penetrated to parts of northern England, there were also snow showers near north-facing coasts, probably the most widespread Christmas snow cover that we've seen since 1981:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951225.gif

1993- some wet snowfalls in the west early on, heavy sleet & snow showers spread into some eastern areas during the afternoon also:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119931225.gif

1981- most places stayed dry on the big day itself but snow cover was very widespread from earlier falls:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811225.gif

1970- snow showers in the S and E with accumulations for many, but many parts of the N and W missed out:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1970/Rrea00119701225.gif

1968- a mild wet day in the SW but many northern and eastern areas saw rain unexpectedly stall against Arctic air, turning to snow and giving a white Christmas:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1968/Rrea00119681225.gif

1964- snow showers down the eastern side of Britain, but as usual for a 36-hour northerly, most inland parts stayed dry:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1964/Rrea00119641225.gif

1962- area of sleet & snow moved south, giving a white Christmas to some, e.g. Glasgow:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621225.gif

1956- a frontal battleground between mild Atlantic air and continental easterlies, with a white Christmas for many:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119561225.gif

1950- wintry showers in places from a NE'ly on the big day, with many places snow-covered from earlier snowfalls:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1950/Rrea00119501225.gif

Perhaps the best example of a widespread white Christmas in the 20th century was in 1938 when easterly and north-easterly winds brought widespread snowfalls during the week leading up to Christmas, though a bit like 1981 I don't think much if any snow fell widely on the big day itself. I'm not very familiar with the other early examples (1927 for instance).

[Stuart]

I see the Ukasf start of there white christams Forecast Today

[Gavin P]

Thanks TWS.

1968 was also a White Xmas here. So that was two in three years (68 and 70) and then nothing since.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2004 my best, bout 1 inch in evening, snow showers also in afternoon, in 2001 i had an evening covering

[The watcher]

I wonder what the bookie odds are on one now, could be worth a £5 punt.

I think we'll have our first widespread cold/snowy event in late October, Early November....that has been the form last 2 years.

Christmas, well we are due a little surprise, either a whiteout or a blowout.

[snow showers]

There hasn't been a white xmas just north of Glasgow for a few years in the Dumgoyne, Campsie Fells area. Last good white xmas I clearly remember were as TWS mentioned 2004, 2000 and I think 2005. There has been none since. Here's hoping for a change this year. The past few years festive periods have been high pressure dominated with nothing but mist and fog or frost and crisp sunshine.

[A-Dizzle]

Positive weather solutions are saying that there's a 43% chance of a white christmas. They aslo say that there could be a "big freeze" again. I think its way to early to tell yet!

[Nick L]

Positive weather solutions are saying that there's a 43% chance of a white christmas. They aslo say that there could be a "big freeze" again. I think its way to early to tell yet!

I would say it is 43.56% personally . Why put pointlessly precise predictions over 3 months out?!

[cheshire snow]

Positive weather solutions are saying that there's a 43% chance of a white christmas. They aslo say that there could be a "big freeze" again. I think its way to early to tell yet!

So that will mean a green christmas and a mild new year Lol

Cannot for the life of me think of my last white christmas here

Come to think of it cannot remember the last time we even got a decent

Covering here.

Hopefully this will be the year for everyone to see a good sustained snowy spell

How i would love to come on this forum and see it in melt down.

c.s

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The third forecast update for Christmas 2009 again reduces the forecast probability of a white Christmas for the UK, but continues to suggest a higher than average probability of snow. At the moment we think there is a possibility of the UK being covered by a cold north westerly airstream with pressure low to the east of the country. This would suggest that northern and western areas would be most likely to see sleet or snow showers.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 25% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx