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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    What's the link Mondy? (Do excuse my ignorance of all things radio-hammy Posted Image)

    In straight forward language, the more sunspots, the better the radio propagation, solar flux and more chance of solar flares which cause aurora - the aurora can have a good (or sometimes poor) affect on radio comms too.

    All in here: http://www.nr6ca.org/sun.html

    Chris, I wasn't around during the peak times of sunspots in the 50's, but I gather ham stations were contacting pretty much long distance stations (say 13,000 miles away) using low power, basic aerials and bomb proof radio transmitters - all thanks to a plentiful supply of sunspots.

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    In straight forward language, the more sunspots, the better the radiopropagation, solar flux and more chance of solar flares which causeaurora - the aurora can have a good (or sometimes poor) affect on radiocomms too.

    Does this mean analogue radio signals will have to go as they become too scrappy/ stop working without solar activity??!

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    http://spaceweather.com/images2009/27aug09/coronalhole_soho_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=sp3jhto84ncc7udq7lij9qn3e7

    looks like the sun is about to get active perhapes very active compared to what it has been like.

    normally after this type of activity happens then spots start to form if im right then there could be the most active period since this minimum.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unknw.gif

    but im not totally sure whether coronal holes bring on solar spots so please correct me if im wrong:)

    http://spaceweather.com/

    Several holes have opened up in the sun's corona. A solar wind stream flowing from two of them could reach Earth as early as August 28th or 29th. Credit: SOHO Extreme UV Telescope

    Posted ImagePosted Image SPACE WEATHER

    NOAA Forecasts

    Posted Image

    Posted ImagePosted Image Updated at: 2009 Aug 26 2201 UTC Posted Image

    FLARE

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    CLASS M

    01%

    01%

    CLASS X

    01%

    01%

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image Geomagnetic Storms:

    Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Posted Image Updated at: 2009 Aug 26 2201 UTC Posted Image Mid-latitudes

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    ACTIVE

    05%

    05%

    MINOR

    01%

    01%

    SEVERE

    01%

    01%

    Posted Image High latitudes

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    ACTIVE

    05%

    05%

    MINOR

    01%

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    SEVERE

    01%

    01%

    sorry about the post made a right mess http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    http://spaceweather.com/images2009/27aug09/coronalhole_soho_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=sp3jhto84ncc7udq7lij9qn3e7

    looks like the sun is about to get active perhapes very active compared to what it has been like.

    normally after this type of activity happens then spots start to form if im right then there could be the most active period since this minimum.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r.gif

    but im not totally sure whether coronal holes bring on solar spots so please correct me if im wrong:)

    hi badboy,

    I am not sure whether there is any correlation between coronal holes and sunspots. However, I have to say I would prefer the sun to be hole free and look calmer than it does now.

    Regardless of that, it is another spot free day today. With a bit of luck, we will have a few more spotless days and make it to the top 3.

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Still waiting for updates, but it would be nice to get passed the 52spotless day run last year which various quarters are at logger heads over.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Coronol holes are dark, cooler patches on the Sun. At solar minimum (now) they are usually found at the polar regions, but during max can be found anywhere. The solar wind associated with these holes speeds up and sometimes can reach over 800km/s - this can give auroral displays but generally at higher latitutes (say Alaska).

    For those who wish to see no sunspots continuing, you'll be happy to know the coronaol hole has no correlation with sunspots.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Coronol holes are dark, cooler patches on the Sun. At solar minimum (now) they are usually found at the polar regions, but during max can be found anywhere. The solar wind associated with these holes speeds up and sometimes can reach over 800km/s - this can give auroral displays but generally at higher latitutes (say Alaska).

    For those who wish to see no sunspots continuing, you'll be happy to know the coronaol hole has no correlation with sunspots.

    Thanks for that info Mondy.

    And yes I would like to see how deep this minimum can get.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    http://spaceweather....c7udq7lij9qn3e7

    looks like the sun is about to get active perhapes very active compared to what it has been like.

    normally after this type of activity happens then spots start to form if im right then there could be the most active period since this minimum.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif

    but im not totally sure whether coronal holes bring on solar spots so please correct me if im wrong:)

    http://spaceweather.com/

    Several holes have opened up in the sun's corona. A solar wind stream flowing from two of them could reach Earth as early as August 28th or 29th. Credit: SOHO Extreme UV Telescope

    Posted ImagePosted Image SPACE WEATHER

    NOAA Forecasts

    Posted Image

    Posted ImagePosted Image Updated at: 2009 Aug 26 2201 UTC Posted Image

    FLARE

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    CLASS M

    01%

    01%

    CLASS X

    01%

    01%

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image Geomagnetic Storms:

    Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Posted Image Updated at: 2009 Aug 26 2201 UTC Posted Image Mid-latitudes

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    ACTIVE

    05%

    05%

    MINOR

    01%

    01%

    SEVERE

    01%

    01%

    Posted Image High latitudes

    0-24 hr

    24-48 hr

    ACTIVE

    05%

    05%

    MINOR

    01%

    01%

    SEVERE

    01%

    01%

    sorry about the post made a right mess http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Sunspots and coronal holes have NO significant correlation as far as i am aware. The recent complete lack of sunspots could continue or could end with a return to previous activity, we will just ave 2w8 nsee.

    There can actually be quite a lot of the holes in minimum years.

    48 days now on my count.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Although we are in the pits of solar minimum, prior to this long period without spots, the Sun did manage to produce a couple of C-class solar flares fairly recently, which is pretty good going for deep minimum. An X-class flare with associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) earth directed can cause major problems. (Solar flares)

    Large solar flares, coupled with high speed solar winds, are the big guns when it comes to seeing Aurora at these latitiudes. For example, to see the Northern Lights on a clear evening, a good sized M class flare (or better still an X-class) with a fast flowing solar wind (and the Bz component pointing south) would be ideal.

