Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Crepuscular Ray]

Sorry C.R.!

With a warming planet the number of Hurricanes is now expected to reduce (higher shear environment?) but those that survive formation will evolve into larger cat 4 or cat 5's. If the number of sun spots falls away it may be due to a more 'energetic sun' below the surface only allowing for the likes of 1158 to emerge(?) keeping the sunspot numbers low but their potential for impacts high (as last night X2 highlights)

I'm still getting to grips with our understanding of the sun and so the polar swaps and sub surface action is still not very clear to me!

Ta GW

CR

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Sorry C.R.!

With a warming planet the number of Hurricanes is now expected to reduce (higher shear environment?) but those that survive formation will evolve into larger cat 4 or cat 5's. If the number of sun spots falls away it may be due to a more 'energetic sun' below the surface only allowing for the likes of 1158 to emerge(?) keeping the sunspot numbers low but their potential for impacts high (as last night X2 highlights)

I'm still getting to grips with our understanding of the sun and so the polar swaps and sub surface action is still not very clear to me!

Sorry GW, not disbelieving, but where did you get that info about fewer but stronger hurricanes from? I've been following quite a few different forums about hurricanes and I can't find any hard evidence for it. I'd be interested where it came from, as all the data I saw suggest more, not less hurricanes, regardless of where they are on the scale

and an X2.2 which is what it was measured at is nothing special somewhere here between an R3 and an R4, and at the bottom end at that. We need a few bigger than that to have any marked effect

Edited February 15, 2011 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[frogesque]

X2.2

Been a long time coming. Pity this will hit on a full moon but beggars can't be choosers http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Now all we need is to clear this dreech SE coming off the north sea!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

It was bound to happen at some point - just bear in mind if you're one of those who think that low solar activity equals 20-foot snow-drifts for bits of the UK, it's less likely now given that we're heading towards spring and the La Nina is dropping back.

"like 'canes maybe the little ones won't make it into spots but the ones that do will become mega spots?" Can you go into more detail on that please - I know I'm ignorant about such things, but it means nothing as it stands as far as I can see"

I'll take the winter of 2014 as the year that this series of spots has an effect, we have a lagging system 3-5 years.

And anyway, about time the sun showed some life, was beginning to think the 10M Radio HAm band would be dead throughout this cycle.

We are still, even under NASA's revised estimates, expecting sunspot numbers of 50+ at max, and the rise to a maximum is not a linear progression, Hurricanes on earth and Plages/Sunspots PROBABLY do not share the same thermodynamic characteristics, so comparing them isn't so much comparing apples and pears as saying humans and trees as the same genus

Edited February 15, 2011 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Crepuscular Ray]

Sorry GW, not disbelieving, but where did you get that info about fewer but stronger hurricanes from? I've been following quite a few different forums about hurricanes and I can't find any hard evidence for it. I'd be interested where it came from, as all the data I saw suggest more, not less hurricanes, regardless of where they are on the scale

and an X2.2 which is what it was measured at is nothing special somewhere here between an R3 and an R4, and at the bottom end at that. We need a few bigger than that to have any marked effect

I guess with regard to the X2.2 flare that the raised interest is due to the fact that it's the first X flare for 4 years or so and therefore implies that activity is on the up, finally.

Anyone have any sources of info about whether the sub-surface plasma streams that apparently have to get to a certain latitude for solar activity to be noticeable (sorry, can't remember what latitude) have done so? It's certainly a sudden kick-off.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I guess with regard to the X2.2 flare that the raised interest is due to the fact that it's the first X flare for 4 years or so and therefore implies that activity is on the up, finally.

Anyone have any sources of info about whether the sub-surface plasma streams that apparently have to get to a certain latitude for solar activity to be noticeable (sorry, can't remember what latitude) have done so? It's certainly a sudden kick-off.

Yes, I agree, a X2.2 is a welcome change, I suppose my point was that it was being made to sound grander than it really is.

As far as your question about Latitude is concerned, I'm afraid I don't have an answer, but looking at 1158, it's on a very low latitude for a cycle that people think is still 3 years from the maximum (at least in my opinion) I'll try to find out what Latitude it's at, as spots generally start at the pole and migrate towards the equator I'd have thought they would have been at least 15-20 degrees further North or (in 1158's case) South at this point in the cycle

[Crepuscular Ray]

Yes, I agree, a X2.2 is a welcome change, I suppose my point was that it was being made to sound grander than it really is.

