06z model discussions

[Harsh Climate]

Nailbiting times at the moment! The GFS shows snow pushing upto northern england on thursday but other models goin aggainst it! :o

I fear that us in northern england may be hugely dissapointed as chances are the midlands/south yorkshire get hammered by many centimetres of snow!

Regarding the snow potential in Yorkshire over the next few days, Il be starting a blog a tonight so stay tuned fellow Yorkshirers..

[MKN]

So it looks like its all shifted further north again and I'm likely to miss out here. Are we too close in now for this to change again?

The 06z is too progressive some people say, but surely this close to the event, it should have the basics down and the fine detail could come later?

Also would the fact that this is coming up from the SW make a difference to this area, as most snow events that hit us are coming down fromt he NE.

The detail could change at any moment up until its actually on your doorstep, as to whether it'l make a difference coming from the sw, i would assume itl carry more moisture meaning hopefully more snow than most of us have seen for somewhile

[karyo]

What a brilliant 6z gfs! A Scandi high is evident throughout the run and another shot of cold air from the Northeast. Now compare that with yesterday's 6z which had everything blown away by the Atlantic and what you get is a big upgrade.

Karyo

[snowmadchrisuk]

thank tamara and wellington boot . only probis all i'm getting is this so what do i click on :

GEM Prognosen: Informationen

Vorhersagekarten auf Grundlage der 00z-Läufe des Kanadischen Globalen Wettervorhersagemodells.

Die Karten werden um ca. 6 UTC aktualisiert .

Europa: Europa und Nordatlantik.

WebtippsEtap Hotel. Günstig übernachten - über 66 x in Deutschland.

Handy + TomTom im Bundle

Warum die nettesten Männer die schrecklichsten Frauen haben!

chris

[Jude_foster]

So it looks like its all shifted further north again and I'm likely to miss out here. Are we too close in now for this to change again?

The 06z is too progressive some people say, but surely this close to the event, it should have the basics down and the fine detail could come later?

Also would the fact that this is coming up from the SW make a difference to this area, as most snow events that hit us are coming down fromt he NE.

Theres no way stevenage will miss out. Even if you get a couple hours of heavy snow before turning to rain/sleet.

Expect the 12z to fall back in line again.

In my opinion, aslong as you live north of the M4, you will see snow, whether its for 2hrs or the whole day.

Actually i even think central southern england will see a period of snow early hours Thurs, but will turn to rain mid morning.

Anyway as i say, its only my opinion.

[chilly milly]

The detail could change at any moment up until its actually on your doorstep, as to whether it'l make a difference coming from the sw, i would assume itl carry more moisture meaning hopefully more snow than most of us have seen for somewhile

Oh really, I didn't realise that, SW sounds good then. Thanks SnowTornado.

[wellington boot]

With regards this thursday, im holding my breath now. Because im basically right in the middle of the highest risk/highest gain zone, if you know what i mean. I should be in the firing line of the heaviest ppn to hit anywhere, the darker blue, 10-15 stuff, but when it hits is crucial. Temps look like they should be low enough here through the night into morning, but once it gets into the daytime, everything gets highly risky. So when is that ppn going to get here. It changes by 6 hours every run, yoyoing every way. I feel fairly sure ill see something white at some point, but whether its for 10 minutes, or 10 hours is another matter, as is the question of whether it sticks. This is genuinely a situation where all you can do is sit and look at the radar and out of the window. No model can give me the answer for sure

[nick sussex]

At this rate of backtracking we'll have a full blown easterly by next week as the models shift the jet even further south and realize as they get closer to the time that now is not the time to drag this on, just get to the easterly and be done with it!

[wellington boot]

Infact I can't click on anything apart from an amazon advert

its up at the top, where it says GEM. You click on the numbers in the serparate box.

If that doesnt work, just try wetterzentrale, and click top karten on the left hand side, then use the box at top left to click on GEm and so on

[Jude_foster]

With regards this thursday, im holding my breath now. Because im basically right in the middle of the highest risk/highest gain zone, if you know what i mean. I should be in the firing line of the heaviest ppn to hit anywhere, the darker blue, 10-15 stuff, but when it hits is crucial. Temps look like they should be low enough here through the night into morning, but once it gets into the daytime, everything gets highly risky. So when is that ppn going to get here. It changes by 6 hours every run, yoyoing every way. I feel fairly sure ill see something white at some point, but whether its for 10 minutes, or 10 hours is another matter, as is the question of whether it sticks. This is genuinely a situation where all you can do is sit and look at the radar and out of the window. No model can give me the answer for sure

Well said

[chilly milly]

Theres no way stevenage will miss out. Even if you get a couple hours of heavy snow before turning to rain/sleet.

