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Costa Del Fal

1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...

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The UKMET are basing much of this on La Nina developing. If it develops, then logic would be that September and October will see an intensifying Nina. This does not auger well for southerly plumes, rather unsettled and, with SSTAs falling off across the SW approaches, feeling rather cool (but probably closer to average).

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Could the second half of 2007 be like a slightly less extreme version of the second half 1993?

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Been noticing a change in the direction of these low pressures. Normally they swing from a west , south west direction, how ever they seem to be coming in from a more north west direction. Its been showing up on alot of the gfs runs. Is that why the jet is more south in postion.

Two words - Northern Blocking

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I would welcome anomalous warmth even less if it arrived in the autumn and setup the sort of nightmare synoptics we endured from then on.

However, I'm afraid that could very well happen, following a relatively cool and unsettled summer and think the chances are high that will have some sort of repeat of last winters horrors.

I have (shock horror!) finally lost faith in expecting or anticipating a decent winter anyway.

Tamara

I think you are wrong T

A negative NAO winter almost nailed on I reckon - Might be as boring as the one 2 years ago but it won't be a 2006/7 (which actually was the snowiest in Central London for since 2004)

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....and a combo of La Nina / easterly QBO might prove quite tasty as well in respect of subdued jet flow, a discussion for another day I suspect.

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Yep GP, we've already seen the QBO at work IMO (I think combined withthe AO signal it goes a long way to explaining the wet June) and add a weak La Nina set-up and that argues for a very interesting set-up as the jet should be better buckled in La nina as well as weaker by winter time. The only concern i have now is if the La nina gets too strong, then there is IMO a massive threat of a winter dominated by southerly trakcing lows pushnig up against a Bartlett high to give a very above average SW/SSW flow but right now it doesn't look like the La nina will get that strong.

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I'm becoming convinced that there will be no major hot spells either this summer. I think it will continue slightly above average and unsettled with a few drier interludes

Hi Tamara,

I can't see stuff changing quick enough to make an effect. Insolation is now on a downward spiral due to shorter days, the effect of significant wet weather will stop the recursive heating process (due to the latent heat effect) and we're almost a third of the way through summer, already.

Looks cool, notwithstanding the odd 30/31C in the far S/E, though: at best, I would guess, average, overall.

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:doh:

Forgot that one thanks. :)

Not too surprising you forgot - we don't see that much of it these days.

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Not too surprising you forgot - we don't see that much of it these days.

Seen a gut full of it this summer! Southern blocking please until late Sept then northern block all you like until next spring!

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