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MDT risk Thurs 31st May


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Haven't taken much notice recently of potential over the Plains, but an Interesting set up this for the afternoon/evening over OK Panhandle, W. Kansas and Sern Nebraska. Triple Point and dry line look to converge over this area later 00z Friday, where SPC gice a MDT risk:

    post-1052-1180636544_thumb.png

    Some storms already over SWern Nebreaska and NW Kansas, look like back biulding:

    post-1052-1180636608_thumb.png

    post-1052-1180636622_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1216 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

    VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK

    PANHANDLE...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB....

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

    THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO ERN NM AND ERN CO...INTO SERN SD SWD

    INTO THE NWRN HALF OF OK....

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL

    PA INTO NWRN VA....

    CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LARGE

    VORTEX CENTERED OVER WRN ND/SD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH

    CENTRAL HALF OF THE U.S. MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS AS

    NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATE

    CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CO...THEN EWD ACROSS THE

    CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND UPPER MS RIVER AREAS.

    MEANWHILE...RIDGING REMAINS FIRM OFF THE SRN CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS

    AND OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT

    DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

    ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

    IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS...BUT MANY OF THE

    MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF

    THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER AREAS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM...OLD

    GFS AND NGM DEVELOP 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO

    CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE

    TRANSPORT INTO SWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORNING

    SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES DEPICT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM BETWEEN

    MAF - LBB EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO EXTREME SERN

    OK. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST

    UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND

    MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-3000 J/KG.

    MODELS ALSO INDICATE MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN

    PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WITH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-55 KT. THIS

    SIGNALS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THEN FOR MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT

    ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME

    FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED

    STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON

    POSSIBLY OVER ERN PARTS OF CO INTO NERN NM...BUT MORE LIKELY EARLY

    TONIGHT ALONG THE CO/NEB BORDER INTO EXTREME WRN KS AND ALONG THE

    NRN NM/TX BORDER WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE

    LOCATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY

    TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENHANCES UVVS

    ACROSS KS INTO NEB... AND ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE

    THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES INITIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE

    OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO MORE LINEAR MODE

    GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL

    LAPSE RATES. MAIN THREAT SHOULD THEN BECOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

    WINDS WITH MCS/MCC TONIGHT.

    Slight risks over next few days over the Mid-West, receding South to TX, OK and Eern NM by day 3.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Yes Nick, its all starting to kick off now by the looks of it...

    The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

    * Tornado Warning for...

    eastern Phillips County in north central Kansas

    this includes the city of Phillipsburg.

    * Until 415 PM CDT

    * at 327 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

    severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near

    Phillipsburg... moving east at 35 mph.

    * The tornado will be near...

    Agra by 340 PM CDT

    Kirwin by 345 PM CDT

    In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing

    golfball sized hail and destructive straight line winds.

    If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a

    sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest

    ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

    Lat... Lon 3998 9939 3968 9942 3961 9906 3993 9905

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