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stormchaser1

Moon Phases

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Evening everyone

First can i say thankyou again for all your replies, much appreciated , thankyou again

Secondly

Ive been checking back on some data i have aquired , Whilst observing the weather patterns around each moon phase , ive also noticed that just before when the moon is Apogee . we seem to get more rain, Ie last month September the New moon was on the 11th October {same as this month} the Apogee was on hte 15th of September .Between the 15th september and 18th september we received 4.5mm rain , then the 18th and 19th september was dry,{first quarter} on the 20th september we receved another 2.2mm rain , and on the 21st we received 8.3mm rain.

Now this month New moon on the 11th apogee on the 13th, today we recevied 8.3mm rain

Question is , is this a Trend , or is this just coincidence

Hope you understand all that

nigel

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As a keen stargazer. I must say that my general inkling is that we do seem to get more clear nights around full moon, especially in the winter half of the year. Also a few days either side of new moon- I feel I see the 2/3-day old waxing crescent low down at dusk more often than our cloudy climate should permit. However the broad (5-6 day) crescent, half and 8-10 day gibbous phases I seem to see far less frequently- the last two I see just as often in daylight as at night. (Just a thought: The "Old Moon in the New Moon's arms" which you often see with waxing crescents is popularly supposed to bring a change to worse weather; is the onset of the cloudy period around half moon the origin of this?)

I've seen perigee/apogee cited as factors before; also the theory of "atmospheric tides" (the moon's gravity pulls on the air as it does on water, presumably with variations according to moon phase and location)- one other thing I've noticed is that many early Easters, which mean a full moon near the spring equinox, have warm settled weather (1989. 1997, 2002), while those that fall near the middle of April (half moon near the equinox) are more often wet and dull (many in the 90s)

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Evening everyone

remember we mentioned about October 26th being a full moon and the moon will also be in Perigee on the same day, Also we mentioned about this could be a very wet and windy period

, well ive just had a look at the 12z models and looks whats showing. I know this is FI at the moment but

Personally i dont think this will be downgraded , and i think a sharp eye should be kept on this one

REMEMEBER OCTOBER 26TH !!

NIGEL

ps ignore the last chart , that was for the 23rd , i downloaded that one by mistake

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Morning everyone

Is there anyone out there who could tell me what the official conversion rate for converting km to miles is please?? ive looked over the Net and found a few answers , 1.60934miles is equal to 1km. another site tells me that 0.62miles is equivelent to to 1 km, there is a reason why i posted this in this thread , which i shall post when i gain the proper answer {if there is one}

Nigel

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Morning everyone

Is there anyone out there who could tell me what the official conversion rate for converting km to miles is please?? ive looked over the Net and found a few answers , 1.60934miles is equal to 1km. another site tells me that 0.62miles is equivelent to to 1 km, there is a reason why i posted this in this thread , which i shall post when i gain the proper answer {if there is one}

Nigel

0.621 miles to a kilometer according to Wikipedia.

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Thanks Pottyproof and Magpie ,

Yes that looks like a decent tool to have pottyproof, ive bookmarked it , thankyou

Anyway today the moon is Apogee [furthest away] in 13 days time it will be perigee (closest point to the eart)

Now with my calculations the moon should take 0.0275miles per second to reach perigee in 13 days time

here is a breakdown

13 days= 30905.329 miles

daily= 2377.333 miles

hourly= 99.055 miles

minute= 1.6509 miles

second= 0.0275 miles

At the moment the moon is 406489km away

by the 26th it will be 356754km away

Currently the moon is new , 13 days time it will be full

Question ,

I wonder how long the moon stays at Apogee before it actually starts drawing closer to the earth Apogee was at 0954hrs this morning whilst the perigee will be at 1152 hours on the 26th

Hope ive made sense out of that question!

Nigel

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I just think that, as somebody above has already suggested, if the moon's phases had any really measurable effect on weather then meteorolgists and scientists would have measured it by now - and made use of it? The only reason that I can think of that expains why lunar effects are not included in model forecasting, is because they are not measurable in any meaningful way?

Only my opinion though, so do correct me if I am wrong... ;)

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Morning Pete

Everyone has the right to view there own opinion on any subject ..

