Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

damianslaw

Met Office Autumn Outlook

Recommended Posts

Surprised how no-one has set up a new topic on the Met Offices autumn outlook released today, or may be not, as it is a preety woeful attempt, they can't decide on levels of rainfall, they don't even attempt to make any hints, what is going on with the Met - case of suffering the embarrassment of recent seasonal forecasts I guess, I've lost all confidence in there seasonal outlooks now.

As for temps well they just use the same record every time it seems temperatures will be above the norm ... zzzz... watch this one go down the pan like all the others..I'm waiting for them to do a press release soon and mention we could be in for an 'indian summer'.. they do it every year.. you can say we ''could be in" for any type of weather at any time of year, why do they bother.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprised how no-one has set up a new topic on the Met Offices autumn outlook released today, or may be not, as it is a preety woeful attempt, they can't decide on levels of rainfall, they don't even attempt to make any hints, what is going on with the Met - case of suffering the embarrassment of recent seasonal forecasts I guess, I've lost all confidence in there seasonal outlooks now.

As for temps well they just use the same record every time it seems temperatures will be above the norm ... zzzz... watch this one go down the pan like all the others..I'm waiting for them to do a press release soon and mention we could be in for an 'indian summer'.. they do it every year.. you can say we ''could be in" for any type of weather at any time of year, why do they bother.

Aye that would be due to the AGW bias they factor in! Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but the MetO's LRF, have become a poor mans Piers Corbyn forecasts! Maybe it's time to put this baby ( LRF ) to bed, or come up with some new buzz words to sex it up. Any one got some suggestions? rolleyes.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SC its you that sounds like a broken record

I have lost count of the number of times I've not only told you but tried to explain that they do NOT factor in AGW.

Forecasts at T+24 or T+3 months are done based on the data available.

The whole world knows its now, on average, warmer than it was 150 years ago but that is all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well after a fairly successful summer forecast for most apart from the stupid media release you got say it's a vague forecast for Autumn. I wonder if they'll be a silly media release this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprised how no-one has set up a new topic on the Met Offices autumn outlook released today, or may be not, as it is a preety woeful attempt, they can't decide on levels of rainfall, they don't even attempt to make any hints, what is going on with the Met - case of suffering the embarrassment of recent seasonal forecasts I guess, I've lost all confidence in there seasonal outlooks now.

As for temps well they just use the same record every time it seems temperatures will be above the norm ... zzzz... watch this one go down the pan like all the others..I'm waiting for them to do a press release soon and mention we could be in for an 'indian summer'.. they do it every year.. you can say we ''could be in" for any type of weather at any time of year, why do they bother.

why is it a woeful attempt?? is it because it obviously dosnt tally with some peoples thinking on here then it must be wrong?..i think the met office do ok and they are never too far of the mark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...and it would also be useful to have a link to the forecast :unknw:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/autumn.html

With the freedom of information act that some have harped on about in other threads, why dont you just ask them if AGW is accounted in their seasonal forecasts, rather than assume?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

...and it would also be useful to have a link to the forecast doh.gif

http://www.metoffice...009/autumn.html

With the freedom of information act that some have harped on about in other threads, why dont you just ask them if AGW is accounted in their seasonal forecasts, rather than assume?

Not sure it matters whether there is a link or not - people can find it easily enough can't they?rolleyes.gif

Addressed more generally:

It IS, frankly, a very fair assumption that AGW is seeping into seasonal forecasting. I have already had a lot of stick for 'daring' to make the same assumption but like SC refuse to be browbeaten into making a u-turn on this opinion. Unless there is denial from the Met Office AND they remove their clause that seasonal forecasting takes climate movements into consideration then there is nothing more to lose by holding the same line in the meantime.

There is fair agreement that there has been a warming trend in the climate (ok flatlined last ten years)....tick

The Met Office clearly state that their seasonal forecasting combines BOTH short and medium term data available BUT also considers changes within climate trends.....tick

That cannnot be denied - it has been linked/pasted on here often enough by some members.

It is NOT therefore unreasonable to conclude that based on the fact that the assumed forcing on the climate as emphatically determined by the METO to be through man made activity - that the Met Office ARE factoring in AGW as the climate change mechanism (they clearly point to) into their seasonal forecasting.

