Can an Atlantic Hurricane hit the UK ?

[Cat 5]

Just a thought.

After looking at the past track of TS Jerry, would it be possible for a system to continue on through the colder waters up to British coast lines?

I realise that it is highly unusual for these systems to head over to Europe but I recall that one last year made landfall in Portugal!? (or am I dreaming!)

Cheers,

Cat 5

[SnowBear]

There has been, although very rarely, long track intense tropical systems which have made land fall in the UK at hurricane strength but soon fall in strength once in the UK area. These are not true hurricanes any more once they reach here in the fact that they do not have the same mechanisms as when in tropical waters but they do have hurricane strength winds (74mph+ constant wind speeds).

I did have a graphic which I made in a hurricane tracks and record program a couple of years ago which showed the ones which made it to the UK, I will see if I can find it, or install the prog again and make a new one and will post here soon.

Seem to remember one was called Debby.

Edited September 25, 2007 by SnowBear

[Cat 5]

Nice one - thanks Snow Bear !

[Snow Queen one]

Vince is the one that hit last year.

[mezzacyclone]

Seem to remember one was called Debby.

Hurricane Debby 2000 or Debby Last Year SB?

Gordon brushed up against Spain/Portugal last september Cat, and brought some very rough conditions to our western shores and made a fair bit of News

[Cat 5]

Thats the one Mezza - thanks.

Out of interest, Gordon was last years strongest hurricane with top winds of 105 Kts and made a Cat 3.

[Somerset Squall]

Well I find Hurricane Faith of 1966 interesting- tropical up to the Faroe Islands?! Surely not?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Faith

When the storm passed Newfoundland, not only was it still a tropical system, it was still a Category 2 hurricane. Faith struck the Faroe Islands on September 5th with sustained winds still over 100 mph and only then did the storm cease to be a tropical system.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html

I'm guessing as it was 1966 that there was some kind of error of judgement because this can't happen can it?

[Cat 5]

Just read that entry on Wikipedia. So it travelled past the Faroes, through scandinavia and the low pressure carried on itno Russia. Hmmm.

Can you imagine if that happened today - the world would go crazy and blame global warming... But as this shows - freak weather has been occuring as long as records begun.

In all seriousness, analysts may well categorise this as a 1 in 50 year event but even so, that means we could be due another one relativley soon?!

[Callie]

It is thought by some that hurricane Floyd was a big contributor to the Great Storm of 1987.

Callie

[SnowBear]

Ok, have recreated the graphic I did some time ago as I cannot find the one I had before. It was Debbie of 1961 I was thinking of, which approached Scotland with 81mph winds and a barometric reading taken off Ireland of 970mb.

Lili in 1996 didn't make a UK landfall as a hurricane strength storm, but the remnants of this storm did pack 63mph winds as it crossed the mainland.

The 1883 storm that you see finishing near London, had a baromatric reading of 963mb taken at 52n 7.3w at 6am on September the 2nd. This one stung the UK with up to 92mph winds so this could be taken to be pretty much a Cat1+ hurricane hit. There are of course possible irregularities in the readings taken at that time, though even if a margin of error is included in those readings of say 10% we would still be in hurricane strength winds and above the 74mph+ criteria. Just as a side note, Krakatoa blew its top in the same year, 27th August, a few weeks before this storm came to the UK.

So hurricanes are by no means impossible here in the UK, many near misses, and if the conditions are right, we could have one walk right through at Cat1 or Cat 2 quite easily.

Thankfully it very rarely happens

[Paranoid]

Although it was long before any reliable weather tracking, the 1703 storm may have been a Category 3 hurricane and still tropical when it hit the UK. Winds were around 120mph (not sure if those were gusts or sustained (do we use 1-min or 10-min sustained winds in the uk?)) and the pressure was between 973 and 950mbar. Damage was extremely heavy and over 8000 people were killed.

On a different subject, the Hurricane Debby that hit Ireland was in 1961.

[kold weather]

I don't think its really likely that any true hrricane has hit the UK before...not in the way we know hurricanes anyway.

what may have happened with some of these systems is that they rapidly moved NE and got some help from Baroclinic forces which kept them stronger then the lattiude would suggest...in other words they were hybrid systems.

Given that hurricane Vince nearly died away before hitting Portugal I think its fair to say thats about as far NE as a true tropical system can get before they die away.

a true totally warm cored hurricane like in the tropics has never hit the UK...a hybrid system though moving at fast speed.

By theway Paranoid nearly all of those storms mentioned there are offically classed as extratropical cyclones, the ones that aren't probably were extra-tropical.

Sure Barometric pressures that low are impressive, indeed 970-960mbs are pretty low but then again nearly every tropical storm/hurricane that interacts with the jet as you'd expect at this lattiude bombs out as it meets the colder air and strengthens through Baroclinic processes.

So in conclusion, i don't think there has EVER been a true hurricane hit the UK, if a tropical cylcone can JUST reach Portugal without dieing then there is very little chance of it reaching here some hybrids maybe but nearly all will be enhanced more by the jet stream then via processes you'd expect from a warm core hurricane because the temps are just too low.

[crimsone]

I seem to recall som talk at the time that Vice could have been picked northward by a passing front which would have accelerated it towards the UK with tropical status? Or I may be wrong... quite possibly the latter. lol

[Iceberg]

A couple of phase diagrams of Vince etc.

