The disappearing Winters

[Yeti]

You have a good point here PIT. Year upon year, winter is the one thing that you just know will be rubbish. Think how many non-events we've had. I make it three days in total this winter of proper wintry weather with two lots of lying snow - the secong giving a grand total of half a centimetre, the best of the winter. On the Stray in the centre of town the crocuses are out and the snowdrops are middle aged at best.

Wordworth wrote "Daffodils" after having seen a collection bursting into life. He wrote it in late April.

[wysiwyg]

You have a good point here PIT. Year upon year, winter is the one thing that you just know will be rubbish. Think how many non-events we've had. I make it three days in total this winter of proper wintry weather with two lots of lying snow - the secong giving a grand total of half a centimetre, the best of the winter. On the Stray in the centre of town the crocuses are out and the snowdrops are middle aged at best.

Wordworth wrote "Daffodils" after having seen a collection bursting into life. He wrote it in late April.

Winters have been a bit rubbish in recent times but I always think that using flora as an indicator in modern times can be a little misleading sometimes. Snowdrops are meant to flower in winter, crocus in february and natural wild daffodils in march/april. Advances in hybridisation driven mainly by commercial growers have lead to all year round demand for flowers in our supermarkets and these tough hybrids have made it to our gardens also as a consequence. I was in wordsworth country a couple of weekends ago and whilst the daffs were poking through I didn't see many flowers (not that I was really looking like ). I dare say there will be a few now though as we have had a very mild run since the end of december.

Edited February 8, 2008 by wysiwyg

[Norrance]

Having read through this thread I thought that I would obtain the snow lying figures for my home area in Perthshire and the area I live in now just West of Dundee and compare 10 year averages of snow lying days for the last thirty years as I think this part of the world has been hit badly by the changes since the eighties. I have taken official readings from Faskally, near Pitlochry at 94 Mtrs asl in Highland Perthshire for the inland readings. I lived a few miles away but the records are fairly similar to my own. [My own records had more snow days but in retrospect I didn't adhere strictly to the >50% cover on open ground at 0900 hrs and I lived in as North facing side of the valley.] The Dundee records are from Mylnefield at 35 mtrs asl to the West of Dundee. Their recent records mirror my own here almost exactly in recent years.

Snow lying at 0900 hrs. >50% open ground covered.

Days at Days at

Year Mylnefield Faskally Year Mylnefield Faskally Year Mylnefield Faskally

1977 14 22 1987 15 31 1997 10 13

1978 27 39 1988 0 23 1998 7 20

1979 30 70 1989 2 25 1999 2 33

1980 14 43 1990 7 26 2000 3 17

1981 16 56 1991 22 29 2001 12 30

1982 15 32 1992 4 20 2002 0 19

1983 7 31 1993 22 42 2003 3 15

1984 23 36 1994 10 45 2004 10 21

1985 11 42 1995 12 39 2005 12 20

1986 30 33 1996 18 31 2006 3 12

10 yr av 18.7 days 40.4 days 10 yr av. 11.2 31.1 10 yr Av. 6.2 20.0

This would show that in Dundee snow lying days are now 1/3 of those in the eighties and the last two years 2007 and 2008 so far are even worse though official records are not yet available. Inland it is not quite so bad but still only 50% of the cover there was two decades ago but this year so far has been quite good. Yet despite that fall in snow lying days I doubt there are many places under 100 mtrs in the UK that have averaged 20 snow lying days over the last ten years.

I think that it shows how even a small rise can have a large effect on snow cover where the temps are marginal such as in areas of low ground near the coast.

It also makes me think that I was extremely lucky as a snow fan at being brought up in a snowy area in a relatively snowy era and that sledging and learning to ski in local hills were not seen as something special.

