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Mark Bayley

June C.E.T

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Well you were nice too!

9 days left to attain just over 80 hours to bring it up to average. Certainly wouldn't completely rule that out you know ... probably on balance unlikely but in some ways the synoptics are pretty favourable for sunshine now (after today!)

MY GOD , you are such an irritating, argumentative person, you constantly disparage others opions, only to be corrected to your own detriment. So please think on.

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Still stuck on 16.1C

Slight drop as its now rounded up. Last time it was rounded up Hadley was at 15.8 so perhaps that will drop a point when they update later today. I'd expect it to start tailing off from tomorrow with today likely holding where it is or maybe slipping to 16.0.

Feeling very pleased with my 15.4 at the moment and will happily accept anything below that of course!

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Yep it's bound to go down over the coming 5 days. The last few days though 28/29/30th look like they will certainly stop any fall with temps getting up to the low 20's.

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I would think that 15.4c will be very close to the mark Snowmaiden, anything lower would be always welcome though, I had a feeling that we might see a fractional fall this weekend and not increases in the CET that some had predicted. It all hinges now on the duration of next weeks Northerly/North Westerly of course, will the cold air hang in there til next friday or even Saturday or will things start to warm up as early as Thursday, there seems to be more agreement for the latter scenario from this morning models but nothing is set in stone by any means of course. In a way we are lucky to have got this cold snap at all if one considers all the Mild air thats around even +10c hpa air up around Siberia and around the Baring Sea...I wonder what its like going for a paddle up there at this time of the year, maybe not, end up with radio active feet! <_<

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I would think that 15.4c will be very close to the mark Snowmaiden, anything lower would be always welcome though, I had a feeling that we might see a fractional fall this weekend and not increases in the CET that some had predicted.

Not sure if that's a ref to me, but if so I def didn't predict it. I said temps might even rise.

You may be right about 15.4C, but at the moment the last 2 days actually look warm.

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Not sure if that's a ref to me, but if so I def didn't predict it. I said temps might even rise.

You may be right about 15.4C, but at the moment the last 2 days actually look warm.

Agree with that if the Models are right but pretty sure CET won't dive below 15C thats pretty safe.

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Not sure if that's a ref to me, but if so I def didn't predict it. I said temps might even rise.You may be right about 15.4C, but at the moment the last 2 days actually look warm.
Touch of paranoia there WIB :D Not just you, there have been a few suggesting that the CET would not drop this weekend, its all been very marginal at the End of the day but looking around the CET zone Day plus night tep values have been slightly below the 32c required to maintain us on the 16c (ish) figure. IE night mins around +9/10c day maxs 16/20c.On the other hand if Erith was in the CET zone and had a weather station you would be right in that its been very warm around here the last few days and there would definately have been an increase in the CET and the rainfall figure would be well down too. <_< Quite amazing realy, its been fine around here most of the time, mild, lots of Sun/Sunny spells, and very very dry, even missing most of last tuesdays storms (just one 10min downpour and nothing since)...probably all change in the next few days of course.
Agree with that if the Models are right but pretty sure CET won't dive below 15C thats pretty safe.
Cant see it dropping below 15c myself, the cold spell would probably have to stick around right to the end of the month with a few very cold nights in a row and thats very unlikely to happen.

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I would think that 15.4c will be very close to the mark Snowmaiden, anything lower would be always welcome though, I had a feeling that we might see a fractional fall this weekend

Hadley down to 15.8 till yesterday.

15 looking possible for Hadley wiith 15.3 - 15.4 for Manley depending on the last couple of days of the month?

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Hadley stands at 15.8c (June 1-22). Manley is still at 16.1C over the same time scale thereby maintaining the anomaly that has persisted all month so far. On that basis Hadley may finish at around 15.1C by month end while Manley holds as high as mid 15's.

Edit sorry SM just seen your post <_<

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I mentioned earlier this year, I thought this June would be cooler than the previous 4 Junes. I can't remember where I mentioned it. I maybe in with a chance with the Hadley CET.

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I mentioned earlier this year, I thought this June would be cooler than the previous 4 Junes. I can't remember where I mentioned it. I maybe in with a chance with the Hadley CET.