Sorry to have to resort to bold type and underlines but I am amazed that people continue to contest this when it is a perfectly reasonable deduction that this appears to be happening. If they were to deny this then they should withdraw their clause about using climate change trends in seasonal forecasting on their web page - because it is very misleading and contradictory. Or - they should clearly state that the climate change mechanism they are using is AGW. It can't be both ways.

The Met Office has always been a world leader in terms of both its service and presentation. Short term forecasting (up to about two weeks) remains imo of an excellent quality - the daily updates are very consistent and reflect changes in the computer models very clearly.

Unfortunately also imo, their full-on sign up to AGW and slow invasion of this prevading their longer term forecasting is starting to erode the quality of their seasonal predictions. If they were just sticking to the data available as insisted by some, then I am sure we would be seeing a greater accuracy in this aspect of forecasting than is becomg apparent. yes, it is still an area that needs advances and it is understandable that this area of forecasting is still an evolving process. That is perfectly acceptable - the fad with AGW isn't.

And before anyone suggests it, the same principle would occur if we had assumed global cooling. If there is so much uncertainty (which there undoubtedly is) within climate science and the nature of all the feedbacks in play, and the IPCC have so far struggled in terms of their predictions so far - then lets 'out' climate change altogether from seasonal forecasting.

Whether the allegations about AGW are true or not (and as described it looks like they are) the reference to climate change trends in seasonal forecasting should be removed anyway. They should indeed be just using short and medium term data available..and nothing else.

In terms of the actual autumn forecast itself, based on the above, it does seem worthy with taking with a pinch of salt. I would much prefer to stick to reading various opinions more widely in terms of the months ahead and see where we go.

The Met Office will continue to be a much valued source of reference for the short term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not far of the mark with there summer forecast errrrr you sure?.

i think its been a pretty depressing summer over all so if you add the short hot spell in june and forget the rest then yeah good spell of weather lol.8)

as for autumn forecast id thought its harder to put together a little like spring.

but ive got nothing against there shorter term forecast which is pretty good there lrf seems like guess work to me with the added above average temps always in there for good measure this makes me think there convinced that cooler than average cant happen we will see maybe there come unstuck again.:o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me give you horse a carrot Tamara so that perhaps you can climb off for a while.

Perhaps I wont try and be useful in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Errr How the seasonal forecast is done.

http://www.metoffice...onal/index.html nothing about AGW in there.

You haven't read what my post actually says thensmile.gif

Just as an example this relates to the winter forecast as taken from their website:

This first assessment of prospects for Winter 2009/10 is based on statistical forecasting methods. These statistical predictions are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on European winter weather, and changing expectations for winter due to the warming climate. In September the forecast will be updated by including output from global numerical forecast models. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

Now their reasoning for the warming climate is through AGW forcing is it not?

Let me give you horse a carrot Tamara so that perhaps you can climb off for a while.

Perhaps I wont try and be useful in the future.

I think it was the use of the head thumping smilie, that you used, that made it seem like you were not trying to be useful

In terms of my high horse, as you think, then genuinely not at all. Just trying to be as clear as I can. I find that I have to resort to doing that very frequently so as not be misunderstood. Not my choice I can assure you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually I agree it's a poor forecast. Leaving the AGW and Piers comments aside(sorry but I feel that's the best place for them).

They need to acknowledge that not everybody is stupid, the people most likely to log on and look at the seasonal forecast on the MET Office site are likely to have some knowledge of the weather.

The NCEP CPC charts for the US show how this can be done, with probabilities etc attached and probably a month by month breakdown should be given. It doesn't require a lot of work, particularly as ECM it ran out to 28 days anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Actually I agree it's a poor forecast.

They need to acknowledge that not everybody is stupid, the people most likely to log on and look at the seasonal forecast on the MET Office site are likely to have some knowledge of the weather.

The NCEP CPC charts for the US show how this can be done, with probabilities etc attached and probably a month by month breakdown should be given. It doesn't require a lot of work, particularly as ECM it ran out to 28 days anyway.