Sorry I am no good at tables. :lol:

Edited February 8, 2008 by Norrance

[snowray]

I am not by any means the most passionate of gardeners but the daffs have been in full bloom here since last week...Also friends who are keen gardeners and older and wiser than myself tell me that they have just done a second cutting of their lawn in South Kent today since it is growing so fast, ridiculous, shouldn't even be the 1st cutting yer. Many plants are coming up or flowering months in advance and plants that should have died off in the winter have survived, so far. Also the number of bugs that are around already is quite alarming. No snow so far and hardly any frost, (there were one or two frosts back in Dec).

Edited February 9, 2008 by snowray

[wysiwyg]

I am not by any means the most passionate of gardeners but the daffs have been in full bloom here since last week...Also friends who are keen gardeners and older and wiser than myself tell me that they have just done a second cutting of their lawn in South Kent today since it is growing so fast, ridiculous, shouldn't even be the 1st cutting yer. Many plants are coming up or flowering months in advance and plants that should have died off in the winter have survived, so far. Also the number of bugs that are around already is quite alarming. No snow so far and hardly any frost, (there were one or two frosts back in Dec).

Yes they cut the grass yesterday outside my flat although it was quite funny when they got the mower stuck in the muddy patch at the bottom of the hill. And my dad has already cut his this year although my parents do live in an unusually sheltered area and have a lot of tree cover over the garden. I think the lack of frosts is certainly a significant driver for plants, shrubs and trees not dying back and indeed flowering early.

[chionomaniac]

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

Here is an interesting site detailing how snowy winters have been since 1875. We have not had a very snowy winter since 1978/79 and nothing above average for over 10 years.

c

[snowray]

Yes they cut the grass yesterday outside my flat although it was quite funny when they got the mower stuck in the muddy patch at the bottom of the hill. And my dad has already cut his this year although my parents do live in an unusually sheltered area and have a lot of tree cover over the garden. I think the lack of frosts is certainly a significant driver for plants, shrubs and trees not dying back and indeed flowering early.

I think that it would be interesting to analyze cold (frosty and snowy) periods that occured in other periods of mild Winters such as the 20s, ie, did they have day after day of mild with the odd days cold blip, and compare this with our climate since 2000. Was it the case that even though these Winters where mild as a whole they also had one or two periods of colder or a very cold spell of Weather lasting longer than 24 hours. One could even extend the period from Nov-March to incluse Early/late Winters and count the number of events that had say, more than 2 days of lying snow or 2 consecutive nights with a ground frost, with a points system such as 1 point per event, 2 points if if the cold snap lasted longer than 2 days etc. Problem is you would nead a computer the size of Gfs to work that lot out.... :lol:

[Norrance]

Looked at my post from last night and without the benefit of a few large glasses of wine I see the figures quoted just look a bit of a mess. What I was trying to show was how much lying snow has reduced over the last couple of decades.

In the 10 years from 1977/86 my local reporting station Mylnefield had an average of 18 days per year snow lying. This dropped to 11 in the following 10 years and to only 6 in the ten years to 2006, 1/3rd of the first figure.

In my home area the station at Faskally reported 40 days of snow lying per year in the ten years to 1986. This dropped to 31 in the next ten years and down to 20 in the ten to 2006, thus halving in the period.

Incidentally even with this drop I doubt if there are many low level stations [94 mtrs asl] under 100 mtrs that report as many snow lying days.

Anyone know of any?

[snowray]

Looked at my post from last night and without the benefit of a few large glasses of wine I see the figures quoted just look a bit of a mess. What I was trying to show was how much lying snow has reduced over the last couple of decades.

In the 10 years from 1977/86 my local reporting station Mylnefield had an average of 18 days per year snow lying. This dropped to 11 in the following 10 years and to only 6 in the ten years to 2006, 1/3rd of the first figure.

In my home area the station at Faskally reported 40 days of snow lying per year in the ten years to 1986. This dropped to 31 in the next ten years and down to 20 in the ten to 2006, thus halving in the period.

Incidentally even with this drop I doubt if there are many low level stations [94 mtrs asl] under 100 mtrs that report as many snow lying days.

Anyone know of any?

Can you check if there were any other 10 year periods though (how far back do records go?) that had such low occurances of lying snow?