You should have a reasonable chance as you only need a 0.6C drop - I can see 3 days this week with the mean 4-5C below the mean to date, which would give you the 0.2C per day drop necessary. Probably a day either side with a 0.1C drop too.

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I can't believe that I may actually be close to getting the CET...

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I sstill think that my 14.9C to 15.3C prediction will be on the mark.

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I sstill think that my 14.9C to 15.3C prediction will be on the mark.

For the bottom end of your prediction 12.4 required from here to months end based on Hadley and 11.6 for Manley - a little too cool looking at the charts, but the upper end is certainly on I think, and maybe Hadley can get down to 15

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I have attempted to run the CET until the end of the month based on model output (with some human input) - I will refer back to it during the next few days to monitor its accuracy - sorry if that is a bore for people - if it is wildly incorrect, I won't persist with it into July

These are my predictions

22/06 16.0 - Actual 16.1

23/06 16.0

24/06 15.9

25/06 15.7

26/06 15.5

27/06 15.3

28/06 15.2

29/06 15.2

30/06 15.2

Lets see if these are accurate

Not a great start - but I am confident of getting back on track by tomorrow.

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My 15.7 is starting to look a little high, mainly because I predicted a dry sunny spell from 23-26 June, rather than a spell of northerlies. However on the whole I am quite happy with the way my forecast has gone, including the CET prediction.

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My month end projection.

post-364-1182626554_thumb.png

Next week continues to look interesting. My instinct is that it won't be quite as cold as GFS has progged, for the reasons I've stated previously, but GFS is certainly going to take a dip. 15.3 now looks about par.

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There is an outside chance that I may hit bullseye with Hadley two months running (predited 11.9C for May and 14.7C for June).

It would require the Manley figure to come in at 14.9C or 15.0C which is right at the very bottom of what is now possible and also the 0.2C-0.3C difference between Manley and Hadley being maintained.

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I have attempted to run the CET until the end of the month based on model output (with some human input) - I will refer back to it during the next few days to monitor its accuracy - sorry if that is a bore for people - if it is wildly incorrect, I won't persist with it into July

These are my predictions

22/06 16.0 - Actual 16.1C

23/06 16.0 - Actual 16.0C

24/06 15.9

25/06 15.7

26/06 15.5

27/06 15.3

28/06 15.2

29/06 15.2

30/06 15.2

Lets see if these are accurate

As predicted back ontrack today - looking for a steep falling trend now

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As predicted back ontrack today - looking for a steep falling trend now

Well you'll need it in the first 3 or 4 days of the week because the last couple of the days of the month will not be below average in the CET zone. As usual the GFS has gone too low with temps. A drop inevitable, but I think you may be pushing it to get to 15.2C. That will require an average temp of 12C over the next 6 days. I think that's extremely unlikely ...

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Well you'll need it in the first 3 or 4 days of the week because the last couple of the days of the month will not be below average in the CET zone. As usual the GFS has gone too low with temps. A drop inevitable, but I think you may be pushing it to get to 15.2C. That will require an average temp of 12C over the next 6 days. I think that's extremely unlikely ...

Can't say that they've gone to low with the temps until it's happened. It wasn't long ago we were all slkagging GFS predictions for single fingers on one bank Holiday weekend. GFS was right. So lets wait and see what happens.

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Well you'll need it in the first 3 or 4 days of the week because the last couple of the days of the month will not be below average in the CET zone. As usual the GFS has gone too low with temps. A drop inevitable, but I think you may be pushing it to get to 15.2C. That will require an average temp of 12C over the next 6 days. I think that's extremely unlikely ...

It will be interesting to see how it pans out. Although we have over 70% of the data in place, the fact that we are coming off an above average base helps

For example - being 23 days in we need 2.3C below the existing average to record a drop of 0.1C in the average. If the average is already 2.0+ above what is normal, then normal conditions will on their own produce a drop of almost 0.1C. Obviously each day gets a little harder in the run but with a couple of days where the combined minima and maxima may not reach 10C against a running average of nearly 16C, falls of 0.2C or possibly 0.3C in one day are possible.

I agree the end of the month looks nothing special and hence the fall to 15.2C is achieved by the 28th with no changes thereafter.

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Stu 24 x 16 = 384

30 x 15.2 = 456

Ergo you need 72 / 6 = 12C for the remainder of the month. I think that's really unlikely personally, but we'll see!

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