2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

[Cat 5]

Well done Roger - only 1 day out.

The average prediction for the date the first named storm was formed was 2nd June only 2 days out! Well done everyone.

[kold weather]

Very interesting indeed Roger I think thats pretty logical conclusion to come too.

By the way I wouldn't be at all surprised to see our next system form before the next 7 days are gone somewhere in the BoC, interesting pattern has set-up with regards to the placement of the monsoon trough, bang over central America but stretching both into the EPAC and also W.Caribbean, which is why both Alma and Arthur has formed, expect TD 2E in the EPAC from it soon enough!

[Cookie]

cool. thanks kold

[kold weather]

Looks like last longer range forecast busted, the monsoon trough has weakened now and the MJO phase has turned unfavorably against tropical development in the Atlantic for a little while. Given high shear levels likely will stay in the Caribbean I perosnsally don't see anything developing till probably July now maybe even longer but I'm not prepared to stick my neck out that sort of distance.

IMO don't expect anything major (above TS status) till mid August, then we could see 3-4 major hurricanes in a 3-4 week period...

[Cookie]

you're joking!

well thanks for the update!

[kold weather]

Well in recent seasons we've been sort of blessed by the amount of early activity but its not at all uncommon for the season not to get going till August, there are so many examples.

2004 didn't have Alex till July 31st, that season had so many major hits on Florida (4 major hurricanes I believe), 1999 didn't have Bret till the 18th of August yet mananged 5 cat-4 hurricanes including Floyd. 1998 didn't see Bonnie till the 19th of August yet it had 10 hurricanes and also Mitch one of the top 10 strongest hurricanes ever.

1969 didn't have its 2nd named storm till 6th of August yet that season still had 19 tropical storms, 12 became hurricanes (record before 2005!) and also Camille. 1950 didn't get Alma till 12th of August yet had an explosive season after that with an estimated 8 major hurricanes (though 1 or 2 of those may have been over-estimated.) as well as King, a powerful cat-5. 1961 didn't get Betsey till SEPTEMBER 2nd yet that season ended up with 7 major hurricanes as well as 2 category-5 which were the powerful Carla which hit Texas and was huge (biggest record Atlantic hurricane ever, entire Texas coast felt effects.) and also Hattie.

so as you can see late starting seasons can be just as active and actually seem to show a heightened risk of cat-5 hurricanes from what I can gather...something to look a little more about.

Edited June 14, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

thanks for explaining mate, so it ain't all doom and gloom!

[Cookie]

not much chit chat eh guys?

[Roger J Smith]

Signs of a big season perhaps? Bertha one of the longest lived tropical cyclones in a while, and now we have a third named storm, Christobal, looking to give New England and Nova Scotia a soaking. There's yet another system in the Caribbean that they have investigated twice and decided not to classify yet, but it could get a number or a name at any moment. And we are just barely into mid-July. This seems to be on pace for a fairly high total number of storms with the upper set-up at the very least not looking prohibitive for frequent storm development. And in my research, the better dynamics are likely to arrive in August and continue to October, so I feel quite optimistic about 15 named storms at least, possibly 18 or more.

[kold weather]

Agreed I thought most of the activity would kick off later then this but we've had a very busy start to the seasomn, everything points to a 1995 type season IMO, the Cape Verde season is looking like being very, maybe even exceptionally busy this season.

[Roger J Smith]

Well we're now up to four with Dolly gaining status as a TS this morning in the Caribbean, heading into the Yucatan and then possibly on through the Gulf towards south Texas?

Greek letters before we're done, perhaps?

[Cookie]

has that happened before? did it in 2005?

[kold weather]

Yep. I don't think it will get that far in but with 4 storms before the end of July odds favour 16+ storms and possibly closer to 18-20 mark like 1995.

[Somerset Squall]

The way things are going I may have underestimated a bit for the comp!

[Roger J Smith]

Hey, now we're six ahead of 1992, the year of Andrew.

Not that much to show for it yet though.

[Somerset Squall]

Hey, now we're six ahead of 1992, the year of Andrew.

Not that much to show for it yet though.

That is changing now!

May I be right with the guess of Ike for strongest storm? It's still 5kts weaker than Gustav- whoever guessed Gustav may pick up some points unless we get a cat 5.

Edited September 4, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

Ike is stornger then Gustav, the NHC uses the pressure in ranking systems therefore Ike comes out on top as it had a lower pressure at peak...

[Cookie]

thanks for explaining that KOLD