[Norrance]

Can you check if there were any other 10 year periods though (how far back do records go?) that had such low occurances of lying snow?

Both the stations I quoted have records going back several decades but I only have figures from the mid seventies. There are some with records going back a long way, some only recently and others that are no longer in existence. Unfortunately snow lying and falling stats are not published as a matter of course by the Met Office and can be quite difficult to get hold of. I have found generally there are more stats up here on the internet as there have been many surveys done for the Scottish Office, Executive and Local Authorities. However if you e-mail the met o from the link in their web site I have found that they are very helpful in providing information about snow as long as it is not fto be used for commercial purposes.

In general the early to mid seventies were not snowy and there were a lot of mild and less snowy winters between the wars earlier last century.

[swfc]

Well i cant remember a winter so far only giving a couple of hours of lying snow on one day. .Up to now thats the total for my area in sheffield .

[snowray]

Both the stations I quoted have records going back several decades but I only have figures from the mid seventies. There are some with records going back a long way, some only recently and others that are no longer in existence. Unfortunately snow lying and falling stats are not published as a matter of course by the Met Office and can be quite difficult to get hold of. I have found generally there are more stats up here on the internet as there have been many surveys done for the Scottish Office, Executive and Local Authorities. However if you e-mail the met o from the link in their web site I have found that they are very helpful in providing information about snow as long as it is not fto be used for commercial purposes.

In general the early to mid seventies were not snowy and there were a lot of mild and less snowy winters between the wars earlier last century.

Interesting, Might just try emailing the Met Office and see what response I get. Cheers.

Edit: By the way just got some pictures sent to my phone from gardens around Romney in South Kent proving that even the Fushias are in bloom down there, thought they were a June thing?

Edited February 9, 2008 by snowray

[ribster]

I think that it would be interesting to analyze cold (frosty and snowy) periods that occured in other periods of mild Winters such as the 20s, ie, did they have day after day of mild with the odd days cold blip, and compare this with our climate since 2000. Was it the case that even though these Winters where mild as a whole they also had one or two periods of colder or a very cold spell of Weather lasting longer than 24 hours. One could even extend the period from Nov-March to incluse Early/late Winters and count the number of events that had say, more than 2 days of lying snow or 2 consecutive nights with a ground frost, with a points system such as 1 point per event, 2 points if if the cold snap lasted longer than 2 days etc. Problem is you would nead a computer the size of Gfs to work that lot out....

As with my earlier post, I would be interested in going further back than that, i.e. 500, 1000, 2000 years, but alas we can't. By just looking at such a tiny snippet of time, I don't think you get an accurate picture at all.

Edited February 9, 2008 by ribster

[Stratos Ferric]

As with my earlier post, I would be interested in going further back than that, i.e. 500, 1000, 2000 years, but alas we can't. By just looking at such a tiny snippet of time, I don't think you get an accurate picture at all.

You can get an accurate picture, I think your point is the extent to which the present dearth of snow is unusual in all history. It's an interesting question if you're looking for straws to clutch, but it doesn't alter the current facts of the matter. However you carve it up, right across the UK, we have far less snow than we used to have. The snow window is shorter, events are less frequent, and they are less intense and of shorter duration when they do occur.

[Snowly does it]

You can get an accurate picture, I think your point is the extent to which the present dearth of snow is unusual in all history. It's an interesting question if you're looking for straws to clutch, but it doesn't alter the current facts of the matter. However you carve it up, right across the UK, we have far less snow than we used to have. The snow window is shorter, events are less frequent, and they are less intense and of shorter duration when they do occur.

I am not sure the snow window is shorter though - recent history shows snow events in November and March and even April as recently as 2006 - smaller certainly, shorter? I'd say not - the potential shrinking, but not the timescale in which the potential occurs. Other than that, agree entirely, I think it may well be the case that the Beast cannot bite, we find ourselves outside the cage and unable to clamber back in.