Expect the 12z to fall back in line again.

In my opinion, aslong as you live north of the M4, you will see snow, whether its for 2hrs or the whole day.

Actually i even think central southern england will see a period of snow early hours Thurs, but will turn to rain mid morning.

Anyway as i say, its only my opinion.

I hope you are right Jude. How about yourself, are you in the firing line too?

Yes I believe we will all be tentively hanging on for the 12z....and the 18z and the ECM etc etc. I would expect the nearer the time frame the more they will have to agree.

[MKN]

With regards this thursday, im holding my breath now. Because im basically right in the middle of the highest risk/highest gain zone, if you know what i mean. I should be in the firing line of the heaviest ppn to hit anywhere, the darker blue, 10-15 stuff, but when it hits is crucial. Temps look like they should be low enough here through the night into morning, but once it gets into the daytime, everything gets highly risky. So when is that ppn going to get here. It changes by 6 hours every run, yoyoing every way. I feel fairly sure ill see something white at some point, but whether its for 10 minutes, or 10 hours is another matter, as is the question of whether it sticks. This is genuinely a situation where all you can do is sit and look at the radar and out of the window. No model can give me the answer for sure

I think as long as it starts to snow before the frost melts then the snow should settle rapidly so im hoping if we get snow it starts around 6am, what kind of accumulations do people think the areas that get snow will recieve?, metcheck saying several centimetres

[chilly milly]

At this rate of backtracking we'll have a full blown easterly by next week as the models shift the jet even further south and realize as they get closer to the time that now is not the time to drag this on, just get to the easterly and be done with it! :o

Lol, you remind me of Gandalf. On the 6th day look to the east.... or something like that. I'll have to look it up. It'll come streaming in from the east at the first light of dawn.

[wellington boot]

I think as long as it starts to snow before the frost melts then the snow should settle rapidly so im hoping if we get snow it starts around 6am, what kind of accumulations do people think the areas that get snow will recieve?, metcheck saying several centimetres

Well i hope it will start well before 6am, as every other run seems to suggest. But even with this chart, theres a clear area of 5-10mm (which i am very close to, if not quite in), and that is by 6am, so for places which are favoured, there could be a good few inches.

[johnholmes]

this is the text of our Alert just issued.

Its the first of a number I suspect and is valid only until Thursday evening.

We intend to issue another one about this time tomorrow into Friday evening, and then as required.

John Holmes

Senior Forecaster for Net weather.

This is Alert 1 of an expected number into the weekend.

It is valid from Tuesday noon until Thursday evening (06/02/07 – 08/02/07

Snow, Frost, Icy roads

Scattered wintry showers around some coasts through Tuesday into Wednesday. These chiefly for N/E Scotland, with a few elsewhere for N Ireland, and the east coast of England, and at first for N Wales and the Cheshire Gap. By Thursday these will be confined to eastern Scotland where they may become heavier and more widespread. A covering of 1-3cm in places up to Wednesday night

.

Slight sleet or snow will occur in the south west later today and into Wednesday but only a thin covering is expected over the Moors.

Frost will be widespread both early and late with icy patches in places. Lowest temperatures down to -6 to -8C in some parts. Frost may persist all day at higher levels.

The main snow threat begins overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The first depression will extend a trough into the south west of the country with some movement north with a minor low centre ending up off East Anglia

.

Sleet or snow will start affecting south west England and parts of S Wales by the early hours of Thursday, then into N Ireland. Along the coastal fringe no more than wet snow/sleet soon turning to rain. Inland and especially over higher ground, say above 1000 ft, then snow will fall. 2-5cm is likely to accumulate although during Thursday morning much of this will disappear again as the snow turns to rain on low ground at least.

At the same time the band of snow will extend further north. Its northward extent is still not certain, but probably from the Morecambe Bay area through the southern Pennines (including the Peak District) and to about the Humber by evening.

The areas mentioned include the south east and London along with the Midlands. In its central and northern areas 3-5cm on low ground with 5-10cm on higher ground, possibly higher on some of the higher level routes, seems probable along with drifting of the snow in the strengthening east to south east wind. During the day snow will slowly turn to rain at low levels and gradually die out. On its northern edge snow seems likely to continue above about 700ft.

During the afternoon and into the evening, the band of precipitation may extend a little further north whilst in the south it will tend to turn to rain and slowly die out.

A thaw will occur south of about sw Wales to the Isle of Wight.

