June C.E.T

[Stratos Ferric]

Have you seen the latest model runs and ensemble agreement, June will be looky to come in above 15C.

Two of my four methods now call for a below average July, i will be backing a CET of 16.5C or 17C in next months thread however.

Whilst I wouldn't say it absolutely cannot happen, with more than half of the month gone the remainder would need to be sub 14 for us to get down to 15 overall. We've got at least three more warm days to come this week, stacking the odds against such an outcome even higher. 15.5 is more of a possibility.

[Optimus Prime]

The period 18th-22nd will have an average temperature of 14.3c according to the GFS run which is 0.7c below the average for the second half of June. About average minimum offset by slightly above average maximum.

The current figure from Haldey is 15.9c. By the 22nd it should be around 15.7c. 1.5c above the 61-90 average and 1.6c above the 71-000.

[Joneseye]

CET: (Jun 1-17): 16.1°C (+2.4 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1-17): 49.3mm (128 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1-17): 93.9hr ( 87 per cent)

Taken from http://www.climate-uk.com

The current N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.72°C

(difference from average June CET is 1.62°C)

Hadley currently on 15.9C to 16th June: http://www.hadobs.org/

[VillagePlank]

The period 18th-22nd will have an average temperature of 14.3c according to the GFS run which is 0.7c below the average for the second half of June. About average minimum offset by slightly above average maximum.

The current figure from Haldey is 15.9c. By the 22nd it should be around 15.7c. 1.5c above the 61-90 average and 1.6c above the 71-000.

My 15.8C looks quite good, at this point, then. Wayhay, champion

[West is Best]

My 15.8C looks quite good, at this point, then. Wayhay, champion

Not with the model outputs this morning it doesn't. It'll go down the shute under that cool northerly.

[VillagePlank]

Not with the model outputs this morning it doesn't. It'll go down the shute under that cool northerly.

Well, it felt quite good for what amounts to about 15 minutes. The model output could be wrong

[Stargazer]

I'm beginning to think my wild guess of 14.8 will be more like it...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm beginning to think my wild guess of 14.8 will be more like it...

I thnk 15 to 15.5c is looking good. I still anticipate it to perk up though again towards the end of June

BFTP

[Stu_London]

I thnk 15 to 15.5c is looking good. I still anticipate it to perk up though again towards the end of June

BFTP

Nothing on the charts to suggest this yet and ot would have to be a big peak to have a major effect on the CET in the last couple of days.

I personally think the CET will fall from the 21st to the end of the month but is unlikely to get below about 15.3C

[Weather-history]

Since 1870, 2nd half of June cooler than first half

1883, 1885, 1896, 1900, 1907, 1911, 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1922, 1925, 1931, 1933

1937, 1939, 1940, 1950, 1958, 1963, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1993, 1997

2004, 2006

Its starting to look a distinct possibility now

[Iceberg]

No drop again in CET, looks to be a very very steady fall.

[Stu_London]

No drop again in CET, looks to be a very very steady fall.

It may even rise today!

That said a fall looks inceasingly likely after the 20th

[Iceberg]

A rise looks very possible with all the moist air. The dramatic fall in the CET looks to be further away than it was a week ago.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A rise looks very possible with all the moist air. The dramatic fall in the CET looks to be further away than it was a week ago.

If the 06z is to be believed then a shocker of a summer is setting in, that pattern seems to reload and reload!

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Looks a possibilty that April will be sunnier than June for England and Wales. The last occasion was 2002.

Just an outside chance that March could be sunnier than June. The last occasion that happened was 1990

[kold weather]

Once you pick up the northerly flow progged the CET will drop, depending on cloud cover it could well drop rather fast, esp if its the type of northerly flow with lots of embedded fronts, as it mkay well be given the strengthening low pressure to our east.

My punt of 15C looks a touch too low, I should have stuck with my orginal 15.4C punt, that looks like it'll be close.

[Norrance]

Looks a possibilty that April will be sunnier than June for England and Wales. The last occasion was 2002.