[03jtrickey]

Good afternoon from Cheltenham in midwinter! It's 16C with wall-to-wall sunshine and not a breath of wind. I propose we abolish winter and have a "late autumn" from November to February, and "early spring" from February until March! It would certainly make more sense since a high of 16C wouldn't be too shocking in May or June...

[Wolfspirit]

Indeed .. and still the global warming sceptics crack on about it being a pile of whooey! I think not.

[Red Raven]

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

Here is an interesting site detailing how snowy winters have been since 1875. We have not had a very snowy winter since 1978/79 and nothing above average for over 10 years.

c

Using that data I've made a crude graph from it. as you can see the trend line is down.

I set very snowy as 4, snowy - 3, average - 2, and little - 1

[Bobby]

I myself cannot remember a winter in my lifetime with not a flake of snow, which is what we've had so far. February isn't looking good for it either. I've never seen a winter so bad at this stage. We've had winters without a decent covering but we've always had at least a dusting or falling snow that didn't settle. Absoltuely nothing at all this winter. Really disturbing.

All this is during the solar minimum and with a La Nina. God help us when we're getting to the solar maximum and with an El Nino. There won't be any resemblence of a winter at all. Almost there already.

Oh well.

[WBSH]

Very little to speak of in terms of winter here as well, apart from the frosty spell mid December and a single, measly snow flurry in early Jan, it has been, by and large, a non winter.

I thought it couldn't be as bad as last winter (06/07), but it turns out, barring a complete miracle, it will be!

Ah well, at least next winter shouldn't be as bad

...

Oh wait

[Norrance]

Interesting, Might just try emailing the Met Office and see what response I get. Cheers.

Go for it. They are very good especially if the request is for educational purposes [not over complex]and guarantee a reply in 4 working days if I remember correctly.

[wysiwyg]

All this is during the solar minimum and with a La Nina. God help us when we're getting to the solar maximum and with an El Nino. There won't be any resemblence of a winter at all. Almost there already.

Happy to be corrected on this but I thought that La Nina was responsible for our relatively mild unsettled pattern to a degree as is El Nino and that neutral ENSOs lead us to be a bit cooler.

Not sure about the solar minimum - not certain we are there yet or when the next cycle starts and there must by definition of the mechanisms be some lag in there if the link with climate is true. :lol:

[toonstriker]

Dunno if many people have heard this song, but at times the chorus couldn't be more apt.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=r0_Ch79_bDc

[Jack Wales]

Yes it does seem to be the case that we are in a record breaking cycle of mild winters, I wore shorts today for the first time this year and did not feel cold at all. Also this is the first winter in living memory where I have not seen a single snow flake (which is unusal in this part of Wales).

Happy to be corrected on this but I thought that La Nina was responsible for our relatively mild unsettled pattern to a degree as is El Nino and that neutral ENSOs lead us to be a bit cooler.

Yes you are correct that with the moderate La nina, we should have expected the ENSO to have an overriding effect on our weather but not to the extent we have observed. One may have expected the strong ely QBO and favourable SST's to have resulted in cold incursions but instead our main cold spell being the result of an inversion.

Edited February 9, 2008 by Jack Wales

[ribster]

You can get an accurate picture, I think your point is the extent to which the present dearth of snow is unusual in all history. It's an interesting question if you're looking for straws to clutch, but it doesn't alter the current facts of the matter. However you carve it up, right across the UK, we have far less snow than we used to have. The snow window is shorter, events are less frequent, and they are less intense and of shorter duration when they do occur.

You're missing the point SF, nothing to do with straw clutching, I'm all too aware of the CURRENT situation. Are you that confident that this will be the case in 20, 50, 100, 500 years time? I think it's highly likely that people will be complaining about the long winters, then some time after that the lack of snow, so on and so forth. However, I know you won't agree with that as you are from a certain school of thinking, and before you respond with 'realism', I've saved you the trouble. Sadly, neither of us will be around to know, but I certainly don't believe we are on the express train to climate oblivion.