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Somerset Squall

Tropical Depression 02C

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Invest 95C, just east of the dateline in the Central Pacific, has become sufficently organised to be classified a tropical depression. 02C is very small and could be prone to fluctuations in intensity, both up and down. 02C is currently being steered westwards along the southern periphery of a ridge to the north, and this is likely to take 02C into the western Pacific later today. It's touch and go whether the depression will receive a name for the Central Pacific list of the West Pacific list- we shall see. After 02C crosses into the west Pacific, models are not in good agreement about where the depression goes. A break in the ridge is already in place which should force 02C northwards, though timing is uncertain. The weaker 02C stays, the less likely it will feel the weakness. I think the track forecast could chop and change as time goes on so we will have to wait and see.

Intensity wise, CIMSS windshear charts show favourable levels of shear over 02C for the next two days. Thereafter, as 02C moves north, shear will increase. This could rapidly weaken the small depression/storm beyond this time frame. Until then, 02C has opportunity to intensify, perhaps higher than the 40kt peak CPHC officially forecast.

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INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 179.1W 30 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 179.4E 35 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.2N 177.6E 35 KT

36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 175.9E 35 KT

48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.6N 174.9E 35 KT

72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.2N 174.2E 35 KT

96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 175.2E 35 KT

120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.8N 176.4E 35 KT



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Well, shear increased much sooner than expected, and has torn 02C apart, removing the majority of the convection away from the centre. 02C is now in the West Pacific, and is slowly moving westwards. A northward turn is unlikely now as 02C will be too weak to respond to the weakness in the ridge to the north. 02C has been declared a remnant low and will only re-generate if shear eases; at the moment it looks more likely the remnant low will just be destroyed.

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