Basically a Hurricane is warm core symetrical (i.e driven by it's Centre) in nature, sub-tropical is warm core asymetrical( front or trough enhanced). Extra-tropical is when it loses it tropical charecteristics, normally becoming cold core in nature as a pronounced cold sector starts to enhance the centre, with a strong warm sector still in the SE quad, essentially this temperature differential is the driving force behind the systems strength now.

The system could still look like a tropical storm with a strong CDO, even banding the driving force behind the system will be the cold core interaction.

Bit like the difference between a petrol car, a diesel and an electric. All look the same until you lift up the bonnet.

For the reasons above there is no chance of the UK being hit by a Hurricane (a tropical storm), there is the possibility of being hit by a very fast moving sub tropical, but very unlikely. And reasonable(although still unlikely) chance of being hit by an extratropical which although still named isn't a hurricane or tropical.

Couldn't find any def's so sorry if they arnt quite right.

Matt

[Cookie]

I dont know how true this is or not, but apperntly when a storm hit western isles north scotland. winds where equilvant to a cat 3 hurricane in places.

I dont think it was any part of a hurricane, just an expitoanlly low pressure

[mettalfabrik]

heres some charts from 2005/2006

[BrickFielder]

I think it is theoretically possible for a hurricane to reach the UK but once a hurricane leaves warm waters the warm cools within about two days changing its nature. What you would need is a very fast moving hurricane which would probably only be possible if it is sort of sling shotted by another hurricane. I think its called Fujiwara but Kold would probably know.

[kold weather]

Yeah thats what its caused though such a set-up outside of the deep tropics is extremely rare simply because systems are rarely close enough as the steering current sare stronger further north.

Its also worth noting that the transition to a cold cored system can be extremely rapid, esp where a strong jet streak is involved, I've seen times where a system has gone extra-tropical in the space of just 6-9hrs.

The catch 22 situation is the only way a system can move fast enough would be for it to ride the jet but in turn that would very rapidly cause a system to deepen in a baroclinic way and cause it turn extratropical. We saw that with Wilma in 05, it zoomed away NE but quickly became extratropical system, indeed it was an extratropical cat-1!

[Rustynailer]

In history bad storms have hit the UK since the oceans first thawed after the last ice age, but even though the wind was above the Hurricane threshold they were not true hurricanes as we know. Still very good fun though, I remember the 87 and the 90 as well as I witnessed both, they were like hurricanes, but were just what they have always been, jolly fierce storms, the further back you care go the worse they were at sea, because with sail there was little defense against rough weather, plus they weren't spoiled with radar and Internet gizmo's like we are. We are lucky we can look at all of this and either remember or wonder or both. I mean, how many people could read and write in 1703, at the time of Daniel Defoe's "storm"?

If there is another good one, I am sure when the power returns Net weather will be buzzing

Reminds me of a similar question. About tsunamis and the British and Irish Isles since the last ice age. I took a photograph at the Mull of Galloway that made me think :blush: (never as effective as mondys blue smiley)

Regards,

Russ

Edited September 29, 2007 by Rustynailer

[kold weather]

Should be noted we now have invest 95L. Now some may wonder why I say this here.

Wel lthe reason why is because its just 300 WNW of Portugal!!!

It may well get upgraded and if it does wil lbe the most NE system ever. This is interesting because while it looks subtropical it may have implications to how far north-east such a hybrid can form. While not exactly a hurricane even a subtropical depression/storm getting as far north as France is extrmely interesting.

Even more interesting is how many NE Atlantic systems have formed in the last 4 years, Peter, Vince, Delta, Epsilon and now maybe this invest as well...

[Paranoid]

Is invest 95L the swirl off the coast of Portugal on here? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/m7slp.html I thought it looked odd for a normal depression.

[mettalfabrik]

they mention it here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub....?area4#contents

this may be of interest too its a good read

http://www.soton.ac.uk/~imw/chestorm.htm

[The PIT]

Whats happened to it. Died a death???

[kold weather]

Didn't get upgraded BUT maybe upgraded to an un-named subtropical storm at the end of the season, wouldn't surprise me at all if thats the case.

[knightstorm]

We don't get Hurricane's in the UK but we get European Wind Storms, or as some people preffer to call them Atlantic Superstorms! Classic examples of these are The Great Storms of 1703 and 1987, aswell as the storms which struck last January. EWS's are often wrongly labelled hurricane's purely because they occasionally produce hurricane force winds, but as they normally occur during the winter months they arn't of tropical nature and don't produce anything like the amount of rainfull a real hurricane would!

The storms we get over here are minor compared with Florida hurricane's where sea temperatures are ideal for the formation of tropical storms at over 25centregrade. Most EWS's produce sustained speeds of 40 to 60mph, hurricane's produce sustained speeds of 75mph and EWS's produce maximum gusts of typically around 120mph a hurricane's gusts can regularly exceed 150mph and sometimes 200mph. EWS's also have no distinct eye formation, despite having a simular cyclonic spinning behavior. The worst storms in the world are normally found in the Pacific where they are known as Typhoons, did you know that the world record for a gust produced by a tropical storm was during 1997's Super Typhoon Paka when an unofficial gust was meassured at 240mph, this storm formed 2 seperate eyes. I bet that storm Paka hell of a punch, haha get it!!