[nick sussex]

Just to show how quickly the models are backtracking in terms of taking the jet further south heres todays fax chart for midday friday and the one from yesterday for the same time.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack2a.gif

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3.gif

Edited February 6, 2007 by nick sussex

[wellington boot]

hi chris

go to the wetterzentral website - and click on GEM in the models section top left corner

http://wetterzentrale.com

Tamara

tamara your a step behind me both times im afraid...

[snowmadchrisuk]

thanks managed to access the gem charts looking excelent for cold and northern blocking, only problem with it in the short term is it does not bring any of the ppn across the country at all. ? Is this still a possibilty that the ppn wont make it at all ?

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Jude_foster]

I hope you are right Jude. How about yourself, are you in the firing line too?

Yes I believe we will all be tentively hanging on for the 12z....and the 18z and the ECM etc etc. I would expect the nearer the time frame the more they will have to agree.

Yeah im just a few miles down the A1... Good old hatfield...

The reason why im quite confident is that i stopped at a highways agency depot this morning on the way to work and asked if they were expecting snow Thurs.... Yes i know they thought i was insane lol.

Well they said they have every gritting lorry out in herts wed night and all the guys on emergency standby thurs morn with a couple of inches forecast.... Well that was good enough for me,, better then any model.

Im glad i went and asked though, felt very embarrased... lol

[wellington boot]

thanks managed to access the gem charts looking excelent for cold and northern blocking, only problem with it in the short term is it does not bring any of the ppn across the country at all. ? Is this still a possibilty that the ppn wont make it at all ?

Dont worry about it. ppn will definately make it. Just depends when and where and what kind. So not too much we don't know then... As for GEM, don't get carried away with it - it may well have spotted a general trend, but much of it is FI, and it's not a great model anyway. And ignore its ppn charts completely

I'm sure I can live with it !

Tamara

yes i should think you might be able to. :o

Edited February 6, 2007 by wellington boot

[Pickles]

Thanks for that John.

[chilly milly]

Yeah im just a few miles down the A1... Good old hatfield...

The reason why im quite confident is that i stopped at a highways agency depot this morning on the way to work and asked if they were expecting snow Thurs.... Yes i know they thought i was insane lol.

Well they said they have every gritting lorry out in herts wed night and all the guys on emergency standby thurs morn with a couple of inches forecast.... Well that was good enough for me,, better then any model.

Im glad i went and asked though, felt very embarrased... lol

Wow, good thinking.

Well it looks like this is just the tip of the iceberg if some of the latest models are to go by. Theres plenty of speculation about more to come and I hope that there is more agreement this time as I don't think I could go through this on a regular weekly basis.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Nailbiting times at the moment! The GFS shows snow pushing upto northern england on thursday but other models goin aggainst it!

I fear that us in northern england may be hugely dissapointed as chances are the midlands/south yorkshire get hammered by many centimetres of snow!

Regarding the snow potential in Yorkshire over the next few days, Il be starting a blog a tonight so stay tuned fellow Yorkshirers..

I don't think the snow not getting that far north would mean West Yorkshire wouldn't get any of the white stuff. Showers usually get across to Leeds quite readily in a relatively unstable easterly flow, as I know from experience last winter (and stories re. the winter before that) Areas near the coast would be even more favoured for showers although more marginal due to winds coming off an anomalously warm sea.

I reckon that there will be more twists and turns. I think it's about 20% likely that the Atlantic will make it into most parts by Saturday, and 70% likely that this will happen by next Monday- that, of course, leaves 30% chance that the models might shove those lows even further south.

[VillagePlank]

I know the next 60-odd hours is exciting, but is anyone looking at the rather nice potential of FI? For instance take a look at this little fellow:

I don't recall ever seeing the PFJ that far south beneath us (so in all probability, it's complete rubbish) but nevertheless it looks, to me, that GFS is starting to play with some seriously cold potential for the last two weeks of February.

Alongside this we have a mainly negative AO for the near future with all ensembles showing negative by the 15th Feb:

* * *

NetWeather warning out, chaps; well done John, and team, a good read, and certainly useful for focusing ideas when perusing different and often conflicting model output. A big thumbs up!

Edited February 6, 2007 by VillagePlank

[summer blizzard]

I don't think the snow not getting that far north would mean West Yorkshire wouldn't get any of the white stuff. Showers usually get across to Leeds quite readily in a relatively unstable easterly flow, as I know from experience last winter (and stories re. the winter before that) Areas near the coast would be even more favoured for showers although more marginal due to winds coming off an anomalously warm sea.

I reckon that there will be more twists and turns. I think it's about 20% likely that the Atlantic will make it into most parts by Saturday, and 70% likely that this will happen by next Monday- that, of course, leaves 30% chance that the models might shove those lows even further south.

Do you expect a lot of shower development in eastern areas ahead of the main frontal band?????