Nigel

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Morning Pete

Everyone has the right to view there own opinion on any subject ..

Nigel

Quite right, Nigel... ;)

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hi nigel following this thread with some interest , i,ve sign on with this site its free

http://www.heavens-above.com/

mainly to get sighting times for the international space station but there is a lot of other data there too

their daily lunar data also gives the range historical and predicted so here goes

wed 10 oct 404,055 km

thur 11 oct 405,506 km

fri 12 oct 406,331 km

sat 13 oct 406,444 km

sun 14 oct 405,742 km

mon 15 oct 404,121 km

after that date it appears to get faster as it heads towards perigee

cheers

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Hi Blackdown

Ive been using that site for quite some time now , and personally i find it a good site

Nigel

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Hey Pete! you could say the same for tides (in that only a 'special set of circumstances/conditions' lead to 'problematic tides') but if you were out for a paddle and ran into the Yangtze tidal bore you'd wish you'd have been wised up. The 'forcasts' are always full of 'queerities' and we blame our 'incomplete knowledge' for the errors (sting Jet,rolling wave et al) maybe Nigel is filling one of those Nuances?

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hi nigel.

any more updates for us on the october the 26 charts?

thanks cookie :rolleyes:

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Morning everyone

Cookie update using the 18z charts from last night

nigel

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Hey Pete! you could say the same for tides (in that only a 'special set of circumstances/conditions' lead to 'problematic tides') but if you were out for a paddle and ran into the Yangtze tidal bore you'd wish you'd have been wised up. The 'forcasts' are always full of 'queerities' and we blame our 'incomplete knowledge' for the errors (sting Jet,rolling wave et al) maybe Nigel is filling one of those Nuances?

Not really, IMO...Tides are measurable and that is my point. :rofl:

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Not really, IMO...Tides are measurable and that is my point. :)

So if it is difficult ,or we haven't the 'sophistication' yet to measure the effect it just doesn't exist? Randi wouldn't be pleased with that stance would he? (tee Hee).

I ,for one, would only be looking for 'tweaks' ,over a very short period of time, to emerging weather systems (damping them down or augmenting them) or similar to existing weather systems. As we found with the 87' storm a few hours of unexpected ramping up can mean a lot on the ground (and the loss of life this can cause).

As we become ever more sophisticated in our forcasting techniques surely we must use all that has an influence, however diddy it may be, if we are to avoid nasty little surprises!

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So if it is difficult ,or we haven't the 'sophistication' yet to measure the effect it just doesn't exist? Randi wouldn't be pleased with that stance would he? (tee Hee).

I ,for one, would only be looking for 'tweaks' ,over a very short period of time, to emerging weather systems (damping them down or augmenting them) or similar to existing weather systems. As we found with the 87' storm a few hours of unexpected ramping up can mean a lot on the ground (and the loss of life this can cause).

As we become ever more sophisticated in our forcasting techniques surely we must use all that has an influence, however diddy it may be, if we are to avoid nasty little surprises!

No no GW...I am not saying that there is no effect. Just that it may be so small as to be insignificant...Why factor an insignificant or unmeasurable variable into the equation, when computer time is precious?

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No no GW...I am not saying that there is no effect. Just that it may be so small as to be insignificant...Why factor an insignificant or unmeasurable variable into the equation, when computer time is precious?

Oh I wholly agree Pete but , in the fullness of time, anything that has effect (however small it's individual impact.....the worst disasters are a collaboration of normally 'safe' inputs leading to something very different) will have to be included for the sake of accuracy (and the way processors are snowballing in capacity and speed it may not be far away! esp. the 3rd generation chips).

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Oh I wholly agree Pete but , in the fullness of time, anything that has effect (however small it's individual impact.....the worst disasters are a collaboration of normally 'safe' inputs leading to something very different) will have to be included for the sake of accuracy (and the way processors are snowballing in capacity and speed it may not be far away! esp. the 3rd generation chips).

