Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Melanie

Recommended Posts

Tropical Cyclone Melanie has formed, north of Port Hedland, Northwest Australia. Low shear, good outflow and hot sea temps will ensure Melanie will strengthen quite quickly. Expected to be a cat 3 on the Australian scale by the end of the forecast period, a high cat 1 on the saffir-simpson scale, although there is scope for Melanie to be a lot stronger than this. Quite a large area is at risk of seeing a strong cyclone in the coming days as shown by the BOM.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Melanie will bring some welcome rain to the area, but it's likely to be destructive too. One to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was a tropical Cyclone called Melanie back in 1996 - I thought they could not re-use names!? Anyone know why they have this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perth have three naming lists, which are not restarted every year but are used until exhausted. Once all the names in the three lists have been used, naming begins again at the top of the first list. As Melanie was not retired in 1996 it is being used again now. It's basically the same as Atlantic lists: only retired names are not used again. The only difference being that Perth doesn't move on to the next list at the beginning of the new season, they just carry on with the current list eg. Kara was the last storm last season and this year we've had Lee and now Melanie. You'll probably find that there has been a Lee and Kara before too.

Better explained here: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/abou...one-names.shtml

Anyway, Melanie has continued to strengthen and is now at 40kts according to the JTWC. The JTWC have it recurving westwards out to sea and while BOM indicate this may occur, they are also saying a more southward or southeastward motion is still possible which will bring it closer to land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Storm Alert issued at 28 Dec, 2007 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELANIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

an update

Storm Alert issued at 29 Dec, 2007 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELANIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropical Cyclone Melanie has recently taken a west southwesterly track. Although the cyclone may remain offshore and not make a coastal crossing, there is still a potential for gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour developing in coastal communities west of Port Hedland on Sunday. Significant rainfall accumulation is unlikely, but is still possible in coastal parts of the west Pilbara.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Residents of coastal and adjacent inland communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

 

post-7877-1198927652_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The curve westwards has begun due to a subtropical ridge to the south of Melanie exerting it's steering influence. This puts places east of Port Hedland more unlikely to feel any severe effects from Melanie. As Cookie's update shows, places around and east of Exmouth are likely to see strong winds and heavy rains from Melanie.

Melanie has continued to strengthen as waters are very warm and outflow is good. The JTWC has Melanie at 55kts and the BOM also have it at 55kt gusting 80kt which makes it a category 2 on the Australian scale. Melanie will continue to strengthen as it heads southwestwards but after 48hrs sea temps on the track will become cooler and outflow will become restricted which should induce a slow weakening trend.

It looks more like now that Melanie will provide some useful rain, not widespread damage but things can still change if Melanie decides to get even nearer to the coast.

Thanks for those updates Cookie and Icer although you may want to provide a link along with that image Icer as there may be copyright issues. Better to be safe :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks less likely that anywhere except the Exmouth area will see any appreciable rainfall now, as the southwest track continues. The rain is badly needed but the only way for the rainfall risk to increase is for the ridge to the south to weaken allowing Melanie to turn more southwards. But this solution is not favoured at the moment. Up to 60kts according to the latest JTWC advisory, and the eye is not yet visable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

update

Storm Alert issued at 29 Dec, 2007 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELANIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

its been gud to get a bit of action been bit quite of late

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Melanie is now on a weakening trend as shear and low sea temps begin to take their toll on her. Dissapation is called for by 48hrs, maybe sooner.

As we go into the new year there are two other invests in the south Indian Ocean, the one in the Mozambique channel looks very interesting, will make a new thread if it develops. JTWC have a TCFA on it and as it is so near land it may cause problems. As far as Melanie is concerned however it's game over.

Satellite image showing a decaying Melanie (the mass hovering off the coast of Australia) and the developing disturbance (to the left of the image):

xxirmet5bbm.jpg

From: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...