I very much agree with that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I very much agree with that

Me too, Tamara...Autumn's a'coming? :o

The first mountain-snow is forecast for Scotland today.. 8)

But, the AGW-bias thingy being built-in is really a red herring. Statistical/empirical expectations based on recent data need only be simply: the climate has warmed because it has - whatever the reason? Even if all the warming was natural, its statiscal effects would still be there...8)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Me too, Tamara...Autumn's a'coming? drinks.gif

Season of mist and mellow fruitfulness!

But this year!?unknw.gifbiggrin.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually I agree it's a poor forecast. Leaving the AGW and Piers comments aside(sorry but I feel that's the best place for them).

They need to acknowledge that not everybody is stupid, the people most likely to log on and look at the seasonal forecast on the MET Office site are likely to have some knowledge of the weather.

The NCEP CPC charts for the US show how this can be done, with probabilities etc attached and probably a month by month breakdown should be given. It doesn't require a lot of work, particularly as ECM it ran out to 28 days anyway.

Indeed! That's why I find the Net Weather seasonal forecasts a lot more useful as they break down the season into separate months. Risky but worthwhile as it gives a better picture of what can be expected.

Karyo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

yes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tamara-you persist in being unable to see the wood for the trees and I'm a touch surprised at how you get A+B=C when you wish it to show that but at other times A+B=anything but C according to you.

You really should write to them and give your views and quote their quotes which you have used and then CAREFULLY read their reply.

The earth has warmed so of course data today is different from what it was 100 years ago-end of story-there is no hidden GW let alone AGW data in their base line for doing a 1 day 1 month or 3 month forecast but I suppose I am again wasting my fingers typing this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Tamara-you persist in being unable to see the wood for the trees and I'm a touch surprised at how you get A+B=C when you wish it to show that but at other times A+B=anything but C according to you.

You really should write to them and give your views and quote their quotes which you have used and then CAREFULLY read their reply.

The earth has warmed so of course data today is different from what it was 100 years ago-end of story-there is no hidden GW let alone AGW data in their base line for doing a 1 day 1 month or 3 month forecast but I suppose I am again wasting my fingers typing this.

This is not I can assure you a scattergun pique type 'argument'.

Yes, I certainly do believe that A+B does equal C in this case. Each situation is down to personal judgement on its merits. So if another situation is deemed fit for an A+B = a different letter to C then,yes, I would say so. There is no consistent rule to apply for these matters. Science doesn't work in straight lines as you will know.

In terms of writing to the Met Office, well actually, if you do want to know, I did e-mail them a time ago.

In reply they did underline their belief in AGW and I was given a repeated passage from their climate area estolling the virtues of the IPCC report etc. I am perplexed that there is any argument that their beliefs are derived from AGW hypothesis. Surely that is obvious?huh.gif

No-one has said it is a hidden agenda. I haven'tcc_confused.gif It is just apparent that the climate change element that constitutes their seasonal forecast, which is clearly stated by them, is derived from the forcing that they believe drives climate change...which, they beleive, is AGW.

Or what else is it then?

Sorry to keep repeating myself - but if I keep being asked this question I can only give the answer I believe.

I'm really not sure that my posts are being read propely

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a different topic, are the maps of the globe, indicating probable above or below-average temperatures and rainfall, still available? Expression of probabilities was always one of the positive hallmarks of Met Office seasonal forecasts IMO.

Unfortunately the latest changes to the seasonal forecasts, including that infamous "barbecue summer" comment, strike me as following the BBC's "dumbing down" lead, being directed at those with little or no understanding/interest at the expense of those with more than that. I don't completely blame them for being vague- if the computer LRF models give mixed signals then fair enough. But there has certainly been a drain on the amount of background information provided, and all in all it strikes me as a step backwards from a few years ago, including that excellent forecast for winter 2005/06.

In terms of writing to the Met Office, well actually, if you do want to know, I did e-mail them a time ago.

In reply they did underline their belief in AGW and I was given a repeated passage from their climate area estolling the virtues of the IPCC report etc. I am perplexed that there is any argument that their beliefs are derived from AGW hypothesis. Surely that is obvious?Posted Image

Was this email specifically relating to their long-range forecasts or relating to their belief in AGW? Nobody denies that the Met Office takes a strong pro-AGW stance, the argument is over whether or not this makes a difference to their seasonal forecasts (and the evidence, I'm afraid, remains strongly on the contrary).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

I remember the forecast for winter 05/06. It was indeed a very good and accurate forecast, and I said so at the end of the winter I seem to remember.