As far as your question about Latitude is concerned, I'm afraid I don't have an answer, but looking at 1158, it's on a very low latitude for a cycle that people think is still 3 years from the maximum (at least in my opinion) I'll try to find out what Latitude it's at, as spots generally start at the pole and migrate towards the equator I'd have thought they would have been at least 15-20 degrees further North or (in 1158's case) South at this point in the cycle

There's some sort of research that says that there are plasma streams far below the layers at which we see sunspots and which have a 22-year odd cycle - apparently they migrate from poles to equator and sunspot activity only kicks off when they get to a certain latitude. I've not seen any info on this recently - it's not so much about the spots as the underlying movements of plasma.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

There's some sort of research that says that there are plasma streams far below the layers at which we see sunspots and which have a 22-year odd cycle - apparently they migrate from poles to equator and sunspot activity only kicks off when they get to a certain latitude. I've not seen any info on this recently - it's not so much about the spots as the underlying movements of plasma.

Hi CR,

I think you are referring to the Conveyor belt so loved of Hanson and NASA. I think it, the conveyor belt, has been proved to exist, but it is also the mechanism that Hanson used to state, back in 2006, that SC24 was going to be a biggie. Think he got that wrong.....

I posted on another forum I visit that I thought 1158 was too close to the equator and received a response, from someone who knows much more than me, that is is closer to the equator than you would expect, but it is within normal variability. So I've followed that with a question of if he can point me at some research that shows what that variability is...

[picog]

What effects might we expect to see/experience on earth when this X-class flare hits?

[bobbydog]

What effects might we expect to see/experience on earth when this X-class flare hits?

any where in direct sunlight when the flare hits would experience destruction of the electronic infrastructure, similar to the EMP from a nuclear explosion - satellites, power stations, comms networks. planes will fall out of the sky. anyone outside, directly exposed, would receive severe radiation burns, anyone else would quickly die from radiation sickness. so basically, half the world would be wiped out

hope that helps

[Crepuscular Ray]

any where in direct sunlight when the flare hits would experience destruction of the electronic infrastructure, similar to the EMP from a nuclear explosion - satellites, power stations, comms networks. planes will fall out of the sky. anyone outside, directly exposed, would receive severe radiation burns, anyone else would quickly die from radiation sickness. so basically, half the world would be wiped out

hope that helps

So what is your job title at the Daily Express?

(He's exaggerating somewhat)

[bobbydog]

So what is your job title at the Daily Express?

(He's exaggerating somewhat)

[Nath]

any where in direct sunlight when the flare hits would experience destruction of the electronic infrastructure, similar to the EMP from a nuclear explosion - satellites, power stations, comms networks. planes will fall out of the sky. anyone outside, directly exposed, would receive severe radiation burns, anyone else would quickly die from radiation sickness. so basically, half the world would be wiped out

hope that helps

Dont forget the worldwide 5 mile high tsunamis and Richter scale 13 earthquakes

[picog]

Dont forget the worldwide 5 mile high tsunamis and Richter scale 13 earthquakes

Is that all — I'm glad I didn't get my hopes up!

[Coast]

Britain should experience spectacular Northern Lights displays from Thursday due to a large solar storm which could disrupt communication networks, the British Geological Survey (BGS) said. "Since February 13 three energetic solar flares have erupted on the sun and spewed clouds of charged plasma called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out towards the earth," a BGS geomagnetic storm warning said. "Already one CME arrived on the 14th sparking Valentine's Day displays of the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) further south than usual. "Two CMEs are expected to arrive in the next 24-48 hours and further...displays are possible some time over the next two nights if skies are clear."

The strongest storm in four years is expected to interfere with satellites and electrical networks, with astronomers in southern China already reporting disturbances to radio communications. The BGS Wednesday published geomagnetic records dating back to the Victorian era which it hopes will help in planning for future storms. "Life increasingly depends on technologies that didn't exist when the magnetic recordings began," Alan Thomson, BGS head of geomagnetism said. "Studying the records will tell us what we have to plan and prepare for to make sure systems can resist solar storms," he added.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g07eyePmVwPvxfrqNtxJpxu4GUyw?docId=CNG.ddc5cd0eed5e8a3157038ffbf32e881f.11

[Coast]

The flare spread from Active Region 1158 in the sun's southern hemisphere, which had so far lagged behind the northern hemisphere in flash activity. It followed several smaller flares in recent days. "The calm before the storm," read a statement on the US National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Service.

"Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late ... February 17." Geomagnetic storms usually last 24 to 48 hours, "but some may last for many days", read a separate NWS statement. "Ground to air, ship to shore, shortwave broadcast and amateur radio are vulnerable to disruption during geomagnetic storms. Navigation systems like GPS can also be adversely affected."