    Brightest and biggest ever solar flare with associated CME was in Nov 2003 - a monster X40. Thankfully it wasn't earth directed, or we'd have had grid problems.

    Last Aurora I saw here was in 2005, when an X7 flare produced the show. There may still be pics in the photo gallery (under Mondy - I haven't checked) but here's the tale behind it.

    So, you can see why I'd prefer a busy sun as opposed to this nonsense Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Coronol holes are dark, cooler patches on the Sun. At solar minimum (now) they are usually found at the polar regions, but during max can be found anywhere. The solar wind associated with these holes speeds up and sometimes can reach over 800km/s - this can give auroral displays but generally at higher latitutes (say Alaska).

    For those who wish to see no sunspots continuing, you'll be happy to know the coronaol hole has no correlation with sunspots.

    cheers for the info me is happy lol:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    You know, it wasn't so long ago scientific gurus were saying SC24 would peak in 2011 or 2012.

    A re-think is need, as absolutely nobody knows what it's happening. Kinda surreal in this day and age, that no-one knows!

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    You know, it wasn't so long ago scientific gurus were saying SC24 would peak in 2011 or 2012.

    It still might, it just wouldn't be much of a peak!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

    Coronol holes are dark, cooler patches on the Sun. At solar minimum (now) they are usually found at the polar regions, but during max can be found anywhere. The solar wind associated with these holes speeds up and sometimes can reach over 800km/s - this can give auroral displays but generally at higher latitutes (say Alaska).

    For those who wish to see no sunspots continuing, you'll be happy to know the coronaol hole has no correlation with sunspots.

    Sorry DXR, I disagree. The radiation from CH regions is indistinguishable from quiet sun regions except at the higher end of the spectrum - not cooler, or darker (in infrared to visible wavelengths), unlike sunspots. The CH's are always found at both of the poles of the sun, but tend to echo earlier sunspot disturbances towards the mid latitudes, as if they are remnants of the magnetic disturbance that was previously seen as the sunspot. Towards the solar minimum, CH activity takes over from sunspots and flares, causing auroras on earth.

    The CH areas represent areas of open magnetic field lines - magnetic field lines that do not loop back to the sun, but go outwards through the solar system to join the interplanetary magnetic field, thus are open to releasing plasma, which makes up the particles comprising the solar wind, way out towards the earth and other planets. This is the reason that both of the poles always have coronal holes, like in a bar magnet, the central polar magnetic field does not loop back to the other pole, but goes out into space.

    At the end of the solar minimum, even the CH activity dies down, because there have been so few sunspots in the previous months. As solar sunspot activity picks up it becomes more confused as both sunspot and CH activity increase, and flares become the major source of auroral activity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Indeed. Perhaps I should've made it clearer in my earlier post, that the CH's and sunpots I look for aren't the type you mention! A plage region with a CH substitute rather than a spot itself.

    As solar sunspot activity picks up it becomes more confused as both sunspot and CH activity increase, and flares become the major source of auroral activity.

    I think I mentioned this in a later post. I'm more than fixated on solar max happenings rather than minimum, and there is a great deal of difference between the two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    New link with Solar Cycle 24 spotless cycles included.

    http://www.meteoputignano.com/SenzaMacchie.gif

    Note these are based on NOAA data hence the 52 day stretch in 2008

    The number of sequences in cycle 24 compared to other recent cycles is staggering.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Moved onto 48spotless days.

    Now with that link StuLondon posted http://www.meteoputignano.com/SenzaMacchie.gif we are 7th in the table. I will not be using http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html because even though the current run is 48 days, I believe they currently put this run at 30days. This is because they recorded some small sunspot activity which they class as sunspots but NOAA don't, hence why the 52 days stretch last year is in the first table compiled on NOAA's count.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    New link with Solar Cycle 24 spotless cycles included.

    http://www.meteoputi...enzaMacchie.gif

    Note these are based on NOAA data hence the 52 day stretch in 2008

    The number of sequences in cycle 24 compared to other recent cycles is staggering.

    Yes Cycles 18-23 had an average of 1 run of 20+ days. Cycle24 already has 10 runs of 20+ days. Only cycle 12( 11 runs) & Cycle15 (15 runs) have more.

    http://www.meteoputignano.com/SenzaMacchie.gif has moved on to 49 spotless days, putting us in 6th place since 1849.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    wow this is now getting intresting.

    http://spaceweather.com/

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

    this is the bit i like the most.

    Solar minimum is shaping up to be a big event indeed.

    Edited by badboy657
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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Coronol holes are dark, cooler patches on the Sun. At solar minimum (now) they are usually found at the polar regions, but during max can be found anywhere. The solar wind associated with these holes speeds up and sometimes can reach over 800km/s - this can give auroral displays but generally at higher latitutes (say Alaska).

    For those who wish to see no sunspots continuing, you'll be happy to know the coronaol hole has no correlation with sunspots.

    Thanks for that info. I was wondering about this the other day. Another well earned point to youPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Found this on the BBC website about sunspots.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8224543.stm

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Found this on the BBC website about sunspots.

    http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8224543.stm

    note how nasa never totally dissputed it but put it down to puny lol.

    even though they cant even get there predictions right.:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    That's the first time I've seen sunspots and climate mentioned in the same breath! The BBC too. Wow! The warming alarmists won't like reading that. AGW is their spin, yeah?

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    That's the first time I've seen sunspots and climate mentioned in the same breath! The BBC too. Wow! The warming alarmists won't like reading that. AGW is their spin, yeah?

    They do take pains to imply that the effects of reduced activity would be negligible; flying in the face of the historical smoothed sunspot number v. global temperature correlation.
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