But for me, without going into my own repeated details, and also for the other reasons you and Iceberg have given, it has all gone steadily downhill wrt seasonal forecasting ever since

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll ignore your turning the A+B=C etc on its head.

turning to two of your paragraphs

In reply they did underline their belief in AGW and I was given a repeated passage from their climate area estolling the virtues of the IPCC report etc. I am perplexed that there is any argument that their beliefs are derived from AGW hypothesis. Surely that is obvious?huh.gif

No-one has said it is a hidden agenda. I haven'tcc_confused.gif It is just apparent that the climate change element that constitutes their seasonal forecast, which is clearly stated by them, is derived from the forcing that they believe drives climate change...which, they beleive, is AGW.

First Tamara you are confusing what their statement said with what they actually do, they do not clearly state that climate change etc.

The first paragraph has NOTHING whatever to do with their daily to seasonal forecasts, nothing at all. It is simply a statement that explains the position of the Hadley, note, Hadley Centre in the IPCC report.

The forecasts prepared by the operational branch of the Met O for daily, weekly, and I am fairly certain, their seasonal forecasts is not even in the same building as the Hadley centre. I doubt if the Op forecasters even know most of the Hadley team unless they happen to live close to one another and perhaps use the same pub.

The two branches, however odd it may seem to some on this forum, are quite separate, one deals with climatology the other deals with meteorology, Ops forecasting is based solely on what the atmosphere is showing when the button is pressed to start the computer run-that is meteorology.

Climatology is quite different it is attempting to understand what long term changes in meteorology are and why and what may happen in the future.

Please believe me, having spent 40 years in the Met O that there is no GW/AGW bias in their Ops forecasting, be it for 24 hours ahead or 3 months ahead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The forecasts prepared by the operational branch of the Met O for daily, weekly, and I am fairly certain, their seasonal forecasts is not even in the same building as the Hadley centre. I doubt if the Op forecasters even know most of the Hadley team unless they happen to live close to one another and perhaps use the same pub.

Further to your post, I can confirm, having spent six months working at the Hadley Centre, that the seasonal forecasting is not carried out by the Hadley team and I got the strong impression that it is part of the taskload of the operational centre.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

On a different topic, are the maps of the globe, indicating probable above or below-average temperatures and rainfall, still available? Expression of probabilities was always one of the positive hallmarks of Met Office seasonal forecasts IMO.

Unfortunately the latest changes to the seasonal forecasts, including that infamous "barbecue summer" comment, strike me as following the BBC's "dumbing down" lead, being directed at those with little or no understanding/interest at the expense of those with more than that. I don't completely blame them for being vague- if the computer LRF models give mixed signals then fair enough. But there has certainly been a drain on the amount of background information provided, and all in all it strikes me as a step backwards from a few years ago, including that excellent forecast for winter 2005/06.

Was this email specifically relating to their long-range forecasts or relating to their belief in AGW? Nobody denies that the Met Office takes a strong pro-AGW stance, the argument is over whether or not this makes a difference to their seasonal forecasts (and the evidence, I'm afraid, remains strongly on the contrary).

Both, and over a course of two occasions.

Interesting that you have slightly moved the emphasis there to just whether it makes any difference or not. The original 'beef' I was receiving in replies was also that there was no connection at all between AGW and the Met Office in terms of underlying their forecast. There is a subtle but distinct difference.

Although i think personally it has made a difference to their forecasting increasingly of late the last couple of years, I am prepared to consider this pov much more than over their background stance to the forecasting, which imo is definitely underpinned by AGW. IMO they have blurred the edges between seasonal forecasting and climate change. Or perhaps it is more accurate to say that climate change has got too blurred with long term forecasting.

Which should both be different. A seasonal forecast should just be a long term forecast.

So, once again, I would ask the question - why do they allude to climate warming (which is suppoded to be apart from long term forecasting) on their website in respect of seasonal forecasting??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×