The China Meteorological Administration reported that the solar flare had jammed shortwave radio communications in southern China. It said the flare caused "sudden ionospheric disturbances" in the atmosphere above China, and warned there was a high probability that large solar flares would appear over the next three days, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/solar-flare-jams-radio-satellite-signals/story-e6frfku0-1226007799936#ixzz1EDAV9ejJ

[kar999]

DOWNGRADED

Unless you are way 'up North in the Shetlands or Orkneys

AURORA WATCH: NOAA has slightly downgraded the chance of geomagnetic activity on Feb. 17th to 35%. Those are still good odds, however, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[Mesosphere]

Mid Latitude's still at 30% , not great but if your north of newcastle i'd keep your eyes peeled just incase.

http://www.spacew.com/ , if the mid latitude light goes amber , then there's a good chance you'll see the aurora , red and it's almost certain

Edited February 17, 2011 by Calum

[The PIT]

Ah that's why it turns cloudy and dull. No chance of seeing anything then.

[kar999]

Ah that's why it turns cloudy and dull. No chance of seeing anything then.

Yep.. on most of the rare occassions in the past when the aurora has been visible this far south (it can happen in the midlands!) it's usually been hidden behind thick cloud.

Amber alert text has been sent from Aurorawatch Lancs. See the links in the pinned thread above

Aurora Links - Netweather pinned thread

Edited February 17, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

DOWNGRADED

Unless you are way 'up North in the Shetlands or Orkneys

AURORA WATCH: NOAA has slightly downgraded the chance of geomagnetic activity on Feb. 17th to 35%. Those are still good odds, however, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Complete rubbish, I expect auroras overhead across Scotland, perhaps even North England. As a result, the aurora should become visible on the horizon as far south as the midlands.

Obviously the cloud cover is a menace, as well as the full moon.

The first CME arrived at the ace satellite at 7pm. Conditions will gradually turn stormy tonight and into the small hours, persisting over the next 24 hours.

1 hour aurora forecast map using data collected from the ace satellite. Updated every 2 minutes (you will need to refresh this web page)

I would very much appreciate it if any of the seasoned weather experts could predict where gaps may appear in the cloud during the next 2 to 10 hours.

thanks

Good luck.

Edited February 17, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Mesosphere]

Complete rubbish, I expect auroras overhead across Scotland, perhaps even North England. As a result, the aurora should become visible on the horizon as far south as the midlands.

Obviously the cloud cover is a menace, as well as the full moon.

The first CME arrived at the ace satellite at 7pm. Conditions will gradually turn stormy tonight and into the small hours.

thanks

Good luck.

Is the KP-Index expected to rise later? , it's at KP 1 just now according to spaceweather.com

[Crepuscular Ray]

Still not sure it will be magnificent anywhere apart from the Arctic circle - from what Spaceweather.com have said in the past, the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has an effect and when it's north, the effect of solar activity is less. Guess which direction it is at the moment. Plus, X2 isn't actually that amazing, and will rarely make aurorae occur south of e.g. the north of Scotland. And then, there's the bright Moon.

But here's hoping...

Edited February 17, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[GeorgeWX]

Is the KP-Index expected to rise later? , it's at KP 1 just now according to spaceweather.com

Yes, I am expecting a peak kp of 6, possibly even 7 during the next 24-36 hours. The reason for this is we have 3 incoming CME's of notable size. The last of the 3 was the most powerful, this creates the potential for much stormier conditions.

I strongly recommend using the forecast map above to anyone who would struggle to interpret this data. The ace satellite is upstream taking solar wind measurements, this gives us a little bit of warning time (around 1 hour), the forecast map interprets this data to a simple user friendly format.

The kp rating that you are watching on spaceweather.com is updated every 3 hours and represents what has happened, useless if you want to see the aurora as it happens.

Edited February 17, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Mesosphere]

Yes, I am expecting a peak kp of 6, possibly even 7 during the next 24-36 hours. The reason for this is we have 3 incoming CME's of notable size. The last of the 3 was the most powerful, this creates the potential for much stormier conditions.

I strongly recommend using the forecast map above to anyone who would struggle to interpret this data. The ace satellite is upstream taking solar wind measurements, this gives us a little bit of warning time (around 1 hour), the forecast map interprets this data to a simple user friendly format.

The kp rating that you are watching on spaceweather.com is updated every 3 hours and represents what has happened, useless if you want to see the aurora as it happens.

awesome , thanks for the links!