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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    It is the first time the sunspot issue has been mentioned in the mainstream media. But as Antimild says, it's not exactly saying the ice age is around the corner. More of a case of no effect on the climate is the way I read it.

    Still as ever time will tell

    Edited by SteveB
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    There was discussion about the lack of sunspots on BBC Radio 4 a couple of days ago.

    I only caught the very end of it. Some guy said there was a solar minimum at the time of Napolean's retreat from Moscow and the harsh winter of that year......here's hoping.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    There was discussion about the lack of sunspots on BBC Radio 4 a couple of days ago.

    I only caught the very end of it. Some guy said there was a solar minimum at the time of Napolean's retreat from Moscow and the harsh winter of that year......here's hoping.

    It will be interesting to see what if any impact it has on this winter, especially as most are calling for a mild winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    It will be interesting to see what if any impact it has on this winter, especially as most are calling for a mild winter

    I am looking for the effects of the solar minimum in the longer term rather than specifically this winter. Having said that, if we have a repeat of last winter, I'll be thankful! :(

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I am looking for the effects of the solar minimum in the longer term rather than specifically this winter. Having said that, if we have a repeat of last winter, I'll be thankful! Posted Image

    Karyo

    I think with solar minimum, it is a case of playing the long game. It would be nice to not go back to those horrible mild winters though,some more traditional winter weather is what I am looking for.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    yep i agree and im very optmistic that things are going to go against the grain.:(

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Well, almost to the half century.....

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    Will the sun have the character to grind out a deserved hundred, or will the sunspots make the crucial breakthrough?

    Whatever happens, the longer the sun is in a quiescent state the lower the eventual maximum will be. Will the Kyoto Protocol eventually be subjected to amendment?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Stereo Behind and Stereo Ahead both show nothing imminent: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml

    This is the pits :-(

    Do you mind us pits are sensitive pits.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Yep 50 days according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm & http://spaceweather.com/.

    That puts us in the top 5 according to http://www.meteoputignano.com/SenzaMacchie.gif.

    2 more days to equal the longest run of cycle24. Can we beat that, & then can we go on to set new records?.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

    Interesting article here re generally low solar activity (in all of it's forms) during 2008.

    I know it's last year, but I feel that it adds a certain je ne sais quoi to our current close monitoring of the situation.

    Oh, I hope I haven't said too much. :) I'd hate to be the last person on here to say something before a spot appeared. :) I'm trying not to post too much, in an effort to reduce my own personal risk of being the one who triggers it off. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    http://science.nasa....olarminimum.htm

    Interesting article here re generally low solar activity (in all of it's forms) during 2008.

    I know it's last year, but I feel that it adds a certain je ne sais quoi to our current close monitoring of the situation.

    Oh, I hope I haven't said too much. :) I'd hate to be the last person on here to say something before a spot appeared. :) I'm trying not to post too much, in an effort to reduce my own personal risk of being the one who triggers it off. :)

    yeah me to it will do what it wants and it dont look like anything gonna happen in the near future.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Thanks Steve, so by tomorrow we'll be joint forth and by Wednesday joint 3rd! The top 3 is within touching distance and I am feeling excited! :)

    Karyo

    Yea definitely 51 Spaceweather just being a little slow stuck on 50, i personally count 51.

    can't wait for no.1. position [hopefully] it's gunnu be quite a w8.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Acording to spaceweather we are up to 192 spotless days in the year, or 80%. If the remainder of the year repeats the same proportion we would end up with 292 spotless days, which would put us second behind 1913 (311 or 85%). Of course, if every day from now until 2010 was spotless we would end up with 316!! Who's to say it won't happen?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sp%C3%B6rer_Minimum

    This shows all the minimums of the last millennium, based on carbon 14 tree ring dating or something rather brilliant.

    It shows Maunder was the most significant.

    You can see 3 minimums before hand built up to this minimum supposedly from the most active period being the medieval maximum (1200AD)

    You can also see how minor the Dalton minimum is really just a little turn down almost before modern maimum which practicaly goes off this chart.

    These ALL correspond with temperatures.:cold:

    However i do think GW is very real and has combined with the modern maximum to give today's terribly Mild winters.

    global dimming and burning of unclean fuels [literally creating smoke that blocks out the sun] has however counteracted GW somewhat to this day.:)

    Burning of fuels cleaner smoke wise but still just as high in greenhouse gasses which is beginning to happen more, Unfortunately will lead to more warming.

    Despite all this there are suggestions of cooling of 1.5C, more than global warming over the next decade.

    These are the raw factors and still don't include el nino etc.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Thanks Steve, so by tomorrow we'll be joint forth and by Wednesday joint 3rd! The top 3 is within touching distance and I am feeling excited! Posted Image

    Karyo

    Yes I kind of don't want it to stop.I will be a little disappointed when a sunspot appears.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Have found and copied from easternwx a comparison of our current solar minimum to the ones that commenced in 1896, 1909, and 1805 (Dalton).

    Can be seen that we are already passed the 1909 one. The first minimum at the start of the 1800s was reporting frequent, if not constant, zero sun spot months at this point. Atm we are perhaps in between the 1896 and 1805 scenarios? We might know by this time next year!

    Posted Image

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    Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Have found and copied a comparison of our current solar minimum to the ones that commenced in 1896, 1909, and 1805 (Dalton).

    Can be seen that we are already passed the 1909 one. The first minimum at the start of the 1800s was reporting frequent, if not constant, zero sun spot months at this point. Atm we are perhaps in between the 1896 and 1805 scenarios? We might know by this time next year!

    Posted Image

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    • Posted Image

    Plenty of chat over on Solar Cycle 24 about whether cycle 24 and cycle 25 will mirror 14 and 15 or whether, we are infact due to enter a grand minima, which would have much more climatic effect. Consenus would seem to be that nobody knows yet, although should we continue largely spotless through to the end of 2009 then a few minds will be turned to a Dalton type event or perhaps even deeper.

    As has been stated before the interesting data is not so much how many blank days we have (over 700 in this cycle and counting - cycle 15 had in excess of 1000 blank days) but how much activity occurs during the maximum. If this figure is very low (50 or under), a lot of attention will be on whether we cool significantly towards the end of the next decade

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Plenty of chat over on Solar Cycle 24 about whether cycle 24 and cycle 25 will mirror 14 and 15 or whether, we are infact due to enter a grand minima, which would have much more climatic effect. Consenus would seem to be that nobody knows yet, although should we continue largely spotless through to the end of 2009 then a few minds will be turned to a Dalton type event or perhaps even deeper.

    As has been stated before the interesting data is not so much how many blank days we have (over 700 in this cycle and counting - cycle 15 had in excess of 1000 blank days) but how much activity occurs during the maximum. If this figure is very low (50 or under), a lot of attention will be on whether we cool significantly towards the end of the next decade

    Yes - even if this cycle doesn't enter that greater minimum then there is a growing chance that the next cycle 25 will do. The longer the present quietness continues and the weaker the portends for the C24 max, then, as you say, the more that is in the bank regarding potential significant negative solar feedbacks for temperatures over the next twenty years or so.

    Touch wood - like others, I don't want to jinx things!Posted Image

    Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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