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Mark Bayley

June C.E.T

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Post all your June C.E.T predictions here.

For the moment i will go for 14.5c :D

Which is 0.4c above average

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Which is 0.4c above average

It's going to be more than that!

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It's going to more than that!

Your right 14.5c is to low. I will change it to 15.1c wich is 1c above average.

However i don't think its going to be a way above average month :D .

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The rolling 10 year average is 14.9, I will continue to use this adjusted base. I see no heatwave early in June bedding in so at this early stage I will go for the 10 year adjusted by 0.5 upwards for the current excess warmth.

15.4 for me please

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I'm going for 14.9

Last time June....

JUNE

...had a CET greater than 16C

2003 16.1

...had a CET greater or equal to 17C

1976 17.0

...had a CET greater than 18C

1846 18.2

...had a CET less than 14C

1999 13.9

...had a CET less than 13C

1991 12.1

...had a CET less than 12C

1972 11.8

...was warmest month of the year

1970 16.4

...was warmer than August

1986 Jun 14.8 Aug 13.7

...was colder than May

1833 May 15.1 Jun 14.6

There have been only 2 Junes with a CET of 18.0 and greater: 1666 18.0, 1846 18.2

There has only been one instance of two consecutive Junes with a CET >16; 1785 and 1786 with 16.1

The shortest interval between Junes with a CET >17 is 4 years; 1822 17.1, 1826 17.3

The longest interval between Junes with a CET <13 is 65 years from 1749 to 1814

The shorterst interval between Junes with a CET <12 is 7 years from 1909 to 1916

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I think that it will be hot. 15.9. I may have gone higher but there may be cool nights early in the Month.

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13.0

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A pretty easterly month I suspect (though depending on where the blocks we may see some southerlies with it, esp later in the month.) with another strong block forming somewhere nearby, exactly where determines the CET, not sure it'll be that above average unless the block slides into Europe which it may do at one point. I'll go for 15.4C, only because of the warmth of Nw europe this year.

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Hmm, too early for me to get off my fence. I think anyone would do well to go visit http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html and note again that the current 'average' increase is something around the 2.0c.

So, at the moment we're 'probably' looking at around 16 - 16.5 as most probably. 17.0 is certainly quite possible, but I'd say the record is certainly just too far yet, even in 'The Jump' terms.

Calrissian: time for a movie ?

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Well I ballsed up last months prediction so I'm going for 15.1C this time around.

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Dumb question: are the temps you are all predicting averages for day and night or what?

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Dumb question: are the temps you are all predicting averages for day and night or what?

There is a measure of temperature, for England, called the CET (Central England Temperature) which is a measure of the mean temperature of England for a given period. This is about guessing that figure.

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Dumb question: are the temps you are all predicting averages for day and night or what?

Day & night - the whole month average.

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Day & night - the whole month average.

Ah, OK, cheers.

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15.3C FOR ME

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Here's my punt.

15.4c (above average due to cloudy nights and warm local sea surface temperatures)

A very wet month with low pressure either over the UK or just to the W/SW. Possibly hot at times in the South East - but below average in the far NW. With hot air to the East and low pressure clashing over or around the UK, there's obviously the possibility of thunderstorms too. The most notable aspect of the month will be the rainfall though and this could cause problems.

Basically I'm expecting the trough that's been around the UK in May to persist through June, but due to warmer air becoming available and sucked into the system from the East, rainfall intensity is likely to be higher than May.

:drinks:

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I've never entered this competition before, but June is my favourite month of the year so I'll make a prediction this time....but not til next week.

Interesting to note that at the turn of the century, June was one of only 2 months (the other being September) which had failed to show the marked warming observed in the other 10 between 1961-90 and 1971-00. Since then, the last disappointing June was in 2002, and even that was average by historical standards. The last 4 Junes have been very good generally, with 3 stonkers.

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Nick H;

You have missed one out. Between 61-90 and 71-00 October showed a cooling trend of 0.2*C. This is due to the fact that despite the 1960s being the coldest decade since the 1880s overall, the Octobers of that decade tended to be on the warm side.

It is true to say that until 2003 June showed no sign of a warming trend, indeed with a run of mostly average Junes throughout the 1990s and up to 2002. The last four years are showing signs that June possibly joined the warming bandwagon in 2003. If this coming June comes in above 15*C, and certainly if it is anything like last year or 2003, then we can certainly say that June joined the warm bandwagon in 2003, but if June does manage to be a closer to average month and at least come in below 15*C, then we can possibly say that it has not developed a warming trend.

Despite the lack of really warm Junes in the 1990s, it is true to say that we have not had a proper below average June (more than 0.5*C below) since 1991, which that was in fact one of the coolest Junes on record. There were two notably cool Junes back in 1972 and 1977, and those of 1985 and 1987 were quite a bit below average, and June 1990 was also relatively cool.

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Mays also only warmed by 0.1C between the two reference periods, mainly because there were some warm Mays in the 1960s as well as the 1990s, and cool Mays in the 1970s and 1980s.

However, Nick's post holds true if you use longer-term baselines; according to a Philip Eden article in the Telegraph a while ago, June (up to 2002) was the only month not to show any warming over the 360+ year period, with a 1659-1988 mean of 14.3C as opposed to the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 means of 14.2 and 14.1C respectively. September, though it did warm up slightly, also lagged behind the other months.

October did warm significantly, but the warming was concentrated between 1930 and 1972, with a slight falling off since, due to an increase in the frequency of northerly winds.

I reckon that the warm June 2003, much like the relatively mild February of 1988, will become remembered in history as the beginning of a step-change to a much warmer baseline for June, in line with the other months of the year; September's step-change started around 1997/98.

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January's warming trend also began in 1988, along with February and March, April warmed to a lesser degree in the 1990s but did not join the "bandwagon" until around 2002. May also joined the bandwagon around 1998 (although there were warm Mays in 1989, 90, 92 there was a run of average to cool Mays from 1993-97). June showed no warming trend until 2003. July and August are less easy to pin down, but there was some easing up from 1989 onwards. September showed no warming trend until around 1997. November showed no warming trend until around 1994 (although there was a run of mild Novembers in the early to mid 1980s). October and December are the two months that in actual fact joined the warming bandwagon before the annual CET warming trend started in 1988 (though the warmth of the post 1997 era is far more marked and consistent than the relatively modest warmth of the 88-96 era). October joined the same warming bandwagon back in the late 1950s (around 1957-1959) and December joined the warming bandwagon around the early 1970s, with a run of mild Decembers in the 1970s and 1980s and in fact a slight easing back since then.

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