Just an outside chance that March could be sunnier than June. The last occasion that happened was 1990

For Eastern Scotland and perhaps NE England April being sunnier than June is looking almost a certainty now. There is an outside possibility that April may also be warmer than June in the most Easterly parts of the North

[Optimus Prime]

Well it still looks like the period 20th-25th will have an average temperature 14.3c. Around 0.7c below for the second half.

The CET will be about 15.4c by the 25th. I'd say a very small chance of it being the first sub 15.0c June for 5 years (about 25% at this current stage) Lowest around 15.2c and highest 16.1c. 15.6c looks like a good bet atm so not excessively warm.

[summer blizzard]

I said around a week ago that i expected the CET to peak around 16.7C, and that because of that i esaid that expected the CET to fall back to between 15.2C and 15.6C, however the CET actually peaked at 16.4C, therefore i expect the CET to drop between 14.9C and 15.3C, personally, i think that this is a likely outcome.

[damianslaw]

If the northerly airstream digs in as some models predict with the azores high ridging north and east, expect to see some cool nights next week under clear skies. For the CET to get to 15 degrees or below we need some clear conditions, the number of cloudy nights this month has been the reason why the CET is so high, I can't remember the last cloudless night, a pity as June brings the longest days and those twilight nights really have left us alone this month...

[Stu_London]

High humidity and cloud cover have been the story of May and June keeping the minimas way above average

[Stratos Ferric]

Agree with both the above. Can't remember when I was last able to watch the world go by below on my weekly commute at 19,000' or so, and I was reflecting on the general cloudiness of late as I headed south on Monday morning between a sheet of stratus below and cirrostratus above and no little quantity of ACu and ASt between. Not that this is really news: we've been commenting on cloudy nights on here for a couple of years and more now, and pretty much the year around too.

Anyway, as I suspected in my first projection, the GFS model was just too cold at the start of the month, and hitherto we've been bobbing along just above the upper end of that first projection. I'm more confident in the model's handling for the remainder of the month, but still ponder on whether or not HP might just nudge in earlier than projected. Much also hinges in the northerly flow on cloudiness, bbut with LP nearby I suspect more of the same, though slightly cooler days than we've been having. At this time of year, though, daytime clearances could allow temps to climb quite reasonably in CET-land. Equally, at night the opposite could be true.

All that said something around 15.5 still looks pretty good to me. It could go a smidge either side of this, and my instinct is more likely up than down, but either way mid 15s look a good bet from here.

I said around a week ago that i expected the CET to peak around 16.7C, and that because of that i esaid that expected the CET to fall back to between 15.2C and 15.6C, however the CET actually peaked at 16.4C, therefore i expect the CET to drop between 14.9C and 15.3C, personally, i think that this is a likely outcome.

Looks far too low to me SB. With another 2 days of warmth yet to come we'll be up around 336 cumulative degrees by the c.o.b. 21st. To come in at 15 from there means 450 cumulative C in total. 114/9 = 12.5C average across the remaining nine days. No chance, not even a remote one, of dipping that low.

Edited June 20, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Iceberg]

The CET will surely start to drop from Friday onwards, but atm GFS even under the heart of the northely when 850's get down to -1 or -2 only progs temps in the three locations to be around 7 to 9. The problem is that by Friday there will only be 8 days left of the month a 15.5 or 15.6 seems very reasonable to me. Still way off my attempt though.

[West is Best]

We should probably take a step back and take note of just how warm this month has been given the relative lack of sunshine. Still on 16.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/

I'm not convinced the correction at the weekend is going to be that pronounced, but we'll see. Mid 15's looking good, possibly a notch higher.

[Joneseye]

We should probably take a step back and take note of just how warm this month has been given the relative lack of sunshine. Still on 16.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/

The Graph section on Climate UK illustrates the impact of high night time minima:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

Unfortunately high night time minima benefit very few people, which doesn't help with the perception of June not being all that great temperature wise.