Well I cannae argue with that! :doh:

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Evening everyone

Oct 19th the moon will be in First quarter {4 days time}

Today the 15th October we have had wind and some heavy rain in the last few hours, infact 4.5mm has fallen since 1800hrs,] also it has been very windy

IS THIS COINCIDENCE????

last month the first quarter also fell on the 19th [september} now last month on the 15th/ and 16th we also had rain and wind

Is this a Trend , we are seeing , rain and wind just before a first quarter , ??? mmmm i wonder !!!

will have to look at some more data regarding this

nigel

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As you know, I have been doing research in this general area. For the Toronto temperature series, running 1840-present, I found some significant temperature peaks around the winter full and new moons, when they are reinforced by northern and southern declination maxima.

I also found that there were second-order variations suggesting that the timing of the warm pulse, or in other words low pressure passing by to the north, might be further predictable according to other variables that would place the timing lines for such systems.

So far I have not had time to number crunch daily temps for the UK although I do have them on my computer here (one of the 372 if you're following some other thread). I am looking forward to doing this soon, starting with Dec-Jan when the full and new moon events postulated in the research have appeared strongest in the seasons I have been following in real time and also in historical weather maps.

On the other hand, most of the other possible signatures from lunar cycles appear to be damped out by large amounts of oscillation in the timing structure. In plain English, what this means, I think, is that the events take place but not in the same location each time, so the randomness of location cancels out the signals. However, the actual events are fairly strong and if one has some system of finding verifiable timing lines, then the spread over the map will be overcome -- it's something similar to having a better system for predicting severe storms, you know the general area where they will happen, but you need more sophisticated theories to say where in that general area they will actually happen.

I consider it very early days in this research especially for the UK, but I encourage Nigel and anyone else to keep investigating, and to keep in mind that the system is almost bound to have a connection to geomagnetism so therefore it will be subject to drifts and oscillations as the earth's magnetic field is prone to have with relation to the mean.

To return to the actual analysis of Toronto data, the largest single temperature peak I was able to find was about 2-3 C degrees with the full moon closest to the winter solstice. The peak took place about 12-24 hours after the full moon on average, indicating the timing line was to the west of Toronto for the postulated event.

My study of the actual events in the data set revealed that there was in general a much stronger signal but on some occasions the low went south of Toronto and failed to warm the temperature at all, so the signal was an average of a strong signal and a signal that was observed at a more southerly location like DCA or PHL for example.

Although I have not done a detailed analysis for the west coast, it has been quite obvious since moving out here that you can expect strong storms in winter around the times of full and new moon also.

I think this whole area of research is going to require a mountain of detailed work, it's not as simple as some critics are saying, like comments above that "if there was an effect, researchers would have noticed it a long time ago." The problem is that the effect is not always in the same place, therefore the relation in time to the lunar cycle is not that obvious.

A similar situation exists in medical science, for example. It is pretty obvious to us today that smoking causes lung cancer. However, if you studied that phenomenon with some fixed notion of how long after smoking a certain number of cigarettes the cancer would appear, you might be lost in mountains of ambiguous data for a long time. This is the problem with the standard meteorological approach to all forms of astronomical signals in the atmosphere, researchers (perhaps understandably) expect the signals to appear in phase with the event each time it occurs. What happens instead is that a moving system of timing structure captures the energy and it shows up in a somewhat different place each time. However, the timing lines are revealed by studying where the equilibrium points of the system lie. In the case of the UK, the timing line for events lies to the west of Ireland, running SE across s.w. Ireland into France. This is the zone where you would most likely find the resultant low pressure events from strong signals such as full and new moon. But some cases may be further east or west as second-order functions of the earth's magnetic field cause a pendulum effect in the timing structure.

There's a full moon and northern max event on 24 Dec at 01h, so we should see a strong low forming to the west of Ireland around the 22nd-23rd and moving across the British Isles around the 24th. I expect the timing lines to be near their average position at this time so the timing should not be disrupted. Two other northern max events (these I have found are stronger than full moon events) occur around 1 and 28 November. Southern max is also a strong event producer in this research, those events are around 14 November and 11 December.

Last winter as you may recall there were strong storms at full and new moon in almost each case except the new moon before Christmas, and in that case there was a blocking high and the deep low went north of Iceland across the timing line.

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